Unfortunately this Wednesday will change that.
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I can't let that bit of teacher / public sector bashing go without comment. As a teacher, about to log on to my schools home learning platform to mark work, set more work and deal with pupils queries, I find your post quite offensive and a little disappointing.
We are not on strike, the unions are not 'whinging about anything and everything'. We are working within the limitations placed upon us by the government. Speaking for myself (and all the teachers I am in contact with have said the same) we would much rather be back at work and getting on as normal. The union are simply doing their job of checking that it will be safe to do so when we do return. Not just for teachers sake, but also the kids, parents, grandparents and the wider community who have regular contact with school kids and staff.
If the government didn't have the advice that shutting schools was as necessary as the other measures, they would not have closed. The unions didn't shut the schools the Government did.
Can we give the 'public v private' sector argument a rest? In a modern diverse economy, we all know one could not function without the other. The entrepreneur needs a literate and numerate worker, who is healthy and can get to and from work using the infrastructure provided. Don't forget, all the public sector pay their taxes (I don't know many teachers taking advantage of 'tax efficient' investment opportunities registered in the Cayman Islands) and contribute to the economy.
If we went all the way down the free market liberal capitalism road, how do you think we would be faring now with the current crisis? It's the government propping up the economy at the moment, not business 'paying 100% for corona virus'. And as for 'not a penny from the public sector', lets wait and see the more familiar side of this government when it comes to who actually pays for the amount of government borrowing going on. Remember austerity? Remember the cuts? And where did all that QE money go? A lot of already rich people got quite a bit richer after the last round of disaster capitalism. I doubt anything has really changed.
Got to go to work, from home for the time being.
You're referring to when she stumbled over reading the number of people tested at the daily briefing I presume. Embarrassing certainly, but not exactly in the same league as this.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rneBbKrVE7A
On what are you basing your 250,000 forecast? Even Neil Ferguson, who has a track record of inflated estimates only said it would be 250,000 without a lockdown. We have had a lockdown and are still largely in it. If we're still going to have that number of deaths anyway what's the point of continuing with the lockdown at all?
50,000 deaths per 3.5 million cases = how many deaths per 35 million cases? We need around 35 million cases to stop the pandemic as a result of herd immunity. It could be said that the deaths up until now have included a lot of the really frail, and that they cannot die twice. But most of the really frail - like most other people, have yet to come into contact with it. I hope I am wrong.
She’s in good company then. Your remark fits all the doctors commenting on corona epidemiology just as well. Random number generators would have done better. The only thing they are consistent on , is incessant criticism.
Take professor “ the swedes will have 50000 deaths if they pursue this lunatic policy” fergusson. Perhaps he broke lockdown to engineer himself the sack!
Patel deals with 1000 different minutiae on a daily basis across a myriad of departments. Home sec is acknowledged the hardest job of all. Although events have made boris’s job harder. The last thing she needs is a microphone shoved up her nose with gotcha questions. Nobody could answer most of them without prior briefing.
It’s probably why May coped with it. She was a gifted administrator not a leader.
To do home sec you need to be a details geek, a completer finisher, and none of them come over well.
It is easy to criticise for those who don’t have to do it.
Mike, however it comes across, I’m not critical of the medical profession per se. I just hate All the endless criticism of those with near impossible jobs. And you must admit: medics as a bunch are long on criticism.
Diane Abbott thought policemen earned £200 a year, and wears two left shoes.
It could have been worse,
On a positive note of what can be done with a go ahead attitude and probably good management driving a factory, I give you this short report from the Control Techniques factory in Newtown, Powys. Llaniboy will know of it.
Back in full production with 350 staff in full time work. I like to think it shows that the human brain and a little innovation can overcome problems, but many chose to sit around moaning about the irrelevant rather than getting on with it.
BBC News - Coronavirus: How to run a factory during a pandemic
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52624288
Apart from the absolute bollocks spouted by Abbot, the look on Nick Ferrari's face made me smile. He could not believe what he was hearing.
And fair play to him, he wasn't even asking awkward questions or trying to get stuck into her like he sometimes does.
Did you not see Priti unable to read out a number? And either pretending she had got it right, or not realising she had it totally wrong. I am not saying Abbott is any better, though she may have had a low blood glucose at the time, we cannot be sure.
Totally different from getting estimates wrong.
I think there will be lots of day trippers - a big change in terms of numbers in the towns and villages. The infection rate will be pushed up, especially in areas that have done well so far. And in areas that have a current high infection rate, like South Cumbria, they will take it home with them.
