Quote Originally Posted by Mike T View Post
Which - it being the main determinant, or how many cases we had?

In fact both are true - we had rising and large numbers of cases and deaths; R always comes down with meaningful lockdown - as opposed to "encouragement" - though there is a lag measured in weeks.
The reason I ask Mike, is that in the UK we only had very limited testing and so the assessments of how many had it are nothing more than estimates and the range of estimates go from hardly any, to half the population, so to work out what the situation was in reality seems like just picking a side.

and I don't think there's any better data from elsewhere in Europe.