Quote Originally Posted by Muddy Retriever View Post
I read about that earlier too. This is the article from Carl Heneghan for those interested. The 4,000 "scenario" shows deaths on 1st November already being around 1,000. The actual seven day average yesterday was 260.

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/the-in...e-sage-models/
There are 4 different estimate curves - 2 about 200/day, 1 about 550/day, and 1 about 950/day - about as it is very unclear what the actual figures are - the numbers are for deaths per day on the 1st of November.
What is clear is that the NHS is struggling to cope both with its normal workload and with Covid, and it will get rather worse before it gets better, despite the lockdown, which for some reason, has yet to start.