We'll get immigration to the tens of thousands...Quote:
Originally Posted by Derby Tup
65 tens of thousands. :)
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We'll get immigration to the tens of thousands...Quote:
Originally Posted by Derby Tup
65 tens of thousands. :)
They might be incompetent cockwombles, but they're our incompetent cockwombles.Quote:
Originally Posted by Witton Park
#takebackcontrol
#makeblightygreatagain
#etcetcetc
Bit of guff from Boris about how large the Single Market access payments "should be"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016...yments-access/
And a piece by Jon Snow
https://www.channel4.com/news/by/jon...k-and-mix-deal
In particular
Quote:
When it comes to trade, ministers talk of negotiating trade deals through the World Trade Organisation (WTO), save that the WTO is run by the Quad, which consist of the USA, Canada, the EU, and Japan. So in leaving the EU, we might be automatically leaving the Quad. A source in the WTO tells me there is no prospect of the UK joining the Quad. India, China, and Brazil are in the queue ahead of us and the organisation is seemingly as resistant to change as is the UN Security Council structure.
See post 418 and related posts.
At the Exiting the EU Select Committee Mr Shankar Singham set out pretty well how we stand. His credentials are first class as his background is in international trade law, working with the WTO and involved in the accession of a variety of countries including China and India.
The UK is a WTO member.
The UK has effectively sub-contracted out it's negotiating position for the EU.
When we leave the EU we will be able to adopt the current tariff schedules as arranged for us by the EU and use them as a starting point.
The only real complication would be agriculture.
It's akin to us taking all the EU Law and putting it in to UK law for the purposes of leaving.
When asked by the committee about process, time-frame, objections from other WTO members Mr Singham was quite confident that it would not be a problem for the following reasons.
The UK, if it just transfers across the existing agreements, will not be seeking to or achieving any advantage from it's current position.
The UK is actually most likely going to offer more open trade, particularly with agriculture and this fits with the mantra of WTO.
Linked to this, the EU is most likely to have difficulties because some of it's deals such as CAP, depend on the size of the EU market and it will be shrinking by 20%.
You only need to see the statement from the Italian Ambassador ref Boris and his speech to the ambassadors. There's a lot of "mischief" going on. So many vested interests plotting (on both sides I hasten to add). It seems clear he didn't say what has been attributed to him.
I also watched what David Davis said last week live and he didn't say what was attributed to him.
Wayne David (Caerphilly) (Lab)
This is a general question, so it provides the Minister with plenty of scope to give some sort of response. Will the Government consider making any contribution in any shape or form for access to the single market?
Mr Davis
I note that the first half of the hon. Gentleman’s question was probably aimed more at you, Mr Speaker, than at me. The simple answer we have given previously—it is very important, because there is a distinction between picking off an individual policy and setting out a major criterion—is that the major criterion here—[Interruption.] I will answer him if he lets me do so. The major criterion is that we get the best possible access for goods and services to the European market. If that is included in what he is talking about, then of course we would consider it.
Whether we will or won't, it is another stock, non-answer. Davis can't say we will, he can't say we won't, he can only say it will be considered along with a range of options.
But it gets jumped on as if paying as Norway do is the plan.
Norway pays, but Norway has a huge trade surplus with the EU. Also 75% of Norway's trade is with the EU. If the balance of trade was the other way, I doubt they would consider paying.
TL DR :p
Bullet points WP. Like shaunetto your answers are so long that they put me off being arsed to read them
Perhaps a Podcast version, to accompany your 60 in 60...?!! ;)Quote:
Originally Posted by Stolly
Actually no, I like it to be explained. If I wanted bullet points I would watch the BBC or read the newspapers. One line answers and "quotes" only give you what the person projecting it want's you to hear. It's like a debate where only one side turns up. I actually find this thread pretty useful as I get to hear the debate from both sides as WP usually portrays it. Bullet points are pointless points and really don't move the debate forward it just stagnates it.Quote:
Originally Posted by Stolly
- It will all be OK Stolly :D
This is the case with most posts, long or short. There's a person typing and every single one of them will have their own view point.Quote:
One line answers and "quotes" only give you what the person projecting it want's you to hear.
