Using out of date data - not a good look. It would be interesting to hear their explanation.Originally Posted by Witton Park
Using out of date data - not a good look. It would be interesting to hear their explanation.
If you read that letter, or listen to what was said, he was talking about the north of England generally, not specifically about Liverpool. The latter does not admit that cases were falling in n Liverpool, but clarifies a point.
More about this Government data shenanigans here.
https://unherd.com/2020/11/the-gover...nd=1&tl_groups[0]=18743&tl_period_type=3
extract...
"This, at heart, is the justification for the second lockdown: shut down society to save our ailing health service from being overwhelmed, as it was in winter 2017/18. Tens of thousands of people had their treatments postponed or cancelled that year, as a bad flu season pushed demand above capacity. Those pre-emptive cancellations may have been designed to prevent a crisis like the one preceding it, in winter 2016/17, when overflowing hospitals had patients dying in corridors.
What has changed since 2018? There was no question of reorganising society around the needs of the NHS, even though 55,720 people in the UK fell victim to Excess Winter Deaths in that season. There were not even calls for people to avoid social interaction with the elderly, to wash hands more often, or to stay home if they had a fever. Those at risk were exhorted to get a flu jab, and the rest of us were left to get on with it."
Am Yisrael Chai
Irish GP who simply questioned the Covid response... "a storm of retribution against me..."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_WbKl2gPo4Y
Am Yisrael Chai
This is an extract of an exchange between Chris Whitty and Greg Clark, when he and Patrick Vallance appeared before the science and technology select committee the other day.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/202...falling-older/
During the hearing, Greg Clark, the committee chairman, pointed out that positive cases in Liverpool had fallen since the imposition of Tier 3 restrictions and asked why a national lockdown was necessary if the tier system was working.
Prof Whitty told the panel that cases were continuing to rise in older people, saying: "What we are seeing is the rates, particularly in younger people, have fallen.
"But you're not seeing that reliably in the older age bands, and that's important because the rates falling in people in their 20s will actually have remarkably little effect on the NHS. The rates are still steadily tracking up in all the data that I have seen in the older age groups, who are the ones who are likely to translate into hospitalisations, ICU cases and attempts."
Mr Clark said: "So we think that the fall in positive tests in places like Liverpool over the last few weeks is not reflected in the prevalence in older groups?”
Prof Whitty replied: "Correct. This is a differential effect for different ages."
This is the relevant extract from Chris Whitty's letter.
"I did not say there was no reduction in Liverpool specifically (nor does my relistening imply that - "I said that looking at the data particularly in the north of England") but since that has been the interpretation put on my comments can I say on the record that in Liverpool specifically, rates have been dropping both in younger people and older people.
But he was specifically asked about Liverpool by Greg Clark and answered that question.
You say the letter does not admit that cases are falling in Liverpool but it clearly does.
Not all excess winter deaths are due to flu. Flu deaths in the first 9 weeks of 2018 were just over 22,000 - a big enough figure of course.
Imagine how many Covid deaths we would have had if we had not changed our behaviour.
True, but I guess you'd not had time to read the link, as the next paragraph explained
"Covid-19 is not seasonal flu. Left unchecked, it would spread faster, and kill more people. But we are not leaving it to spread unchecked. The Tier system of regional restrictions appears to be having effects already, with cases falling in the Northeast, and the R number shrinking back towards one since early October. Chief Medical Officer Chris Whitty admitted to the Commons Science and Technology Committee that he thought Tier 2 and 3 regulations were having an effect, but that those effects were not included in the models used to justify a second lockdown."
Adding, with the government's own figures now unraveling "there's a need to have a rational debate about balancing social measures to suppress Covid-19 against social harms.
The evidence presented in support of the new lockdown is weak. Evidence that the resulting damage has been researched alongside the hoped-for benefits is almost non-existent. “There Is No Alternative” is not an argument, when not only livelihoods, but the fabric of society, is being devastated in the name of controlling the virus and protecting the NHS, which should be protecting us."
Stifling debate and casting those who are calling for a thorough consideration of the data as 'covid deniers' isn't helpful, especially when it seems the Government and much of the media seem to resort to blaming people for, well, behaving like people!
Without wanting to be accused of, or derided as, some whacky conspiracy theorist, there does seem to be an overarching ploy (or a whiff of one) going on here, beyond just a response to covid, which should surely call for us to take a step back and ask a few more questions.
Am Yisrael Chai
the only place we have excess deaths at the moment are at home.
That's one of the least likely place someone will die of Covid.
Richard Taylor
"William Tell could take an apple off your head. Taylor could take out a processed pea."
Sid Waddell
I did read it all - just making the point.
As to the tiers having a significantly useful effect: average deaths in the last week 320; week before about 240, week before that 160. So doubling in 2 weeks. In my opinion even tier 3 was too lax.
Since when does "in places like Liverpool" mean "in Liverpool"?
Whitty said he assumed he was asked a general question illustrated by Liverpool, and he replied generally. And nowhere in that letter was he "forced to admit that he was wrong" as per the Tweet.
Last edited by Dave_Mole; 06-11-2020 at 07:01 PM.
