We are also wasting resources of too many eminently qualified labs that could be used to develop, validate and manufacture tests. Or perhaps even batch manufacture primers. ( FYI that’s the reagent that mirrors the virus genetic code in pcr). The civil servants heading PHE should fall on their swords, the government are wrongly blamed.
Originally Posted by Witton Park
Info from a local hospital doctor last night, locally wards are empty, A&E is like a ghost town, staff have little to do as they have cleared the decks in anticipation of a wave of cases.
So far only 52 cases confirmed in Blackburn with Darwen with the first case announced on 18/3.
I'm sure the situation will be worse in the hotspots.
Richard Taylor
"William Tell could take an apple off your head. Taylor could take out a processed pea."
Sid Waddell
Watford - almost out of oxygen, A+E closed except to women in labour. Some hospitals in London seeing virtually nothing except Covid 19 case after Covid 19 case. Our curve is paralleling Italy's. Hopefully the lockdown will start to show some slowdown soon.
The question will be asked in time: why are such as portugal so low when neighbouring spain is so high? There is little to pick between demographics, response, or anything else. So far sweden is not seeing adverse effects for not doing irreparable damage to its economy with a lockdown.
It is hard to find explanation. The idea of two strains was mooted but genetics does not seem to bear that out. The idea that the communities that are suffering have multiple generations under one roof, or average occupancy under a roof. Neither seems to borne out. With a few exceptions the profiles seem depressingly similar whatever strategy is adopted.
I am convinced there is a massively greater prevalence in the population that numbers show. All my neighbours (independently)have had it.
Why has it not spread like wildfire through india, pakistan, sub saharan africa, the populations that cannot afford proper medical care, and cannot lockdown and eat? Is there a more general resistance in these populations always exposed to microorganisms than the specific resistance against individual strains? Are there immune systems inherently more robust because we are too clean living.
I personally think the south koreans are building trouble for the future. The moment the lockdown reverses, I think they will suffer the same as all others. In the end - herd resistance is all there is. What should have been done in my view is to lock up all the vulnerable in house quarantine whilst it burns out in the general population, and then , at least we still have an economy. No doubt the same voices will want to spend even more money on public services, when post corona there will be massively less to spend not more.
Meanwhile - I know of at least one modern biotech lab with all the facilites to help in one aspect, but all public health england seems interested in is transporting like PCR machines to their own test centres. The strength of the German response was mobilising a far bigger private sector with a far more distributed regional health system. I hope that is not lost on the socialist loonies that run the higher up parts of these systems in the UK, for whom no amount of spending will ever be enough, however unwisely it is spent.
The same voices that now demand we focus on the NHS because they and few others are "essential". I would like to know what massive cuts they are proposing to the NHS, since they will have trashed the private sector revenue that pays for it all. But they wont. They will argue for spending more, when our tax revenue will drop of a cliff.
The journalist response has been ridiculous. Everything is easy for those who do not have to do it. Which bit of world shortage of equipment, reagents and PPE dont they get? A massive consignment of PPE from NHS regular supplier in france has been stolen by Macron. Why is that not the story, not the endless whinge of "whistleblowers" and journalists about lack of PPE. If they have easy answers lets hear them. If not then shut up!
Last edited by Oracle; 05-04-2020 at 01:11 PM.
Lots think they have had it - even before it had escaped from China. One guesstimate I have seen is 3% in the UK. We don't know. As to the different incidences - and deaths - in different countries, it does of course depend on how many you test, and how good the test is. If the test is not close to 100% accurate, with a condition that is relatively uncommon in the community, you get far more more false positives than true positives.
As the deaths are climbing, I think it is safe to say the underlying incidence is also climbing - so however many have had it, there has not yet been enough of them for herd immunity to have any beneficial effect.
Looks like Watford was a bit of a false flag. There is a technical issue with the oxygen equipment, not a shortage.
Richard Taylor
"William Tell could take an apple off your head. Taylor could take out a processed pea."
Sid Waddell
I think I saw a test imply 10 percent have it, which I am guessing means at least another 10-15 have already had it, and with another 5 assymptomatic ( because they say 17 percent are totally assymptomatic) that could already be 30 percent even. So It may Already be significant. I think early symptom guides implying high temperature caused many people to be uncertain. Portugal I think has such numbers even if we don’t.
Already 30 percent would drops an infection rate of each case infecting 2 others down to only 1.4 so immunity effects would already be noticeable in slowing it down.
But who knows? If I have a major criticism it is the lack of a website symptom reporter for those isolating. Sure there is one now, but it doesn’t allow me to report what I had, only what I have.
Those critical of the testing, should listen to what Hancock says: the tests they tried to validate weren’t reliable, it is not a fast process. Spain got caught with a test only 30 percent accurate. The normal process even when on fast track takes months not days.
Journalists should back off, they are helping nobody.
Last edited by Oracle; 05-04-2020 at 07:13 PM.
I think the duff Spanish test was bought from China.
Germany is testing half a million a week but their system is decentralised with many private labs testing. Here on the other hand it is all centralised and Public Health England has reportedly rebuffed numerous offers from private and university labs to help. If true it is a scandal.
How will we get herd immunity if we are in lockdown? I wonder how we will get out of this situation. If we stay in lockdown for months the economy will be wrecked and millions of people’s lives ruined. When they do lift the lockdown the virus will still be there. If that is in autumn, the next outbreak will coincide with the next flu season.
Sweden does appear to be adopting the policy of herd immunity. I wonder whether they will hold their nerve.
We will get herd immunity even with people obeying lockdown as we are still mixing - in shops/hospitals/public transport/at essential work/care homes - and Covid 19 is so infectious. But with lockdown the curve is flattened - we hope - so that the NHS can save those who can be saved, rather than being overwhelmed. Herd immunity is not a choice - it will happen - but we hopefully can influence how quickly/slowly we get there, and how many people die in the process. The government's mistake was to think the epidemic needed a bit of help, and now, despite video evidence to the contrary, are denying that they were thinking that way. Lockdown should have been weeks earlier. As for horse racing, and pop concerts ....
