Originally Posted by
Witton Park
Some say the Heneghan article is almost 2 months old. That is true, but the article was written after local lockdowns in Leicester and Blackburn with others imminent.
A local rise had been identified and it was a word of caution from the Prof. What was causing the rise and what about the knock on effect? It wasn't visible then and it hasn't materialised even now. Could it be false positives.
Roll on two months and more are taking this seriously with the BBC, Sky and other outlets starting to ask questions about the false positive rate, including an MP raising it in the Commons this week.
Professor Henegehan continues to suggest there is cause for concern.
Some may also suggest that the rate of infection has increased since. That may be true. But PHE latest surveillance report 18 September 2020 assesses the incidence per 100,000 population in Bolton, the worst area as 212.7.
So just over 0.2%
The maths are still the same.
Let's say your area is clear. There is no virus in the community. You test 1000 people randomly. No one should show positive.
You only need a false positive rate of 0.2% and it would yield 2 positive cases.
That would be enough to put you at the top of the England COVID league table alongside Bolton.
