The country to watch is Sweden. It held fast in refusal to close schools and restaurants.
We will see which countries self harmed.
The ones who closed it all down, making massive future financial problems.
Or the ones that stayed open, and solvent.
Printable View
The country to watch is Sweden. It held fast in refusal to close schools and restaurants.
We will see which countries self harmed.
The ones who closed it all down, making massive future financial problems.
Or the ones that stayed open, and solvent.
So what are the fell running community doing to support local businesses who have supported us in our endeavours previously? We are their lifeblood.
So, if you want to see your local running shop still trading or a big red van at a fell race in the future now is the time to support them.
I know financial issues are a day to day reality at the moment but we need to do our bit if we can. I'm not going away on holiday next week so the money I have saved is going on a new pair of shoes from Pete Bland. Simple.
I thought I saw pb say they were closing for foreseeable.
Quote:
Originally Posted by PeteS
They are still trading online currently offering 15% discount
Very sensible. PB working from home👍
Just read an article on that. It will be fascinating to see if their decision is vindicated or not.Quote:
Originally Posted by Oracle
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/202...iftigniter-rhr
The article also says that of the 800 confimred cases on the Diamond Princess cruise ship, four fifths had either mild symptoms or none at all.
My experience from Portugal is a substantial proportion have had it and it was annoying not desperate. At a time authorities said there were only 200 cases
Sadly in the uk boris wanted to go that way but , we have a vociferous minority who seem to think only the NHS matters who won’t be happy till 100 percent of GDP is spent there, they think the rest of the population Are non essential.
Do these people ever wonder where the money comes from to pay them? Read the article by whinger chief editor of the lancet. Wouldn’t matter what Boris did he would whinge.
So Boris would not have been allowed to do it
Quote:
Originally Posted by Muddy Retriever
If I get Covid 19 I want the establishment/celebrity "mild symptoms" version, that comes with a free corona test.
Whilst on the subject of celebrity it seems to me that every time I turn the television on, which isn't very often these days, there is a so called celebrity promoting themselves or there wares from their living room.The BBC cannot get enough of this of this crap. My other gripe is the news channels telling us what, again celebrities, are posting on twitter. I am not interested and if I was I would be on twitter.Quote:
Originally Posted by Stagger
To manage the looming shortage, lab operators have called for an even stricter decision-making process for who gets tested and who doesn't. Only people who are at risk or showing symptoms should be tested, they argue. "At the moment, we're still testing way too many healthy people," says Borucki. Well over 90 percent of the tests evaluated by Bioscientia come back negative. "We're wasting valuable reagents."
Interesting view from Germany.
https://www.spiegel.de/international...9-eb4364c43f2e
We are also wasting resources of too many eminently qualified labs that could be used to develop, validate and manufacture tests. Or perhaps even batch manufacture primers. ( FYI that’s the reagent that mirrors the virus genetic code in pcr). The civil servants heading PHE should fall on their swords, the government are wrongly blamed.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Witton Park
Info from a local hospital doctor last night, locally wards are empty, A&E is like a ghost town, staff have little to do as they have cleared the decks in anticipation of a wave of cases.
So far only 52 cases confirmed in Blackburn with Darwen with the first case announced on 18/3.
I'm sure the situation will be worse in the hotspots.
Watford - almost out of oxygen, A+E closed except to women in labour. Some hospitals in London seeing virtually nothing except Covid 19 case after Covid 19 case. Our curve is paralleling Italy's. Hopefully the lockdown will start to show some slowdown soon.Quote:
Originally Posted by Witton Park
The question will be asked in time: why are such as portugal so low when neighbouring spain is so high? There is little to pick between demographics, response, or anything else. So far sweden is not seeing adverse effects for not doing irreparable damage to its economy with a lockdown.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike T
It is hard to find explanation. The idea of two strains was mooted but genetics does not seem to bear that out. The idea that the communities that are suffering have multiple generations under one roof, or average occupancy under a roof. Neither seems to borne out. With a few exceptions the profiles seem depressingly similar whatever strategy is adopted.
I am convinced there is a massively greater prevalence in the population that numbers show. All my neighbours (independently)have had it.
Why has it not spread like wildfire through india, pakistan, sub saharan africa, the populations that cannot afford proper medical care, and cannot lockdown and eat? Is there a more general resistance in these populations always exposed to microorganisms than the specific resistance against individual strains? Are there immune systems inherently more robust because we are too clean living.