On a different topic I was watching Countryfile whilst relaxing with a nice Sherry yesterday. The evening edition you understand, never drink Sherry before 9am.
Anyway, it did get me thinking about the impact of Brexit on automation as they had a wee section on agricultural automation. A sector that's already seen large scale reductions in total numbers of employees over the last couple of hundred years.
The change is coming, barring economic apocalypse. But it might be coming quicker than before.
Driverless tractors, harvesters, seeders, weeders, all on the cards for the coming years. Interesting times with some big implications across society as a whole.
I know we've seen waves of automation before, but the capabilities of incoming technologies is leading us down a road where it'll be cheaper to use a robot than a low skilled worker.
Edit, probably should mention that it might only need the perceived threat of losing cheap labour to accelerate the change.
Ahh, as an non agricultural example. And pertinent to someone with relatives that used to work in shoe factories.
https://www.ft.com/content/7eaffc5a-...8-91555f2f4fde
Article is about Adidas setting up highly automated factories in Germany for the first time in 3 decades.
While I don't want to switch sides in the argument, it's areas like automation where the UK has the potential to take a big lead on Europe post Brexit. With our weak unions and right-wing government, the UK could embrace automation in a way that countries like France would never let the EU get away with. That would reverse immigration - if there were no jobs to come here for because machines can do them faster and better.
An interesting example from your part of the country, Shaun. We (my wife and I) were on holiday, staying in a cottage near Alyth in the raspberry-growing area of Tayside, in early August a few years ago. We noticed harvesting machines going through the raspberry fields; but they had several workers on board. We got to speak to a raspberry farmer later: he told of the clever computerised machines with "hands" to pick the berries, but that workers are still needed to remove bits of unwanted vegetation that get picked off with the berries. He also said that the machines were fine for berries that were going into jam production, but hand-picking was still required to ensure pristine berries for sale as fresh fruit. So technology hasn't replaced the labourers yet.Quote:
Originally Posted by shaunaneto
Oh, and where did the seasonal workers come from? On two occasions we picked up workers who were hitch-hiking, and they were both Czech.
No technology hasn't replaced them yet, but it's getting there. Your example is a good one, as the labour is now only required to do what the technology can't. Instead of the whole thing!
Have a look at the 'Hands free hectare" and in Japan I think the first fully (or nearly fully) automated farm is about to start.
There'll obviously be some things that come in sooner, soft fruit being on of the last. But harvesting corn and the like, that won't be (relatively) long. Ploughing being another obvious choice.
Recruitment for 'some' of these farms is a little bit iffy. It seems that unless you want to live on the farm and pay rent for your accommodation and live in eastern Europe it's very difficult to even find a job advertised. There's a couple of farms where I've tried for some time to find the job adverts, and only succeeded when looking at a notice board on the farm itself. Never seen an advert elsewhere. Plenty of recruitment agencies in Poland seem to have adverts.
I can't access it Shaun. Strange as normally with the FT it's just a couple of survey questions to access an article. They must be tightening up.Quote:
Originally Posted by shaunaneto
Shame as I'd be interested to read it.
I have often said that if I could set up my factory again now, that I ran through the 90s, I could make more money than I did then.
I used to make leather comfort shoes for the older man and woman. I also made vulcanised slippers.
I sold a traditional mens Herringbone Twin Gusset slipper with rubber sole for around £2.75 but you could get inferior quality from Spain for less than £2 and equivalent quality from China for around the same $ price ex factpry as £ price in UK.
That meant the Chinese saved a little as $2.75 + duty + shipping on circa $1.60=£1 as it was then would save around 15%.
There were a few technical cheats such as the application of a textile scrim on the sole which brought the duty rate down from 17% to 4% so that saving became much more significant then.
Ultimately, it shrank the trade until there was no supply base left, and that lack of supply chain would now be the biggest barrier to a new start up.
Those $2.75 items are now around $6.
