Quote Originally Posted by Witton Park View Post
I agree with you on article 50, but it doesn't stop the demand for the plan from opposition politicians.

It shouldn't take that long.

The figures are interesting and of course you can make the point that the EU need us less because as a % they rely on trade with us less.
I can tell you that GM have already laid off staff in Germany as a result of Brexit - I know someone in the supply chain.
Maybe that is as a result of exchange rate rather than Brexit?
Maybe it's because they are planning for Tariffs?

But what I do believe is that if WTO terms have to be put in place as free trade cannot be agreed, it won't affect us much and let me just give you a few bullet points as I know Stolly likes them

  • International trade is around 25% of total UK GDP.
  • EU trade is around 45% of UKs International Trade.
  • Around 10% of EU trade is estimated to be from a Country of Origin outside of the EU.
  • Average WTO tariff rate in EU is around 4%.



Do the maths and you'll find that WTO tariffs would affect maximum 10% of GDP at an average rate of 4%

Much of that can be clawed back quickly by the removal of existing EU anti-dumping duties, the benefits of leaving CAP and CFP and that's before we even consider any boost from any new agreements we can sign.
But there is the "why should we be bothered" problem - why go to all the trouble of importing say cheese from the UK, with all the hassle of transport as well, when you can get a similar product from an adjacent country without the problem of paperwork, currency exchange and so on. I don't think people have allowed for this, because of course it cannot be measured - that does mean it is not real. I think this effect will be far greater than what can be "quickly clawed back".

As to non UK companies continuing to build cars here - why?

And the products of our higher farming standards will soon be regarded in a similar way that organic produce is - too expensive and not worth the trouble of importing.

What is really grim is that soon, with natural wastage, those who voted to stay will be in the majority, and had 16 year old been allowed to vote, as they should have been, we would not be in this position in the first place.