post brexit

[Mike T]

I think you just have to wait and see.

I think you will have a form of parallel discussion and disclosure.

The first round of discussions after Article 50 will lead to briefings and debate in the Commons and also briefings and debate in the EU Parliament.

Surely, when it comes down to it, we - us and them - will be signing a contract - each side will have to be open about what they expect and what they are agreeing to - there will be no secrets. May may as well be open from the start. The idea that we can "fool" them with secrecy seems pretty insulting to their intelligence.

[Witton Park]

Surely, when it comes down to it, we - us and them - will be signing a contract - each side will have to be open about what they expect and what they are agreeing to - there will be no secrets. May may as well be open from the start. The idea that we can "fool" them with secrecy seems pretty insulting to their intelligence.

I understand your point Mike. But the EU rules actually stop them disclosing their position.

From our perspective, the current UK Govt have been stitched up a little by Cameron not having done any preparation for a Leave vote. So they are consulting and not in a position to present a plan.

The pressure for a plan is premature as that will come on or after article 50 is triggered.

I expect it to be fairly basic along the lines of:

We will leave the EU.
We will leave the EEA and Customs Union.
We will seek to maintain free trade with the EU/EEA during the process and if time is against us we will seek an extension through the WTO to the current trading arrangement (of say 2 years) in order to finalise such as deal if the EU/EEA are happy to pursue that.
We will seek to engage with some of the pan European organisations as we do as members of the EU, but from outside of the EU, where feasible and in the best interests of all parties.
We will seek to maintain the best of relations with all members of the EU and play a continued major roll in the security of the region.

I can't imagine it will be a million miles away from that.

I then expect the EU top work with us towards that. The sticking point may be the free trade, but it would be shooting themselves in the foot and if they really want to do that, it would be a shame, but we'd be fine.

[Jennings]

Christmas is going to be different post be exit

No Brussels for example

[Mike T]

I understand your point Mike. But the EU rules actually stop them disclosing their position.

From our perspective, the current UK Govt have been stitched up a little by Cameron not having done any preparation for a Leave vote. So they are consulting and not in a position to present a plan.

The pressure for a plan is premature as that will come on or after article 50 is triggered.

I expect it to be fairly basic along the lines of:

We will leave the EU.
We will leave the EEA and Customs Union.
We will seek to maintain free trade with the EU/EEA during the process and if time is against us we will seek an extension through the WTO to the current trading arrangement (of say 2 years) in order to finalise such as deal if the EU/EEA are happy to pursue that.
We will seek to engage with some of the pan European organisations as we do as members of the EU, but from outside of the EU, where feasible and in the best interests of all parties.
We will seek to maintain the best of relations with all members of the EU and play a continued major roll in the security of the region.

I can't imagine it will be a million miles away from that.

I then expect the EU top work with us towards that. The sticking point may be the free trade, but it would be shooting themselves in the foot and if they really want to do that, it would be a shame, but we'd be fine.

Triggering article 50, as far as I can tell, requires no prior agreements - it is just starting the divorce process. We then have 2 years - or less - to disentangle, and as long as it takes to sort out the equivalent of who gets the house, the pension, the kids, and the CDs. This could take a decade or more, so there will need to be transitional arrangements.

"They need us more than we need them" is a common argument. There are lots of different figures about - I found this interesting:





The £220 billion exports of goods and services to other EU countries were worth about 12% of the value of the British economy in 2015, and £230 billion or 13% in 2014. It’s stayed at around 13-15% over the past decade.

Exports from the rest of the EU to the UK were worth about 3-4% of the size of the remaining EU’s economy in 2014. The exact number depends on whether you use the £290 billion figure from UK data, or £360 billion from EU data. There aren’t complete figures available in the EU data for 2015.

[Witton Park]

I agree with you on article 50, but it doesn't stop the demand for the plan from opposition politicians.

It shouldn't take that long.

The figures are interesting and of course you can make the point that the EU need us less because as a % they rely on trade with us less.
I can tell you that GM have already laid off staff in Germany as a result of Brexit - I know someone in the supply chain.
Maybe that is as a result of exchange rate rather than Brexit?
Maybe it's because they are planning for Tariffs?

But what I do believe is that if WTO terms have to be put in place as free trade cannot be agreed, it won't affect us much and let me just give you a few bullet points as I know Stolly likes them

• International trade is around 25% of total UK GDP.
• EU trade is around 45% of UKs International Trade.
• Around 10% of EU trade is estimated to be from a Country of Origin outside of the EU.
• Average WTO tariff rate in EU is around 4%.

