Valance just told us at the current rate we will have around 50k cases per day and 200 deaths per day by Mid October.
Cast you mind back to say Feb 15th. Had they testing then, they would have picked up several thousand cases a day.
The R rate was 4 (Imperial - introduced to the thread quite a while ago by Mike) cases were multiplying 4-fold within a 5 day period and we had no measures in place.
They would have sat there and advised that if we proceed at this rate, by Mid March we could have around 14 million cases per day and a almost 1/3 of the UK population, perhaps 1/2 of the adult population, would have contracted COVID.
Thanks heavens we put the measures in place Feb 23rd and didn't leave it until the end of March.
In the meantime a non-Open letter that forumites won't be able to sign just gone to the Government and their advisors.
4 authors, 20 odd signatories.
Sikora, Heneghan, Gupta and 20+ colleagues across academia.
https://twitter.com/ProfKarolSikora/...72101463212032