I personally think the south koreans are building trouble for the future. The moment the lockdown reverses, I think they will suffer the same as all others. In the end - herd resistance is all there is. What should have been done in my view is to lock up all the vulnerable in house quarantine whilst it burns out in the general population, and then , at least we still have an economy. No doubt the same voices will want to spend even more money on public services, when post corona there will be massively less to spend not more.
Meanwhile - I know of at least one modern biotech lab with all the facilites to help in one aspect, but all public health england seems interested in is transporting like PCR machines to their own test centres. The strength of the German response was mobilising a far bigger private sector with a far more distributed regional health system. I hope that is not lost on the socialist loonies that run the higher up parts of these systems in the UK, for whom no amount of spending will ever be enough, however unwisely it is spent.
The same voices that now demand we focus on the NHS because they and few others are "essential". I would like to know what massive cuts they are proposing to the NHS, since they will have trashed the private sector revenue that pays for it all. But they wont. They will argue for spending more, when our tax revenue will drop of a cliff.
The journalist response has been ridiculous. Everything is easy for those who do not have to do it. Which bit of world shortage of equipment, reagents and PPE dont they get? A massive consignment of PPE from NHS regular supplier in france has been stolen by Macron. Why is that not the story, not the endless whinge of "whistleblowers" and journalists about lack of PPE. If they have easy answers lets hear them. If not then shut up!
Lots think they have had it - even before it had escaped from China. One guesstimate I have seen is 3% in the UK. We don't know. As to the different incidences - and deaths - in different countries, it does of course depend on how many you test, and how good the test is. If the test is not close to 100% accurate, with a condition that is relatively uncommon in the community, you get far more more false positives than true positives.
As the deaths are climbing, I think it is safe to say the underlying incidence is also climbing - so however many have had it, there has not yet been enough of them for herd immunity to have any beneficial effect.
Looks like Watford was a bit of a false flag. There is a technical issue with the oxygen equipment, not a shortage.
I think I saw a test imply 10 percent have it, which I am guessing means at least another 10-15 have already had it, and with another 5 assymptomatic ( because they say 17 percent are totally assymptomatic) that could already be 30 percent even. So It may Already be significant. I think early symptom guides implying high temperature caused many people to be uncertain. Portugal I think has such numbers even if we don’t.
Already 30 percent would drops an infection rate of each case infecting 2 others down to only 1.4 so immunity effects would already be noticeable in slowing it down.
But who knows? If I have a major criticism it is the lack of a website symptom reporter for those isolating. Sure there is one now, but it doesn’t allow me to report what I had, only what I have.
Those critical of the testing, should listen to what Hancock says: the tests they tried to validate weren’t reliable, it is not a fast process. Spain got caught with a test only 30 percent accurate. The normal process even when on fast track takes months not days.
Journalists should back off, they are helping nobody.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike T
I think the duff Spanish test was bought from China.Quote:
Originally Posted by Oracle
Germany is testing half a million a week but their system is decentralised with many private labs testing. Here on the other hand it is all centralised and Public Health England has reportedly rebuffed numerous offers from private and university labs to help. If true it is a scandal.
How will we get herd immunity if we are in lockdown? I wonder how we will get out of this situation. If we stay in lockdown for months the economy will be wrecked and millions of people’s lives ruined. When they do lift the lockdown the virus will still be there. If that is in autumn, the next outbreak will coincide with the next flu season.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike T
Sweden does appear to be adopting the policy of herd immunity. I wonder whether they will hold their nerve.
We will get herd immunity even with people obeying lockdown as we are still mixing - in shops/hospitals/public transport/at essential work/care homes - and Covid 19 is so infectious. But with lockdown the curve is flattened - we hope - so that the NHS can save those who can be saved, rather than being overwhelmed. Herd immunity is not a choice - it will happen - but we hopefully can influence how quickly/slowly we get there, and how many people die in the process. The government's mistake was to think the epidemic needed a bit of help, and now, despite video evidence to the contrary, are denying that they were thinking that way. Lockdown should have been weeks earlier. As for horse racing, and pop concerts ....Quote:
Originally Posted by Muddy Retriever
Id heard that one plan would be to give out immunity certificates to those who’d already had the virus. This would be possible once there were reliable antibody tests. People with such a certificate would be able to carry on with their lives. People without one would have to stay in lockdown. I see two flaws with that idea.
Firstly, it would penalise those people who have been most diligent in social distancing.
Secondly, it would probably encourage people who hadn’t contracted Covid 19 yet to actively seek to get it, particularly if they deemed themselves to be in a low risk category.
Probably take years to administer the tests for everyone.
