New political party?

[anthonykay]

So: UKIP is now filling the (small) void left by the disappearance of the BNP. The ERG want the Conservatives to fill the void left by UKIP. And now the Independents have noticed that there is a bit of a void left by the shrinking of the Lib Dem party.

Regarding fighting a by-election: I think they have precedent on their side. I haven't got any statistics, but I get the impression that in the past only a minority of MPs who have defected ever resigned to fight a by-election. And there is the legal point that we vote for the MP, not the party. Having said that, there is certainly a strong moral case that they should trigger by-elections; although personally I would prefer to just have a general election.

[Stagger]

Personally DT i don't think any thread requires closing.

[Witton Park]

So: UKIP is now filling the (small) void left by the disappearance of the BNP. The ERG want the Conservatives to fill the void left by UKIP. And now the Independents have noticed that there is a bit of a void left by the shrinking of the Lib Dem party.

Regarding fighting a by-election: I think they have precedent on their side. I haven't got any statistics, but I get the impression that in the past only a minority of MPs who have defected ever resigned to fight a by-election. And there is the legal point that we vote for the MP, not the party. Having said that, there is certainly a strong moral case that they should trigger by-elections; although personally I would prefer to just have a general election.

Normally the MP doesn't call a by election when they switch. Carswell and Reckless did when they went to UKIP.

But there are some special circumstances here in my opinion mentioned in my earlier post.

There's also the clear evidence that particularly Heidi Allen and Sarah Wollaston have changed direction since the General Election.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B9yl...ature=youtu.be
Heidi Allen

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q1TI...ature=youtu.be
Sarah Wollaston

Have a read of this from Sarah Wollaston pre referendum. It could have been written by Rees-Mogg.
http://www.drsarah.org.uk/sarah's-bl...ederal-eu/1644

[DrPatrickBarry]

But not self-less and brave enough to let those who voted for them have their say.

Agree 100%, they are the same as the Brexiteers, who are afraid to ask the people is this really the type of Brexit you voted for, are you sure you really want what is on offer?

[noel]

I'm quite interested to see this development. I'm normally centrist so am pleased to see any move that might stop the right going more right or the left going more left.

What will come of it? Probably nothing. I hope that both major parties will see this as a threat and come back to their more traditional slightly-right and slightly-left positions.

I'm reminded of a response that John Major gave on a political podcast when asked about whether a new centrist grouping akin to the Macron movement in France should happen in the UK. He said he didn't think so because once the centrist party loses power (which they would inevitably at some point), the only option would be extremists. At least in the current system, there is an incentive for the two extremes to fight for the middle ground. It's just a shame that both parties seem to have currently forgotten that's the route to power.

[Muddy Retriever]

The one common thread they have is to offer a 2nd referendum because they claim the facts have changed. Clearly the facts have changed for their constituents, but they refuse to offer them a 2nd chance.

Their hypocrisy is quite stunning isn't it. I think worse of the Tory defectors than the Labour ones to be honest. For the latter their party is controlled by a bunch of hard left anti-semites, it's hardly surprising that the likes of Luciana Berger feel uncomfortable. Although Labour did promise to respect the referendum result at the election, most of their MP's and members are remainers.

But I cannot understand the logic of the Tory splitters. Their manifesto explicitly promised to leave the Customs Union and Single Market. If they disagreed with that why did they stand as Tory MP's in that election in the first place?

[Witton Park]

Agree 100%, they are the same as the Brexiteers, who are afraid to ask the people is this really the type of Brexit you voted for, are you sure you really want what is on offer?

I disagree Pat.

If the Remainers accept that we decided to Leave, so there is a no double or quits and what any 2nd ref would be about would be "what kind of leave" I think most would say OK.

The vast majority of Leavers voted to leave - quite simple. We did it with the warnings of Project Fear ringing in our ears, so whilst we might not have believed it, we were certainly aware of the potential for a contraction following a vote to leave.

Having voted to Leave, we knew that Article 50 would be invoked ( we were told immediately) giving us until June 2018 to sort out the arrangements.

They've had an extra 9 months.

If they can sort out an acceptable arrangement, fine. If not, we leave.

I do not know a Leave voter who would not have accepted that at the time of the referendum or now.

So in a 2nd ref if we had:

Would you prefer to leave the EU under the deal arranged by HM Gov
or
Would you prefer to leave the EU without agreement.

I'd go for that 2nd referendum.

[Witton Park]

I'm quite interested to see this development. I'm normally centrist so am pleased to see any move that might stop the right going more right or the left going more left.

What will come of it? Probably nothing. I hope that both major parties will see this as a threat and come back to their more traditional slightly-right and slightly-left positions.

I'm reminded of a response that John Major gave on a political podcast when asked about whether a new centrist grouping akin to the Macron movement in France should happen in the UK. He said he didn't think so because once the centrist party loses power (which they would inevitably at some point), the only option would be extremists. At least in the current system, there is an incentive for the two extremes to fight for the middle ground. It's just a shame that both parties seem to have currently forgotten that's the route to power.

But are you a centrist under the historical definition of centrist or a centrist within the balance of today's politics Noel?

Because in historical terms, the current Tory Government can be assessed as centre left even.

Labour have been tacking left since 2007 and the Tories have followed.

A centrist of the 80s would be seen as Alt-Right by Soubry.

Chart 3.jpg

[noel]

That's an interesting assertion WP. That's certainly not the view of many of the protagonists of the late 80s and early 90s tory governments - Heseltine, Major, Clark. They perceive themselves as much more centrist than the current government. Do you think time has moderated their views?

I certainly agree that the Cameron/Osborne government was more centrist. This comes back to my point: securing the middle ground is an easy way to win power.

But yes, it's all perspective and there's certainly a historical element to this. Compared with the politics in other countries, our political parties would seem out of place and extreme on specific points that we regard as completely sane and normal.

[Witton Park]

That's an interesting assertion WP. That's certainly not the view of many of the protagonists of the late 80s and early 90s tory governments - Heseltine, Major, Clark. They perceive themselves as much more centrist than the current government. Do you think time has moderated their views?

I certainly agree that the Cameron/Osborne government was more centrist. This comes back to my point: securing the middle ground is an easy way to win power.

But yes, it's all perspective and there's certainly a historical element to this. Compared with the politics in other countries, our political parties would seem out of place and extreme on specific points that we regard as completely sane and normal.

But if everyone's playing down the left wing, it gets a bit congested and the centre then becomes the inside left position.

That's how I perceive it.

If you define these 3 politicians on Europe then fair enough.

But when you look at their wider policies, Hesletine is to the right of the modern day Tories. Free market, privatisation, council house sales, he proposed rate reform in the 70s.

If you look at the chart on my last post, it has the Tories moving left in 2001. I would place that move in 1992 under Major and clearly Clark and Major are politically to the left of Thatcher.