I can't answer that. Epidemiologists are not a group that has one opinion on this.Originally Posted by noel
But consider the makeup of SAGE.
No Clinical Immunologists.
No Biology Degree.
There are a few medics, some sociologists, psychologists.
They do have 7 mathematicians - the discipline most represented.
People think SAGE is a co-opted group of people that are experts in virology/immunology. I thought as much. BUt they aren't and that was clear when the membership was published.
https://www.bmj.com/content/bmj/369/bmj.m1808.full.pdf
This was May.
It is highlighting the lack of the "Gold Standard" for the Covid test. At that time they are looking at it from the perspective of a False Negative because the prevalence in the particular setting is high.
More recently the concerns have moved to the False Positive, because the test has been used among the public en mass, and the prevalence there is low.
Being generous, I think the issue is one of mindset. Ferguson et al have over egged the potential of outbreaks in the past.
What are the consequences of being wrong on the side of caution?
Imagine if Ferguson had modelled 25k would have died of Covid without a lockdown? Better to be on the high side.
Being ungenerous, I sense a political motive behind it.
Academia and the Public Sector are steeped in the left.
In the UK they abhor Brexit and the Tory Government, as exemplified by the Dr Deepti Gurdasani quoted by Mike.
Across Europe they have Le Penn, AFD, Salvini....
In the USA Trump.
The western world was heading the wrong way. What better way to enact a handbrake turn?
