Well good luck if you go for the long race - sure makes a good day out for some!
Looking at previous stated distances/climb for short and medium races and then comparing to my actual routes throws up a ballpark 30% factor for estimating actual distance and climb. So I'd guess that this year's short 15km/1100m and medium 21km/1500m are more likely to yield 19.5km/1450m and 27km/1950m respectively.