On TV this morning the head of the ONS was saying that they are carrying out another massive survey in relation to Covid 19.
Over the last few weeks politicians and scientists almost everyday have referred to one survey or another.
I have never, or know anyone who has, been asked to take part in any survey, Covid or otherwise.
Who do they ask?
Has anyone on here been asked?
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Haven’t they been doing fairly regular randomised covid testing to look for an indication of the percentage infected in the wider population? They’ve been based on a sample of about 20,000 I think so statistically it’s going to be very unlikely you’d be one asked I’d have thought.Originally Posted by Llani Boy
My partner was asked, and took part. Painless process in both senses - negative result.
My post was about surveys, not testing.
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If you’re happy to sit by, without picking people up when they express frankly daft opinions (even the Daily Mail didn’t defend Cummings for Christs sake) then surely by implication you’re quietly agreeing with them?
Presumably you just jump of the bandwagon when somebody makes a positive point that you’re in favour of (whilst desperately trying brush under the table all of the blatantly obvious negative aspects of their argument) 🤔
I don't totally agree with the above. Although i have contributed to this thread, it's p**sing in the wind really, people have formed their views over a lifetime, and arguing the toss on here (or jumping on the bandwagon of agreement) is hardly likely to make a difference to anybody's opinion.
I heartily disagree with elements of this thread, from both sides of the political spectrum. But i frankly can't be arsed to get into a prolonged argument. That does not mean i agree/disagree with the points made.
Without wanting to have a pop at you either... you have signed up and made 10 posts, of which a huge majority have been politically related. I know there's not a lot happening in the fellrunning world but surely you can find something else to talk about...!!
[QUOTE=Travs;662521
Without wanting to have a pop at you either... you have signed up and made 10 posts, of which a huge majority have been politically related. I know there's not a lot happening in the fellrunning world but surely you can find something else to talk about...!![/QUOTE]
and I'd suggest you don't rise to the bait. Someone wanting to troll and hide behind anonymity. We've had a few on here over the years.
Richard Taylor
"William Tell could take an apple off your head. Taylor could take out a processed pea."
Sid Waddell
So many conflicting issues around what information we've been given. I do wish the journalists who've had such regular opportunities to ask probing questions hadn't wasted the opportunity by going for the cheap shots.
If the R(0) number is 3, then why doesn't any of the survey/sampling figures suggest a far higher % of the population have been infected?
Statistically 3 would lead to over 10% of the UK population being infected in just 10 weeks based on one person initially and based on a 5 day period to infect (again from the experts as typical for CV)
That is from one person, and from Day 1 in the UK, we probably kept adding to the pool as new people added to the UK soup arriving from China, Italy or wherever, starting their own little process of contamination of the population a R=3.
Of course it's complex, because the new carriers coming in cannot infect those already infected by a prior person, so there is a slightly reducing effect, but 10 weeks really could see a huge chunk of the population infected.
Consider also, that based on R of 1, once you have 5 million infected, it only takes a week and you have another 5 million infected.
So in my mind, there are so many questions based around this R nought figure that seems to contradict much else of what we are being told.
Could it be that many in the population are not susceptible to the infection?
Could it be that the R(0) rate has been assessed as higher than reality?
Could it be that 50% of the population have already had it?
Could it be that the virus burns itself out? Maybe as reported from Italy, the viral load reduces as the pandemic progresses.
There's a recent assessment from Prof Simon Wood of Bristol Uni out there that suggests we had peak infection before lockdown.
It makes sense.
We don't know how many had it due to testing problems and many not needing a test, so guestimates were around 10-20 x the number of positive tests. But it could have been 50x, or 100x ?
What we do know is that peak deaths were around 10-12th April.
That suggests peak infection was around mid March, a week before lockdown.
Recall the very early Oxford assessment that countered the Imperial one?
Sunetra Gupta, professor of theoretical epidemiology suggested that only 1 in 1000 became ill enough to need hospital treatment.
This study suggested COVID was with us mid January, possibly even pre Xmas (we now know it was in France pre Xmas)
The Oxford report from March and the Bristol one from May chime with much of what we have experienced in the country.
The only thing missing is the number of people with anti-bodies, but that supposes people needed anti-bodies to fight it off.
It could be this has been a huge international over reaction.
Richard Taylor
"William Tell could take an apple off your head. Taylor could take out a processed pea."
Sid Waddell
One of my regular Welsh b&b's have stated confidently that they expect to be open for business on 13th July...
Just done a search for Penrith on bookings.com for next weekend 3 nights. Got a few options came up.
Richard Taylor
"William Tell could take an apple off your head. Taylor could take out a processed pea."
Sid Waddell
