Brexit

[Fellbeast]

That is to do with Northern Ireland peace agreement.

Haha, answer of the century.

The NI peace agreement was always always the massive elephant in the room that made the cake and eat it Brexit promised by Boris impossible. The peace agreement was largely achieved because NI and Eire were members of the EU. This from the Financial Times says it all:

"There is “absolutely no chance” of a US-UK trade deal passing through Congress if the Good Friday Agreement is undermined, top US Democrat Nancy Pelosi has warned.

The comments from Ms Pelosi, speaker of the House of Representatives, pile further pressure on British prime minister Boris Johnson as he battles senior figures from his own party — and officials in Brussels — over his attempt to redraw elements of a Brexit treaty with the European Union relating to Northern Ireland.

Mr Johnson has ordered the altering of the withdrawal agreement because he wants British ministers to have the right to interpret key parts of the Northern Ireland protocol, a painstakingly drafted legal text designed to avoid a hard border with Ireland.

But the move, which prompted the resignation of the British government’s top lawyer earlier this week, threatens to put London’s highly-prized trade deal with Washington in jeopardy.

“Whatever form it takes, Brexit cannot be allowed to imperil the Good Friday Agreement, including the stability brought by the invisible and frictionless border between the Irish Republic and Northern Ireland,” said Ms Pelosi, who called for the UK to “respect” the Northern Ireland Protocol as it had been agreed with EU.

“If the UK violates that international treaty and Brexit undermines the Good Friday accord, there will be absolutely no chance of a US-UK trade agreement passing the Congress,” Ms Pelosi added. “The Good Friday Agreement is treasured by the American people and will be proudly defended in the United States Congress.”

[Stagger]

No worries.

Soon we leave, under any circumstances the better.

[Fellbeast]

Brexit negotiations going from strength to strength.....

[Stagger]

And? Your point is?

[Witton Park]

Interesting times in the currency markets.

Despite concerns over the Euro, it remains strong and they are concerned for exports as they come out of the COVID induced recession.

They haven't really anywhere to go with interest rates, mind you no one has.

[Fellbeast]

Great news for UK exporters

PS Total misrepresentation of the data by missing the bottom 90 percent of the graph off

Haha, you do realise that we import more as a country than we export and that we export most to the EU, but still import even more from the EU than we export, don't you? And that, if Brexit does goes all 'no deal' the pound will continue its decline against the Euro. So if tariffs are tit for tat applied to each other, those tariffs will most hurt the party who's currency is declining and be of increasingly less pain to the party who's currency is ascending. Also, although its most marked with the EU, where our currency has fallen 25% in value over the past 5 years, the pound has also fallen against the dollar, the yang and the yen over the same 5 year period.

And a 4% fall (in a week ffs!) is a 4% fall whether or not the graph misses off the bottom 90%. Currency comparison graphs are normally written this way as typical daily fluctuations are usually smidgeons of smidgeons of a percent (and not a huge 4% in one week)

[Dave_Mole]

So, you're Oracle?

[Mike T]

If you are referring to Pelosi in the US, that's about as surprising as Grieve popping up and doing the rounds. I'm not to fussed on a trade deal with the US, but I think it hinges on the outcome of the election this Autumn.

What Boris is doing seems to be in response to the EU negotiating team suggesting that in the event of no deal, they would be able to create problems in the relationship between NI and the rest of the UK.

Here is a brief explanation. Paragraph 4 is quite heart-warming as Gina Miller seems to have clarified the legal position on this matter.
https://assets.publishing.service.go..._Statement.pdf

I don't pretend to understand this, but it has been soundly rubbished by many a legal expert, including the Secret Barrister.

[Fellbeast]

So, you're Oracle?

Darn tooting

[Muddy Retriever]

Haha, you do realise that we import more as a country than we export and that we export most to the EU, but still import even more from the EU than we export, don't you? And that, if Brexit does goes all 'no deal' the pound will continue its decline against the Euro. So if tariffs are tit for tat applied to each other, those tariffs will most hurt the party who's currency is declining and be of increasingly less pain to the party who's currency is ascending.

I would say the reverse is true. UK exporters will have to face tariffs on their goods making them more expensive but this will be offset by a declining currency making their goods cheaper. EU exporters meanwhile will face a double whammy, the appreciating value of the euro will make their goods more expensive and this will be exacerbated by tariffs on top.

A declining currency is a double edged sword. It's good for exporters but potentially inflationary for consumers. Obviously UK customers will have to pay more for imports. However the Exchequer will get the benefit of collecting all that tariff income and since as you point out, we import more from the EU than we sell to them, there will be more tariff money coming in than going the other way.

Under WTO rules, a country can reduce or eliminate tariffs as long as it does not discriminate i.e. the same tariffs apply to all countries. So it might be useful to eliminate tariffs in some areas like certain foods that the UK doesn't produce itself in order to reduce the price the consumer pays. In the past the UK has been obliged to apply hefty tariffs on food stuff from countries outside the EU, thereby making it very expensive. It could chose now to no longer do so.