As well as on this forum, there's a lot of hot air out in Government circles.
The Scottish Chief Medical Officer’s Covid-19 Note giving the evidence for the new restrictions makes indicates new infections in Scotland could reach over 35k per day “without further intervention”.
It is accompanied by this wonderful image.
Scots Graph.jpg
The lower rate in the band is 25,000 cases per day - in Scotland - how do these clowns get a salaried position? They should be sectioned.
Richard Taylor
"William Tell could take an apple off your head. Taylor could take out a processed pea."
Sid Waddell
That is though the magical scary power of exponential growth. The old fable of the inventor of chess being rewarded by the king of the day with anything he wanted. And all he asked for was one grain of rice on the first square of his chessboard, two on the second, four on the third until all 64 squares were filled. Which the king immediately agreed too, thinking it a cheap deal. The thing is though once you're into the second half of the chessboard things go bonkers. There are over 18 quintillion grains of rice on a chessboard, whatever the heck that number is. Thats doubling the number one 63 timesOriginally Posted by Witton Park
I think it depends on the definition of "critical stage". I don't think the meaning was "close to being overwhelmed", but perhaps "if things don't get better they will rapidly get worse". Like FB says: once you start getting into only slightly higher numbers, doubling gets more serious very quickly.
Edited to add: now saying northern England to reach it's peak in ICU cases in 22 days!
Last edited by Dave_Mole; 08-10-2020 at 04:40 PM.
Too true - and if you take the 1 case day 1, 4 case day 6, 16 cases day 11..... you end up with just over 14 million cases Day 61 (accumulative 20 million)That is though the magical scary power of exponential growth. The old fable of the inventor of chess being rewarded by the king of the day with anything he wanted. And all he asked for was one grain of rice on the first square of his chessboard, two on the second, four on the third until all 64 squares were filled. Which the king immediately agreed too, thinking it a cheap deal. The thing is though once you're into the second half of the chessboard things go bonkers. There are over 18 quintillion grains of rice on a chessboard, whatever the heck that number is. Thats doubling the number one 63 times
That sort of R=4 exponential growth without any measures would have taken us to early - mid March just before lockdown and to the point when the virus would have started running out of people to infect and start a natural decline.
Perhaps it did?
Richard Taylor
"William Tell could take an apple off your head. Taylor could take out a processed pea."
Sid Waddell
according to Whitty today:
“The really scary thing for the north-west and north-east is that the projection is for there to be more people in intensive care within three weeks – 22 days actually – than there were in the first wave,”
also
hospitality accounted for 41% of linked Covid cases among under-30s....
and
we're now up to 17,540 new cases a day with more than 500 hospital admissions/day.
anyone believe this from the ONS that Ed Conway has latched on to?
Only 394 flu deaths this year in first 8 months. 13619 Pneumonia and 48,168 Covid.
5 year average to end August for Flu and Pneumonia pre Covid would be interesting to compare. Bet it's not a long way off 60k.
Ejy11rhWAAE7Vw0.jpg
Richard Taylor
"William Tell could take an apple off your head. Taylor could take out a processed pea."
Sid Waddell
I hear they're considering replacing, or is that supplementing, the 'old' 5 stage Covid Alert Levels https://news.sky.com/story/coronavir...kdown-11985894 , with a 3 tier system for Covid restrictions, so as to make things far simpler to understand (well, that's good then). Tier 3, otherwise known as Scorched Earth Policy, I guess will be trialed in t'North of England, a kind of Harrying Of The North 2.0. Less a case of Levelling Up but more of ...erm... well just Levelling.
Am Yisrael Chai
Maybe it just means that the flu vaccination programme is doing a really good job of protecting vulnerable people?
Yes, severe travel restrictions: as you go down Teesdale, you will find roadblocks, with no-one allowed into Barnard Castle without a valid eye-test appointment.
You're not far wrong AK. We're fiercely proud of our minuscule 0-2 Positive COVID cases, https://phe.maps.arcgis.com/apps/web...2c5f6912ed7076 maintained partially by the Pick-Up Truck and trailer barricades manned at Folly-top and Cotherstone. I'm down to do my pitch fork and burning torch session every Friday 22:00 - 6:00.Yes, severe travel restrictions: as you go down Teesdale, you will find roadblocks, with no-one allowed into Barnard Castle without a valid eye-test appointment.No Pasaran!
https://i.ytimg.com/vi/FvW_2IvDtzI/hqdefault.jpg
Last edited by Mossdog; 08-10-2020 at 07:00 PM.
Am Yisrael Chai