Do the maths and you'll find that WTO tariffs would affect maximum 10% of GDP at an average rate of 4%

Much of that can be clawed back quickly by the removal of existing EU anti-dumping duties, the benefits of leaving CAP and CFP and that's before we even consider any boost from any new agreements we can sign.

[Mike T]

I agree with you on article 50, but it doesn't stop the demand for the plan from opposition politicians.

It shouldn't take that long.

The figures are interesting and of course you can make the point that the EU need us less because as a % they rely on trade with us less.
I can tell you that GM have already laid off staff in Germany as a result of Brexit - I know someone in the supply chain.
Maybe that is as a result of exchange rate rather than Brexit?
Maybe it's because they are planning for Tariffs?

But what I do believe is that if WTO terms have to be put in place as free trade cannot be agreed, it won't affect us much and let me just give you a few bullet points as I know Stolly likes them

• International trade is around 25% of total UK GDP.
• EU trade is around 45% of UKs International Trade.
• Around 10% of EU trade is estimated to be from a Country of Origin outside of the EU.
• Average WTO tariff rate in EU is around 4%.

Do the maths and you'll find that WTO tariffs would affect maximum 10% of GDP at an average rate of 4%

Much of that can be clawed back quickly by the removal of existing EU anti-dumping duties, the benefits of leaving CAP and CFP and that's before we even consider any boost from any new agreements we can sign.

But there is the "why should we be bothered" problem - why go to all the trouble of importing say cheese from the UK, with all the hassle of transport as well, when you can get a similar product from an adjacent country without the problem of paperwork, currency exchange and so on. I don't think people have allowed for this, because of course it cannot be measured - that does mean it is not real. I think this effect will be far greater than what can be "quickly clawed back".

As to non UK companies continuing to build cars here - why?

And the products of our higher farming standards will soon be regarded in a similar way that organic produce is - too expensive and not worth the trouble of importing.

What is really grim is that soon, with natural wastage, those who voted to stay will be in the majority, and had 16 year old been allowed to vote, as they should have been, we would not be in this position in the first place.

[Witton Park]

But there is the "why should we be bothered" problem - why go to all the trouble of importing say cheese from the UK, with all the hassle of transport as well, when you can get a similar product from an adjacent country without the problem of paperwork, currency exchange and so on. I don't think people have allowed for this, because of course it cannot be measured - that does mean it is not real. I think this effect will be far greater than what can be "quickly clawed back".

As to non UK companies continuing to build cars here - why?

And the products of our higher farming standards will soon be regarded in a similar way that organic produce is - too expensive and not worth the trouble of importing.

What is really grim is that soon, with natural wastage, those who voted to stay will be in the majority, and had 16 year old been allowed to vote, as they should have been, we would not be in this position in the first place.

What you are saying on cheese and cars may have some substance to it but it also cuts both ways.

Take Cars.
I can give you the stats, but I'll just make them up to keep it simple.

Pre Brexit
EU sells £1M worth of cars to UK.
UK sells £0.5M worth of cars to EU.

After Brexit
Tariffs are put in place at 10% and hence prices have to go up.
EU sales to UK drop 20%
UK Sales drop to EU 20%.
EU Sales drop £200K, Uk Sales drop £100K.

There's no reason to suggest that the effect of equal tariffs will be different

UK car buyers will still want cars, so they will switch in to either UK made or WTO made so UK manufacturers will make up some of their drop in the UK.
There will be 200K up for grabs and they have only lost 100K, so options to sell more.

In the EU it will be similar, they will be able to compete for that 100K of sales with RoW manufacturers, so they may claw back 50K of their "loss" but of course they have lost 200K.

So this is how the EU in £/Euro/$ ie hard cash, will be better off with free trade. If the opt to goo down the WTO route, it won't be a problem.

[CL]

Brexit day was a day to remember. The CL celebrations could be heard around the borough. So to mark the occasion I called in the local bakers and asked if they could bake me a cake with the slogan 'Stagger, CL, Brexiteers, Brothers in arms!' The baker informed me he couldn't comply because he really wanted to stay in the EU and in all conscience couldn't bake me a cake against his own beliefs.

So I left and decided instead to enter the printers where they print slogans on to T-Shirts. Stuff like 'Kiss me quick, squeeze me slow.' Again I asked if they'd print my slogan on a T-Shirt and like the baker declined for the same reason. Now I'm all for freedom of choice and all but I just feel hard done by. These Remainers messed up my celebrations and under EU law they were depriving me of their services. So I was wondering should I sue them for discrimination?

[wharfeego]

...So I was wondering should I sue them for discrimination?

Britain ain't going to become Great again with American attitudes like that!

[Stagger]

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=jhdFe3evXpk

Longdogs and Emmylou both said what a decent chap you are.

Thankyou my new friend ��