Mike - it was Patrick Valance hat gave those numbers, and he also qualified that the numbers were from around 5 weeks ago and very much an estimate.
Yes - estimate - hence the "about", "thought" and "around". Sorry to mix up the experts. The 50,000 deaths is also out of date. We have a long long way to go. Have a guess at how many deaths - I do not think it will be the good side of 250,000.