In terms of technology, British United Shoe Machinery were pushing this back in the 80s. The old lasting track (where they put the soles on) traditionally had around 25 staff doing the lasting, roughing, glueing, sole and heel attaching, cleaning, inspection and packing.
That was reduced by mechanisation to almost half, as manual jobs such as roughing and gluing were automated.
More recent technology could be seen in the ITV programme about New Balance in Maryport shown a couple of months ago.
If you cut out the unskilled labour, there is scope to produce back in the West. The cost of technology is one thing, but the cost of shipping has increased.
Cutting out the shipping cost and duty could be more than offset by the costs of manufacturing here in Europe. Along with improved lead time this is a real incentive to move production back.
On the back of the big buys such as Adidas, perhaps we will see a supply chain develop allowing smaller businesses to start on the back of it.
E.M Forster may have been a crusty Edwardian but the more I hear about all this, the more I realise that 'The Machine Stops' was amazingly prescient.
On a related matter, I have spent some time with Salmon Farmers in recent years.
They used to manually "harvest" the fish. Netting and gutting the fish, in their 1000s actually out at sea on the farm site.
I think this is exceptionally rare now.
A huge well boat comes long, hoovers up the fish, grades them so that smaller ones go straight back in to their farm and retains the correct sized fish in the boat.
They are then shipped to a dock, transferred direct to the processing plant where they are shocked and gutted before a quick manual clean and inspection.
It's incredible to see the process.
Other fish are now being farmed. It has taken time as the Salmon seem the best to do this with. But particularly Turbot, Bass and Halibut are now being farmed in the UK successfully.
Around Brexit there is much talk of the Fisheries coming back to us. But I wonder how significant fisheries will be in 20 years, especially when you consider that working a trawler is the most dangerous peace-time job and relies heavily on migrant labour.
There's clearly a market for "Wild" salmon, so I'm sure there will always be a UK fishing industry for the wild fish and shellfish, but it will change.
WP, there's a few articles about from the same date. Unfortunately none as good as the FT. I actually went through the questionnaire to read it first time round but can't now.
There is scope for sure, I'm not familiar with the shipping costs but I'd guess at raw materials being cheaper than finished products in general?Quote:
If you cut out the unskilled labour, there is scope to produce back in the West. The cost of technology is one thing, but the cost of shipping has increased.
Sophisticated automated production brings up all sorts of possibilities, e.g. You could go into you local running shop and have a 3D scan of your foot made, which then gets sent to the production unit for a fully customised shoe at a cost and speed not possible with a skilled craftsman in the equation. At the extreme end of this you could have a 3D scanner in you phone and a local production unit that delivers within 24hrs to you door.
This does of course lead to asking what everyone is going to do for a living? And how are they going to pay for shoes.
It's hard to see demand being met by supply if wild fish is cheap. So well either strip the oceans bare or massively scale up farming with wild fish a luxury product.Quote:
There's clearly a market for "Wild" salmon, so I'm sure there will always be a UK fishing industry for the wild fish and shellfish, but it will change.
There is scope for sure, I'm not familiar with the shipping costs but I'd guess at raw materials being cheaper than finished products in general?
It breaks down differently for different products and volumes.
Shipping full containers is the cheapest way. So importers supplying the retailers tend to bring in this way. A shoe box can cost around 50p from China to UK warehouse if you add in shipping, insurance and clearance costs.
That is clearly going to be more significant with a $4 slipper, than a $40 technical show.
The other factor of course is tariff. WTO tariffs are 17% for textile/synthetic upper and 10% for leather with a few exceptions, but then the EU has added an anti-dumping duty and as it's been in place almost 18 years now in some way, then perhaps Adidas feel that it warrants a move back to domestic production.
Some components are internationally priced, such as rubber, so the real advantage that China and the Far East had in terms of Labour cost in Labour intensive industries is shrinking as their Labour costs have experienced double digit growth year on year for almost 2 decades.
