You not only get the wrong expert, but you were nowhere near accurate.Originally Posted by Mike T
You failed to mention the 5 weeks.
Your 50,000 deaths is back of fag-packet and now you go even further suggesting the 50k is out of date - despite that fact that at the current trajectory, you'd need a TARDIS to get there!
I was out in the Far East working during SARS. A very similar lurgy. It just disappeared. MERS, Avian Flu...
There's every chance that the virus will disappear naturally, perhaps to pop up again in the future in it's current form, or maybe a variant.
Oracle probably knows more on this, or can correct me if I get anything wrong, but there were vaccinations developed and taken through the early stages of testing for both SARS and MERS. But they did not proceed because the funding required to progress was not forthcoming as the threat went away.
I believe the Oxford project now being supported by Govt was actually a MERS vaccination that has been piggy-backed, as much of the early development work is similar.
I can't see lack of funding being a problem now and I also expect that all Governments will be making sure they don't come a cropper going forward - hence no doubt the very cautious unlocking of the UK economy.
So to just counter your doomsday prediction here's mine.
We might get a slight kick up in a few weeks, but a minor one. We'll probably get an additional admin created hit that I'll call "TICs"; if they have 30,000 a few more won't cause any additional umbrage.
So we'll have a final figure for the UK in the 40-50k zone by the end of the year but hopefully, the virus will go away naturally and the figure will be at the lower end, and maybe stay in the 30s.
