On one hand I have a retired man I know through a fell running forum, who I think used to have links to the UK shoe industry, telling me the economy will be better. On the other hand I have the office of budgetary responsibility telling me that Brexit will cost the UK economy £67 billion over the next 10 years.
I'm just not sure who to believe.
Neither! I'm relying on the neutrals amongst the absentee press barons for my opinions...!Originally Posted by noel
On one hand I have a retired man I know through a fell running forum, who I think used to have links to the UK shoe industry, telling me the economy will be better. On the other hand I have the office of budgetary responsibility telling me that Brexit will cost the UK economy £67 billion over the next 10 years.
I'm just not sure who to believe.
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Positive spin, anyone?!!
A few points in answer to this.
- What Hammond actually said was this was what the OBR's forecast. He never said that this is what he believed. A small point maybe.
- The OBR was forecasting that the Government would have to borrow £122 billion in total by 2020. Of this £59 billion was attributable to the effects of Brexit.
- The most important point is that this is a forecast - not fact. This concept seems to be quite a difficult one for some of you to grasp. Any forecast is only as good as the assumptions that are put into it and can and often is blown away by unforeseen events. The OBR's forecast are almost always wrong. It's forecast for this year is now actually higher than what it was forecasting in March, when all the expectations were that we would stay in the EU.
Just before the referendum the Treasury forecast that growth would be -0.1% in the quarter to September if we voted to leave, such would be the shock to the economy in terms of uncertainty etc. In the event growth was 0.5%. That's a pretty spectacular difference for one quarter wouldn't you say? Perhaps some of the Remain supporters on here would like to explain why they got it so wrong.
Personally I'd like to wait and see what happens rather than assume that forecasts that are almost always wrong will be correct this time. And even if they do come true, we will still be doing better than our counterparts in the eurozone.
Borrowing £122 billion is pretty small compared with what previous governments have borrowed.
The arguments always seem to come back to money which pretty much everyone seems to agree, we don't know what the figures will be.
Whatever the actual numbers, there is still pretty hefty weekly sum that currently going to the EU that we will be able to spend as our elected government determines.
[QUOTE=Muddy Retriever;628841]
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- The most important point is that this is a forecast - not fact. This concept seems to be quite a difficult one for some of you to grasp. Any forecast is only as good as the assumptions that are put into it and can and often is blown away by unforeseen events.
Personally I'd like to wait and see what happens rather than assume that forecasts that are almost always wrong will be correct this time. QUOTE]
Mmmh. I was a Planning Manager in a previous existence and on who to believe: Cui bono? is a good start. And healthy scepticism of well educated people with job security, a fat salary, an index linked pension,...who put "principles" ahead of numbers and economics.
But as Dickens put into the mouth of Mrs Squeers (Nicholas Nickleby):
As she frequently remarked when she made any such mistake, it would be all the same a hundred years hence.
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Last edited by Graham Breeze; 24-11-2016 at 11:54 AM.
I understood not one word of that, so that should probably have disqualified me from voting in the referendum or expressing an opinion.
As usual the Dail Mash nails it http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/s...20161124117827
Retired - what gave you that impression?On one hand I have a retired man I know through a fell running forum, who I think used to have links to the UK shoe industry, telling me the economy will be better. On the other hand I have the office of budgetary responsibility telling me that Brexit will cost the UK economy £67 billion over the next 10 years.
I'm just not sure who to believe.
Richard Taylor
"William Tell could take an apple off your head. Taylor could take out a processed pea."
Sid Waddell
Must be all those post-elevenses posts you write....!
I'd probably have more time if I worked in the the state sectorMust be all those post-elevenses posts you write....!
Noel - I have my own business, today I'm shipping orders to Spain, Germany and Singapore as well as my UK orders.
I import from the EU and from the Far East.
One point about the OBR, they use the official stats for much of what they produce, the very same official stats that say we give £350 Million a week to the EU ironically.
Richard Taylor
"William Tell could take an apple off your head. Taylor could take out a processed pea."
Sid Waddell
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