In my village, a population of 220, I just about know all of them with many being very good friends. I also do some gardening work for some and have been able to continue to do so as I am working alone.
However on speaking to many, the attitude to non residents visiting the village ranges from couldn't give a monkeys to almost paranoia.
Comments like "their not local" or "look at that lot,no way are they from the same household" are made about people walking through the village.
There are many people walking through the village that we do not usually see but I recognise a large proportion as being from Bakewell which is less than 2 miles away, who in normal times would not choose to walk uphill to Over Haddon, so I would class them as local.
The funny thing is, is that the villager's, all decent people, who complain about visitors are more than happy to have the postman deliver their mail, the milkman, the fish monger from Buxton, DPD, Parcelforce etc originating from Nottingham and Derby delivering parcels, and Tesco,Waitrose and Morrisons from Chesterfield and Sheffield their food, and me in their gardens!
Far more scope for virus transmission from these I would suggest than a few people walking down the road or through Lathkill Dale.
Very strange times bring out very strange attitudes.
I think we just need to relax a bit more and, unless people are doing really stupid things, live and let live.
Indeed, he had no need.
To be fair, Richard Burgon makes Diane Abbott look like a brain surgeon. Of all the Labour half-wits of the Corbyn era, Burgon has to be the stupidest. And there is some stiff competition for the title.
There are plenty of brain dead examples to chose from but my personal favourite is when Kay Burley interviews him just before the election. "The polls say you can't win" she says. "The polls said we wouldn't win last time" Burgon responds triumphantly. "You didn't" Burley reminds him.
You not only get the wrong expert, but you were nowhere near accurate.
You failed to mention the 5 weeks.
Your 50,000 deaths is back of fag-packet and now you go even further suggesting the 50k is out of date - despite that fact that at the current trajectory, you'd need a TARDIS to get there!
I was out in the Far East working during SARS. A very similar lurgy. It just disappeared. MERS, Avian Flu...
There's every chance that the virus will disappear naturally, perhaps to pop up again in the future in it's current form, or maybe a variant.
Oracle probably knows more on this, or can correct me if I get anything wrong, but there were vaccinations developed and taken through the early stages of testing for both SARS and MERS. But they did not proceed because the funding required to progress was not forthcoming as the threat went away.
I believe the Oxford project now being supported by Govt was actually a MERS vaccination that has been piggy-backed, as much of the early development work is similar.
I can't see lack of funding being a problem now and I also expect that all Governments will be making sure they don't come a cropper going forward - hence no doubt the very cautious unlocking of the UK economy.
So to just counter your doomsday prediction here's mine.
We might get a slight kick up in a few weeks, but a minor one. We'll probably get an additional admin created hit that I'll call "TICs"; if they have 30,000 a few more won't cause any additional umbrage.
So we'll have a final figure for the UK in the 40-50k zone by the end of the year but hopefully, the virus will go away naturally and the figure will be at the lower end, and maybe stay in the 30s.
As a fatalist I figure that none of the above will be of any relevance and what will be will be and on that basis it makes more sense to just relax, get on with life and make the most of what we have.
By the way could fastpacking be regarded as a sport?
For those interested in hearing the real facts, incisive interpretations of BJ's statement, and accurate predictions of outcomes from the best experts available, look no further than the Jeremy Vine program on Radio 2. Far better than all the sources quoted on this thread. :rolleyes:
Some points i have noticed in the past 24 hours... in no particular order, and i have no agenda (other than hoping to get back to fellrunning as soon as is possible):
- a lot more people walking around the streets now, and local parks etc, than there ever was before the outbreak. Are people just desperate to get out of the house any way they can, or are people genuinely going to think about their health more.
- i see a lot of people walking round the city in face-masks, who (and i'll try to say this as diplomatically as possible) appear to have never previously considered their health (or diet) at any point in the last couple of decades.
- I notice that Yorkshire Dales are looking to open up carparks soon, but advise people to be cautious and safe.
- Despite the Cumbria/Lake District initial hostility towards potential visitors, the official line now seems to be more of an acceptance that people will come, but "please be careful if you do"
- A lot of arguments from the Cumbrian point of view about staying off the fells due to the risk to Mountain Rescue... but we know from posts on here (and i'm certainly not pointing fingers as i'd be on the fells if i lived there) that locals are up on the fells daily.
- Such a range of views... i've been in contact two of my regular b&b's within ten miles of each other... the first seem like they cannot wait to have people back... the second seem far more cautious and referred back to a lot of standard lines re picking up the virus from stiles/gates/outsiders/etc.
