Quote Originally Posted by noel View Post
That would be incredible. Very interesting. I wonder what the odds are on the Brexit party getting a majority of MEPs then them having to sit in the European parliament for another 2 years while we ask for yet another extension.

On that subject, I notice things have gone pretty quiet on the Brexit negotiations front. "Yes, it's very important and all that, but we'd like a few days' holiday first." There's nothing like a deadline to focus minds.
Incredible and not very scientific of course, but I'd say in a period where we have had almost daily poll updates, the polls seem to have dried up in the last week or so.
I wonder why?

My own assessment a few months back was that if we ended up in the EU elections, around 70% of Tory voters would jump ship and around 30% of Labour voters to a Brexit Party, which seems most likely The Brexit Party now.

There will also be Remainers deserting the two because of their lack of clarity, the middle ground approach doesn't work on an issue that is polarised.

Turnout will be a key factor. Pro EU might be seen as more likely to vote than Leavers.

But I can easily see a 30% + vote for the Brexit Party, Labour dropping to mid 20s and Tories maybe even under 20%

The UK contingent in the EU Parliament is already pretty anti EU as UKIP won the 2014 EU election, so the balance won't change a great deal from our perspective.

But the balance may change elsewhere, with many of the 27 becoming more Eurosceptic, not in the majority perhaps, but there is a shift.

France will be interesting. Macron wants more EU, but not sure the French public do.