Quote Originally Posted by Witton Park View Post
Incredible and not very scientific of course, but I'd say in a period where we have had almost daily poll updates, the polls seem to have dried up in the last week or so.
I wonder why?

My own assessment a few months back was that if we ended up in the EU elections, around 70% of Tory voters would jump ship and around 30% of Labour voters to a Brexit Party, which seems most likely The Brexit Party now.

There will also be Remainers deserting the two because of their lack of clarity, the middle ground approach doesn't work on an issue that is polarised.

Turnout will be a key factor. Pro EU might be seen as more likely to vote than Leavers.

But I can easily see a 30% + vote for the Brexit Party, Labour dropping to mid 20s and Tories maybe even under 20%

The UK contingent in the EU Parliament is already pretty anti EU as UKIP won the 2014 EU election, so the balance won't change a great deal from our perspective.

But the balance may change elsewhere, with many of the 27 becoming more Eurosceptic, not in the majority perhaps, but there is a shift.

France will be interesting. Macron wants more EU, but not sure the French public do.
Looking back that wasn't a bad forecast.

Farage as PM is perhaps closer now than ever.

After today's waste of an Autumn Statement I have a number of Labour friends who say they can't vote for them and same for the Tories.

Reform now hitting double figures in the polls.
Farage in the jungle - maybe lining up a political comeback which could see Reform closing on the Tories at around 20% and I can see a few Tory MP wobbling and jumping ship.

Now I can't see a Reform Party gaining power, but possibly a few seats and the Tories dropping below 100 - they could be wiped out.

But in 2025 I can see a reverse takeover of the Tory Party by Reform, opening the way to a 2029 GE with a Farage led Tories.