It's hard to see demand being met by supply if wild fish is cheap. So well either strip the oceans bare or massively scale up farming with wild fish a luxury product.[/QUOTE]
Yes and that has been the problem for some fish. Salmon can be farmed cheaper than wild. But experiments with cod farming have run in to trouble because cod is now plentiful again, hence the price has dropped and the farmed price became more than the fish market price.
Hence the farming is currently working with more premium priced fish like Turbot, Bass and Halibut.
One of the big issues Salmon farmers have faced is that the way they farm, with smolts in fine mesh nets in the fresh water lochs such as Loch Awe, Shin, Garry... then being moved to Sea Water and the possibility of cross contamination and infection.
The Bass, Turbot and Halibut are all (I think) farmed in huge land based tanks, close to shore, where they pump in Sea Water but keep the farmed fish away from the wild and there is no chance of an escape.
I'm sure shore based farming will be the future and then it may open up to a greater variety of fish.
Any news on haddock Witton please?
Captain Haddock? Still knocking around with Tintin last i heard.Quote:
Originally Posted by Derby Tup
http://vignette1.wikia.nocookie.net/...20121217042034
Viva la revolution! Been saying this for years - the top 1 percent's day is coming. Wealth needs to be distributed equally for this to work.Quote:
Originally Posted by shaunaneto
https://www.theguardian.com/politics...ip-verhofstadt
If this did materialise it would be interesting to see how many applied for it.
I would pay good money too :)Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike T
Does anyone else find it flipping ridiculous that the EU Leaders are having informal Brexit discussions tonight and our Prime minister is excluded. However, when we have any discussions apparently the World and his dog are invited! How does that work then?
Not really. I think as we are leaving you would expect that they would want some private discussions.Quote:
Originally Posted by RaceTheSweeper
I agree, so why are our Government discussions going to be public?Quote:
Originally Posted by Witton Park
I think you just have to wait and see.Quote:
Originally Posted by RaceTheSweeper
I think you will have a form of parallel discussion and disclosure.
The first round of discussions after Article 50 will lead to briefings and debate in the Commons and also briefings and debate in the EU Parliament.
Surely, when it comes down to it, we - us and them - will be signing a contract - each side will have to be open about what they expect and what they are agreeing to - there will be no secrets. May may as well be open from the start. The idea that we can "fool" them with secrecy seems pretty insulting to their intelligence.Quote:
Originally Posted by Witton Park
I understand your point Mike. But the EU rules actually stop them disclosing their position.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike T
From our perspective, the current UK Govt have been stitched up a little by Cameron not having done any preparation for a Leave vote. So they are consulting and not in a position to present a plan.
The pressure for a plan is premature as that will come on or after article 50 is triggered.
I expect it to be fairly basic along the lines of:
We will leave the EU.
We will leave the EEA and Customs Union.
We will seek to maintain free trade with the EU/EEA during the process and if time is against us we will seek an extension through the WTO to the current trading arrangement (of say 2 years) in order to finalise such as deal if the EU/EEA are happy to pursue that.
We will seek to engage with some of the pan European organisations as we do as members of the EU, but from outside of the EU, where feasible and in the best interests of all parties.
We will seek to maintain the best of relations with all members of the EU and play a continued major roll in the security of the region.
I can't imagine it will be a million miles away from that.
I then expect the EU top work with us towards that. The sticking point may be the free trade, but it would be shooting themselves in the foot and if they really want to do that, it would be a shame, but we'd be fine.
Christmas is going to be different post be exit
No Brussels for example
Triggering article 50, as far as I can tell, requires no prior agreements - it is just starting the divorce process. We then have 2 years - or less - to disentangle, and as long as it takes to sort out the equivalent of who gets the house, the pension, the kids, and the CDs. This could take a decade or more, so there will need to be transitional arrangements.Quote:
Originally Posted by Witton Park
"They need us more than we need them" is a common argument. There are lots of different figures about - I found this interesting:
The £220 billion exports of goods and services to other EU countries were worth about 12% of the value of the British economy in 2015, and £230 billion or 13% in 2014. It’s stayed at around 13-15% over the past decade.