I'm not going to the Lakes anytime soon (its not a day trip for me anyway) but I am contemplating a day out in Shropshire Hills in the not too distant future. Though after 2 months of road running, I will be glad to be running anywhere off road so the hills of North Worcestershire will do just fine for now. It will be interesting to see what the response from locals will be in Lakes - those I am in touch with are dead against it not only because of the spread of the virus but because a lot of local infrastructure is either shut or unavailable. I guess the councils wont have much choice but to open up car parks, public toilets etc. currently closed to deter tourists.
I've rearranged one of my Lakes weekends which was originally for Ennerdale in June, back to september for the LDMT weekend... hadn't been planning to do it this year but looks like i'll be there (all being well and it goes ahead)
I saw that and was very pleased. I'm planning on having two or three days off work next week and the weather is looking pretty good so will take advantage - it's less than an hour from where I live. Hopefully the car parks will be open by then. Looking forward to it.
From the Financial Times: Update: "following the latest official figures from the four UK nations, a cautious estimate of the number of excess deaths up to 11 May is 56,800." So not my fag packet.
SARS and MERS vanished as they were nowhere near as infectious as Covid 19, their R's were relatively easy, compared to Covid 19, to get under 1. Ebola "goes dirty" before it becomes really infectious - fever/vomiting/diarrhea/bleeding. Covid 19 is so more infectious, and from its world wide spread, much more stable - it is not going to just disappear. It is going to be with us, like 'flu, until we get a really good drug/vaccine. In terms of total UK deaths - I do hope you are right!
And here we have some excellent news.
"Visit Blackpool has rebranded as Do Not Visit Blackpool to discourage visitors."
We don't need any discouraging.
From the Ilkley Gazette:
"A FURTHER four patients who tested positive for coronavirus have died at Airedale Hospital.
The latest deaths bring the total so far to 91.
In Bradford a further eight deaths at Bradford Royal Infirmary have been reported since yesterday, bringing the total there to 168. Two earlier reported deaths at Bradford District Care Trust brings the district's total. including those at Airedale, to 261."
Last time i went to Blackpool i stayed in a b&b advertised a "Sea View in every room".
Didn't even have a window in my room.
After visiting there in December for football (and a 4-0 defeat) i've vowed never to set foot in the place again.
Interesting to note that two holiday lets close to me, already have occupants so much for using common sense and acting responsibly and with consideration for others.
https://www.lancs.live/news/lancashi...ngden-18212057
My uncle was one of the 9 (it's probably more now) at Haslingden Hall. 7 of us attended his funeral last Thursday. He was in Blackburn infirmary for less than 24 hours at the end of April.
He counts in the ONS figures, but my mother told me yesterday that his test from hospital came back negative, so he isn't on the hospital Covid figures, or at least he shouldn't be.
So excuse me for any scepticism of the ONS figures, and even the hospital ones. I think it best to wait until we get in to next year and have some properly analysed excess death figures, and not ones modelled by the press either.
In East Lancs the daily figures for new cases yesterday were:
Blackburn with Darwen 3
Burnley 2
Hyndburn 0
Pendle 1
Rossendale 2
It's almost gone in the community here. I wouldn't be at all surprised if these were sadly all care home related.
Everytime a government decision is made people question it.
We must live a world where common sense does not exist in the masses.
People who live on the boarders are the current crop of numptys asking what they should do.
This is a growing problem, we lack thought, common sense and leadership.
The answer is do what you think is right and stand by your conviction.
My sister-in-laws grandad (not sure what relation he would be to me), was his funeral on monday evening... only immediate family were allowed due to restrictions. However tens and tens of old work colleagues, relatives, and rather amazingly, NHS workers who'd looked after him over the past few years, all congregated in their street around the car to see him off.
Not that i'm against that, but does make you wonder why bother putting restrictions on funerals...
Llani Boy, totally agree we should all relax a bit more! I do think a lot of people feel vulnerable at the moment, with the virus and isolation, and their media feeds often make it worse.
There are some who will think the same no matter what but there are plenty who would benefit from a conversation, friendly but serious, and would come to understand the likely higher risk from a delivery man rather than someone, reasonably local, walking by on the other side of the road.
Idea is to stimulate a bit of thought, a lot of people would work it out for themselves, they just need a wee prod, and it might even help lower their stress levels.
The same conversation would help some of those who want to rush off to honeypot resorts and far away high hills as soon as they think the door is cracked open. What’s the rush?