Quote Originally Posted by Fellbeast View Post
These statistics are pretty good - the weekly death rate in England and Wales for most of the year (based on the average for the years 2014 through to 2019) seems to be about 10,000 with this rising to a high of c 15,000 over a normal winter. In March, April and May though the normal 10,000 average went through the roof reaching a peak of about 23,000 pw. That can be attributed to Covid and was squashed by the total lockdown. Deaths though now are starting to rise again and, if there was any lesson to be gained from the first lockdown, surely its not to dilly dally about.

I personally really hope what is being done at the minute proves to be just about good enough, with no further lockdowns or firebreak lockdowns, but its a really tough call to get right and, based on the existing government's record, its hard to have any confidence in them getting it right this time
https://twitter.com/RP131/status/132...565504/photo/1

This guy must have time on his hands

This Wales one will be interesting. He's taken the Welsh Govt forecasts without their firebreak, with a 2 week and also a 3 week break and he plots it daily and updates.

If you look at the way the Welsh believe their current lockdown will take effect, it is moving the peak back, squashing it a little from end December in to end January.

But even with the 3 week break, deaths are forecast to be higher from end Jan onwards and this only accounts for "with Covid".
So the economic hit (that will be carried by the English) will be for a short term effect that will be clawed back somewhat next year.

But consider they are forecasting more deaths than Spring 2020, which I think is nigh on impossible, but what it does mean is they'll be able to claim it worked if they avoid their over-forecast doomsday scenario.