Coronavirus

[noel]

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...000/2015-11-25

Thanks. So that's 48,000 deaths in the worse flu year in recent history. During winter (I'm assuming that's three calendar months) so that's about 530 excess deaths a day. Similar to where we've been over the past few weeks. But I'm hoping that's a peak that the lock-down will bring down.

While this is helpful in terms of perspective, I still don't think that is an argument against lock-down. It's only this low because of lock-downs. If you allowed a few more doublings, we'd be at 2000 deaths a day, then 4000... At what point would you act if you were the government?

[mr brightside]

Well obviously being a gentleman of refinement and gravitas I despise Porsche drivers

The problem is that they are bought by people who either want to look like they know how to throw a car about or people who want to look good rolling up at Booths. As a rule, anyone driving a Porsche newer than a 987 Boxster falls into this category. Post Boxster sales took off quite markedly and the cars began to fall into the sort of hands that used to buy Audis and Range Rovers.

[Graham Breeze]

The problem is that they are bought by people who either want to look like they know how to throw a car about or people who want to look good rolling up at Booths. As a rule, anyone driving a Porsche newer than a 987 Boxster falls into this category. Post Boxster sales took off quite markedly and the cars began to fall into the sort of hands that used to buy Audis and Range Rovers.

There are a lot of Range Rovers in Ilkley. It's the off-road mountainous terrain and the months of deep snow we get round here.

[Witton Park]

Thanks. So that's 48,000 deaths in the worse flu year in recent history. During winter (I'm assuming that's three calendar months) so that's about 530 excess deaths a day. Similar to where we've been over the past few weeks. But I'm hoping that's a peak that the lock-down will bring down.

While this is helpful in terms of perspective, I still don't think that is an argument against lock-down. It's only this low because of lock-downs. If you allowed a few more doublings, we'd be at 2000 deaths a day, then 4000... At what point would you act if you were the government?

There's some issues still to address.

The baby boomers are getting to the mid 70s now, so we have a growing elderly population and so deaths are increasing and have been for the last decade.
So looking at excess deaths has to be done in the context of an almost annual increase in deaths for 10 years.
We would have been expecting more deaths in 2020 anyway, so comparing to a previous 5 year average is inappropriate.

It's a little longer than 3 calendar months because you can track the start of the increase in general respiratory ailments to September.
So you might see (for example) a peak close to a 1000 a day lasting for a fortnight in December, but a spread of 4-5 months.
Back to School, back from holidays, Universities head back and it kicks off.
That start in September builds to December and quickly drops away usually in January. I think only once in recent years has the peak been as late as January - but it was a few weeks ago when I was looking at the analysis.

Cases were dropping pre-lockdown, just as they were back in March.
The normal trend for a autumn/winter virus is to build gradually in the community and quickly fizzle out, as it runs out of people to infect.

There's a further issue, they don't test for flu. So it's a public health statistical calculation. Mind you with the state of the testing and assessment of particularly care home deaths, we don't know how many have died "with" or of covid.

Of course we have had measures in place throughout, even if not full lockdown, but I've looked at a lot of graphs and charts out there, and it is impossible to find a graph where the date of a lockdown correlates to the change in the direction or rate of growth of the virus.

I posted a link to a video of Tom Woods a couple of days ago.
I watched it.
If you haven't time to watch the 20 minutes, head to about 11:30 in and watch the section on masks.
https://mises.org/library/covid-cult

[MattPo]

There are a lot of Range Rovers in Ilkley. It's the off-road mountainous terrain and the months of deep snow we get round here.

Obligatory for the school run.

[Flem]

There are a lot of Range Rovers in Ilkley. It's the off-road mountainous terrain and the months of deep snow we get round here.

Talking of Ilkley, has anyone seen this?

https://www.ilkleychat.co.uk/post/fi...lkley-released

https://www.comedy.co.uk/film/say-your-prayers

I haven't seen it, but the trailer looks as though it might be quite good. I'm not going to splash out £4.49 without doing extensive research, though. Hence my question.

[Llani Boy]

The problem is that they are bought by people who either want to look like they know how to throw a car about or people who want to look good rolling up at Booths. As a rule, anyone driving a Porsche newer than a 987 Boxster falls into this category. Post Boxster sales took off quite markedly and the cars began to fall into the sort of hands that used to buy Audis and Range Rovers.

Why would anyone want to look good going to the chemist's?

[Mike T]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...id-is-in-sight

[Mike T]

From React-1:
R down to 0.88

"The results of these tests suggested a 30% fall in infections between the last study and the period of 13-24 November.
Before that, cases were accelerating - doubling every nine days when the study last reported at the end of October.
Now cases are coming down, but more slowly than they shot up - halving roughly every 37 days." - BBC News.

Every 37 days - I doubt the tiers will keep the R below 1 for long.

[Muddy Retriever]

From React-1:
R down to 0.88

"The results of these tests suggested a 30% fall in infections between the last study and the period of 13-24 November.
Before that, cases were accelerating - doubling every nine days when the study last reported at the end of October.
Now cases are coming down, but more slowly than they shot up - halving roughly every 37 days." - BBC News.

Every 37 days - I doubt the tiers will keep the R below 1 for long.

But cases clearly weren't doubling every nine days before that study. That is demonstrably incorrect. Positive cases as reported on the Government's website had slowed down markedly and new infections had started dropping per the weekly ONS pilot study and the ZOE covid symptom study. Indeed the creator of the ZOE study believe infections peaked before lockdwown.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/...efore-lockdown

If cases were doubling every nine days why isn't this now being reflected in the death figures?