Quote Originally Posted by Mike T View Post
" Philip Hammond has admitted the Brexit vote’s blow to the economy would force the government to borrow £122bn more than hoped as he pushed back government plans to balance the books in his autumn statement."

I just don't believe people would have voted for this .....
A few points in answer to this.

- What Hammond actually said was this was what the OBR's forecast. He never said that this is what he believed. A small point maybe.
- The OBR was forecasting that the Government would have to borrow £122 billion in total by 2020. Of this £59 billion was attributable to the effects of Brexit.
- The most important point is that this is a forecast - not fact. This concept seems to be quite a difficult one for some of you to grasp. Any forecast is only as good as the assumptions that are put into it and can and often is blown away by unforeseen events. The OBR's forecast are almost always wrong. It's forecast for this year is now actually higher than what it was forecasting in March, when all the expectations were that we would stay in the EU.

Just before the referendum the Treasury forecast that growth would be -0.1% in the quarter to September if we voted to leave, such would be the shock to the economy in terms of uncertainty etc. In the event growth was 0.5%. That's a pretty spectacular difference for one quarter wouldn't you say? Perhaps some of the Remain supporters on here would like to explain why they got it so wrong.

Personally I'd like to wait and see what happens rather than assume that forecasts that are almost always wrong will be correct this time. And even if they do come true, we will still be doing better than our counterparts in the eurozone.