And thirdly, unless the test is extremely accurate, a lot of the positives would be false positives.Quote:
Originally Posted by Muddy Retriever
Ryanair - I was due to fly to Fuerteventura 21/3 for 8 dayts from Liverpool.
19/3 they cancelled the flight out.
They offered me a refund or transfer. Of course I chose a refund, but the system wouldn't allow me to complete probably because my return flight was still active.
20/3 I got the same email, this time it allowed me to claim the refund advising "Refunds will be processed within 7 working days back to the form of payment used for the original booking."
27/3 I received an email confirming receipt of my claim for refund, but due to load it might take another 10 days to process.
This morning.
Dear Mr Taylor,
We refer to your correspondence dated 27/03/2020.
We apologise, for the cancellation of your flight FR4081 from Liverpool to Fuerteventura on 21/03/2020 which was due to the current worldwide COVID 19 crisis.
As per interpretive guidelines on EU passenger rights, announced by the EU commission on cancellations caused due to COVID 19, this is now classified as an extraordinary circumstance and compensation does not apply under EU261/2004.
If you remain dissatisfied with the final decision made from our customer services team, you may contact the Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) and their Passenger Advice and Complaints Team (PACT).
We hope the above clarifies the matter and we have now closed your claim
Yours sincerely,
They were cheap flights, so it's not the money although still £230, but the principal. I can see things kicking of big time.
I've just claimed now from the credit card so see how that goes.
Is the failure to lockdown sooner really the main fault? South Korea hasn't had a lockdown and their number of fatalities is tiny compared to us, despite being much closer to the initial epicentre. What they did, which has proved hugely effective is mass testing and contract tracing. We have spectacularly failed to do that.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike T
You could argue that South Korea had the experience of SARS to fall back on. But closer to home Germany is testing half a million a week, while in Britain, we have only recently achieved 10,000 a day. This is a national disgrace, wherever the fault lies. Germany has a much lower fatality rate than the UK.
I'm often hearing this, yet on the tracker https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries they are currently down as 981,460 total tests, so something is amiss.Quote:
Originally Posted by Muddy Retriever
It looks like the half a million figure means capability now. Here is a bit more detail on the 981,460 figure, which is the total figure up to one week ago.Quote:
Originally Posted by Witton Park
– The cumulative total of samples tested was 918460;
– For calendar week 13 (which ends on 29 March), 143 labs reported 354521 samples tested;
– For calendar week 12 (which ends on 22 March), 176 labs reported 348619 samples tested;
– For calendar week 11 (which ends on 15 March), 114 labs reported 127457 samples tested.
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-testing#germany
A lot of propaganda
Quote:
Originally Posted by Witton Park
As much as i'd hate to do it myself, the only thing these companies hate is negative publicity on Social Media.... an angry rant on their facebook page... "Ryanair offered me a transfer/refund... I took the refund then they wouldn't pay" etc, might get them into action.
I just simply refuse to use budget airlines wherever possible (whilst appreciating that is not always possible)
Something should have been done sooner - testing/tracing/lockdown - something. Germany is doing well, as are Australia and New Zealand.Quote:
Originally Posted by Muddy Retriever
It wouldn't surprise me if what they were quoting was factually incorrect. I'm sure I heard Martin Lewis on 5 live a couple of weeks ago saying that people would be entitled to a full refund if the airline cancelled your flight.Quote:
Originally Posted by Witton Park
It looks to me like straight forward breech of contract. They were unable to provide with the service you contracted for (whatever the reason) so you should be entitled to your money back. Mind you, I've never liked Michael O'Leary.
[QUOTE=Witton Park;659338]Ryanair.
Dear Mr Taylor,
We refer to your correspondence dated 27/03/2020.
We apologise, for the cancellation of your flight FR4081 from Liverpool to Fuerteventura on 21/03/2020 which was due to the current worldwide COVID 19 crisis.
As per interpretive guidelines on EU passenger rights, announced by the EU commission on cancellations caused due to COVID 19, this is now classified as an extraordinary circumstance and compensation does not apply under EU261/2004.
If you remain dissatisfied with the final decision made from our customer services team, you may contact the Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) and their Passenger Advice and Complaints Team (PACT).
We hope the above clarifies the matter and we have now closed your claim
Yours sincerely,
It looks to me that the EU have changed the rules and airlines are following new guidance (obviously to their benefit)
I initially had a problem claiming, and then when I did I'm suspecting their system has a problem because I have read the EU directive and it is a 2004 one and to do with compensation not refunds.Quote:
Originally Posted by Travs
So I'll wait and see what happens with the credit card. I'm sure I'll get my money back.