Exports from the rest of the EU to the UK were worth about 3-4% of the size of the remaining EU’s economy in 2014. The exact number depends on whether you use the £290 billion figure from UK data, or £360 billion from EU data. There aren’t complete figures available in the EU data for 2015.
I agree with you on article 50, but it doesn't stop the demand for the plan from opposition politicians.
It shouldn't take that long.
The figures are interesting and of course you can make the point that the EU need us less because as a % they rely on trade with us less.
I can tell you that GM have already laid off staff in Germany as a result of Brexit - I know someone in the supply chain.
Maybe that is as a result of exchange rate rather than Brexit?
Maybe it's because they are planning for Tariffs?
But what I do believe is that if WTO terms have to be put in place as free trade cannot be agreed, it won't affect us much and let me just give you a few bullet points as I know Stolly likes them :)
- International trade is around 25% of total UK GDP.
- EU trade is around 45% of UKs International Trade.
- Around 10% of EU trade is estimated to be from a Country of Origin outside of the EU.
- Average WTO tariff rate in EU is around 4%.
Do the maths and you'll find that WTO tariffs would affect maximum 10% of GDP at an average rate of 4%
Much of that can be clawed back quickly by the removal of existing EU anti-dumping duties, the benefits of leaving CAP and CFP and that's before we even consider any boost from any new agreements we can sign.
But there is the "why should we be bothered" problem - why go to all the trouble of importing say cheese from the UK, with all the hassle of transport as well, when you can get a similar product from an adjacent country without the problem of paperwork, currency exchange and so on. I don't think people have allowed for this, because of course it cannot be measured - that does mean it is not real. I think this effect will be far greater than what can be "quickly clawed back".Quote:
Originally Posted by Witton Park
As to non UK companies continuing to build cars here - why?
And the products of our higher farming standards will soon be regarded in a similar way that organic produce is - too expensive and not worth the trouble of importing.
What is really grim is that soon, with natural wastage, those who voted to stay will be in the majority, and had 16 year old been allowed to vote, as they should have been, we would not be in this position in the first place.
What you are saying on cheese and cars may have some substance to it but it also cuts both ways.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike T
Take Cars.
I can give you the stats, but I'll just make them up to keep it simple.
Pre Brexit
EU sells £1M worth of cars to UK.
UK sells £0.5M worth of cars to EU.
After Brexit
Tariffs are put in place at 10% and hence prices have to go up.
EU sales to UK drop 20%
UK Sales drop to EU 20%.
EU Sales drop £200K, Uk Sales drop £100K.
There's no reason to suggest that the effect of equal tariffs will be different
UK car buyers will still want cars, so they will switch in to either UK made or WTO made so UK manufacturers will make up some of their drop in the UK.
There will be 200K up for grabs and they have only lost 100K, so options to sell more.
In the EU it will be similar, they will be able to compete for that 100K of sales with RoW manufacturers, so they may claw back 50K of their "loss" but of course they have lost 200K.
So this is how the EU in £/Euro/$ ie hard cash, will be better off with free trade. If the opt to goo down the WTO route, it won't be a problem.
Brexit day was a day to remember. The CL celebrations could be heard around the borough. So to mark the occasion I called in the local bakers and asked if they could bake me a cake with the slogan 'Stagger, CL, Brexiteers, Brothers in arms!' The baker informed me he couldn't comply because he really wanted to stay in the EU and in all conscience couldn't bake me a cake against his own beliefs.
So I left and decided instead to enter the printers where they print slogans on to T-Shirts. Stuff like 'Kiss me quick, squeeze me slow.' Again I asked if they'd print my slogan on a T-Shirt and like the baker declined for the same reason. Now I'm all for freedom of choice and all but I just feel hard done by. These Remainers messed up my celebrations and under EU law they were depriving me of their services. So I was wondering should I sue them for discrimination?
Britain ain't going to become Great again with American attitudes like that!Quote:
Originally Posted by CL
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=jhdFe3evXpk
Longdogs and Emmylou both said what a decent chap you are.
Thankyou my new friend ��