I'm not sure if it will be a hung Parliament. Momentum is an important factor in elections.

One thing that is for certain is that Labour do not have it. They had managed to climb in opnion polls and make a Tory outright Govt less likely until the budget and then they have slowly dropped down and are consistently under 30% now.

The Lib Dems did have it after the first TV debate, and the big question was, could they maintain it?

The Tories clearly had it until the first TV debate, and then lost it. Have they regained it?

My gut feeling is (and you might say he would say that wouldn't he!) that the Lib Dems gained purely on the show of the first TV debate. The policies now have been looked at, and the instant reaction perhaps become more measured.

I see a change over the last few days in the polls where The Tories seem a couple of % higher whilst the Lib Dem seem a couple of % lower.

A lot will rest on the last debate on Thursday.

My gut feeling is that the Tories will get to around 37% at the election with Lib Dem on around 29% and Labour imploding to around 24% and I think that will give us a small Tory majority.

I question the TV debates though. The "other" seem to have been totally frozen out. There's no doubt that the Lib Dems have picked up a bit from Tory and Labour as a result, but with the recent distrust of mainstream politicians I think many were expecting "others" to poll quite high this year, as a result of a protest vote.

UKIP, Green and BNP will be largely insignificant as the debates seem to have focussed that protest vote on Nick Clegg.