You should get a full refund from the airline. Airlines are trying to fob people off with vouchers but you don't have to accept.
What are my rights?
If your flight is cancelled, you are entitled to a full refund to the original form of payment within seven days, although many airlines will be struggling to meet that deadline. You can accept, or refuse, vouchers or a rebooking but a voucher will probably be invalid if the airline later goes bust
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52105526
With respect mike: the government has had almost polar opposites in terms of advice from the medical community.
The oxford and imperial studies are massively far apart. It is acting on inevitably imperfect information , and a fog of wildly varying advice. It has appointed two well qualified professionals, and it cannot simultaneously go left and right. Dissenting voices are not helpful.
The government also has to try to avoid trashing the economy completely, a constraint the medical community never seems to even consider, let alone take into account. Every week that goes by, the worse the financial prognosis becomes.A population that is healthy but dies of starvation is not a success.
From the first reports the government were saying restrictions would come, nothing changed,
Germany is benefiting from a decentralised and far more privatised structure. I agree the labyrinthine nature of PHE and uppper echelons of NHS needs dismantling and replacing with something fit for purpose, but it won’t happen any time soon.
But then Scandinavian states are doing well, not locking down so far.
The reality is nobody knows , the government always said that it would be staged restrictions. There is no u turn I see, only journalists trying to play gotcha, and medics trying to play told you so. Neither of which is useful. The editor of lancet has proved little except his own arrogance in believing he alone knew best.
Yes we need testing , but considering the normal pathway of validation ( a Drug takes seven years , hundreds of millions, is likely to fail, and more or less uneconomic because of short patents) , expecting mass testing fast is unrealistic because of how trials work. There is an undeclared war going on for ppe, ventilators and reagents
The left and europhile dominated media are a disgrace. On the day macron seized a massive shipment of NHS destined ppe, from its regular supplier the media response was not to criticise France but to criticise own government for the lack of ppe!
Nobody knows or will ever know if the government made mistakes, because nobody knows what would have happened on a different path. Hindsight is 2020
We are living in the fog of war,
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike T
He has been very critical of the Government and said last Thursday:Quote:
Originally Posted by Oracle
'Honestly, I'm sorry to say this, but it's a national scandal. We shouldn't be in this position. We knew in the last week of January that this was coming. The message from China was absolutely clear that a new virus with pandemic potential was hitting cities, people were being admitted to hospital, admitted to intensive care units and dying.
'And the mortality was growing, we knew that eleven weeks ago. Then we wasted February when we could have acted - time when we could have ramped up testing, time when we could have got personal protective equipment ready and disseminated. We did not do it.'
He may well be right on all the above. However go back to January 24th and he actually tweeted this:
"A call for caution please. Media are escalating anxiety by talking of a “killer virus” + “growing fears”. In truth, from what we currently know, 2019-nCoV has moderate transmissibility and relatively low pathogenicity. There is no reason to foster panic with exaggerated language."
Thanks for digging those up.
It all proves that nobody (including him) really knew.
One problem most are missing about testing is that to validate a test you need an infected population sufficiently representatitve of the population. That is hard to do without..... an infected population!!! So you cannot validate in advance, even if you have a gene sequence!
You also need sufficient knowledge of the disease pathology, to know who was and was not infected. Even the controls are a serious problem if some are assymptomatic. Once the cases are enrolled on a trial, it takes a significant period to validate.
All this is difficult to do.
NORMALLY, you would expect international cooperation (which Bill Gates is endeavouring to do on vaccine) but in this environment it is clearly every country for itself.
Our media are hopelessly unrealistic. They seem to think criticism for criticism sake is useful.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Muddy Retriever
Thanks for posting - I missed that reversal of opinion.Quote:
Originally Posted by Muddy Retriever
I don't think comparisons with other countries are particularly helpful at this stage, we haven't even reached half time yet.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike T
For instance: Population of London is 9 million.
Population of the whole of New Zealand is 5 million.
Population of Australia is 25 million and that is a BIG place.
Very probably age demographics and a multitude of other factors play a role in decision making. After the event is the time to compare like with like and learn from different approaches and problems faced by each society.
My personal take on the current situation here is not to try and prevent everyone catching the virus, but to slow the spread up enough to be able to save the highest % of saveable people possible and not be overwhelmed.
If there was a fault in strategy, I think it was that the elderly and vulnerable should have been quarantined early not everyone else. I still see 80 year olds in the supermarket queues: complaining about how youngsters are the problem by gathering together!Quote:
Originally Posted by molehill