Coronavirus

[Wetherby whaler]

Well it seems to me that with the rising rates in other countries as well as here all lockdown has done is postpone the inevitable fact that most of us are going to catch this thing at some point if some semblance of normal life and contact is resumed. This applies to NZ and Saint Jacinda as well, they may be in for a bad time just a bit later than everyone else. It might have been better to get this out of the way during the hot early months of summer rather than the colder autumn but there you go. Assuming no vaccine of course. All that can be done is to put extra measures around the vulnerable to keep it out of care homes.

[Dave_Mole]

What SAGE are in a nutshell saying is that the knock on negative consequences of the lockdown measures are forecast to be greater than the lockdown positives.

So how does this square with these two quotes, one from the ONS website and the other from the article cited in the Telegrpah itself:

"While these negative health impacts of lockdown exceed the impacts of COVID-19 directly, they are much smaller than the negative impacts estimated for a scenario in which these measures are not in place; without these mitigations, the impact of direct COVID-19 deaths alone on both mortality and morbidity would be much higher".

and

"Without mitigations, a far larger number of people would have died from COVID-19 such that
the QALY impact from COVID-19 deaths would be more than three times the total QALY impact of all
the categories (mortality and morbidity impacts) for the CSS mitigated scenario presented here."

which say precisely the opposite.

[Witton Park]

What SAGE are in a nutshell saying is that the knock on negative consequences of the lockdown measures are forecast to be greater than the lockdown positives.

They justify that by saying - ah well but without lockdown...... and many believe that without lockdown the outcome would not be as SAGE and Ferguson thought.

Didn't you read it Dave? I'm done. I'm sure you aren't.

[Dave_Mole]

and many believe that without lockdown the outcome would not be as SAGE and Ferguson thought.

many believe that the earth is flat.

The very data you are quoting explicitly states that without lockdown things would have been much worse. It's not an opinion or a belief. It's the same data the Telegraph and you are quoting. Saying you're "done" doesn't make you right.

[Mike T]

Death Certificates are completed by trained and experienced Doctors exercising judgement,discretion & etc. There can be a range of wording and I suspect from the same case notes any six doctors might not produce exactly the same words; but that is because they are humans and not a computer.

I am happy with that.

And the more complicated the case, the more different the certifications might be. And if you asked each of those 6 to produce 3 different yet honest and legal certificates, they could probably do so - so you might have 18 different certificates for the one patient - each legal and honest. There is far more subjectivity to it than most people realise.
Occasionally certificates are "bounced" by the Coroner's office - usually a "due to" has to be added or deleted, but sometimes it means a formal referral to the Coroner, and a possible inquest.

[Llani Boy]

[QUOTE=Dave_Mole;665729]many believe that the earth is flat.

And that man walked on the moon!

[Dave_Mole]

And that man walked on the moon!

and that it's OK to pin your number on your shorts

[Llani Boy]

and that it's OK to pin your number on your shorts

Should be DQ'd

[Dave_Mole]

Should be made to take numbers on a Lakeland summit on a wet and windy day.....

[Stagger]

Right.

Let's all catch it and see what happens?