The other thing is that given that about half of people who get the virus have no symptoms, that means that it’s really only people with symptoms that get tested. So deaths will likely come in a c 2% of all positive tests. That sort of correlates given that there were 49 reported deaths yesterday with positive tests 4 weeks ago coming in at just over 2,000 each day.

So, somewhat pessimistically, of the 12,872 positive results yesterday it’s likely that 250 or so will die