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Thread: Brexit

  1. #691
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    Quote Originally Posted by DrPatrickBarry View Post
    Just been reading the comments below that article, yet another US based economist getting the knife into Europe, you would almost think they were getting scared.
    The Euro is dead. Those interested in why should read Werner Sim and look at the history of currency union failures. Be wary of Stiglitz. Nobel laureate he may be, but he missed the inevitability of 2007 and was only wise after the event.

    Study wages , youth unemployment , tax bands ( even on minimum wage) and crippling debt in Portugal ,greece, Italy, which shows they are condemned to eternal misery , and Germany doesn't care which will ultimately be Brussels undoing. Remainers should study just how nasty their EU is.

    Catastrophic capital flows out of Italy and ECB issuer limits hitting buffers now show the game is up. It is just a matter of when. All the Italian banks are built on quick sand and will take other banks down with them.

    Germany refusing Macrons Eurobonds to spread the pain ( which Stiglitz mentions) is playing King Canute (and anyway is in fundamental breach of the treaties) German taxpayers are on the hook anyway for target default when Italy crashes, but nobody has told them yet. Only Germany leaving could save the Euro. The EU will collapse when the euro does.

  2. #692
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    Quote Originally Posted by DrPatrickBarry View Post
    Just been reading the comments below that article, yet another US based economist getting the knife into Europe, you would almost think they were getting scared.
    What has where he is based got to do with it? Looking into Stiglitz's background he doesn't seem to have any stake in the game. That's of course quite unlike your source who is the Secretary General of a euro institution. I don't really think you're in any position to throw stones.

    When you say getting scared, I don't know what you mean. Scared of what? The eurozone is hardly in an enviable position and it's quite revealing that no other trade block around the world is seeking to copy it.

    I've referenced a few links now, which explain the fundamental flaws in the euro's design. However rather than engaging with the arguments that have been made you seek only to undermine the source without any justification as far as I can see. Closing your eyes and kidding yourself that there isn't a problem won't make it go away.

  3. #693
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    Concrete example of "project real" becoming project reality last night. A good friend of mine is a senior manager at Arden Dies (http://www.ardendies.com/). Yesterday they summoned our local Tory MP and brexitieer William Wragg into the the company to supervise a CNC milling machine being loaded onto a truck to be sent to Germany. Their business has fell off a cliff because of the uncertainty about trading relationships with the EU, which is their main market. Amazingly some of the workers related to that machine are also moving.

    He was saying the whole sector is in turmoil , effecting both their suppliers and competitors

  4. #694
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    That's never nice to see Pat.

    Think about coal mining and steel making. We lost hundreds of thousands jobs.

    They will rise from the ashes.

  5. #695
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    What are the economic circumstances that would see the coal industry revived to anything like it’s Heyday?

  6. #696
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    Quote Originally Posted by shaunaneto View Post
    What are the economic circumstances that would see the coal industry revived to anything like it’s Heyday?
    Magical removal of sulphur and other noxious substances to make it clean. Our coal is far dirtier than Colombian. That was the reason British steel imported , and was the death knell.

  7. #697
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    Quote Originally Posted by Oracle View Post
    Magical removal of sulphur and other noxious substances to make it clean. Our coal is far dirtier than Colombian. That was the reason British steel imported , and was the death knell.
    Yes a former company of mine was involved in calculating the reliability of a proposed desulphurization plant. They ended up coming up with the company needing two desulphurization plants to guarantee the required level of availability. They ended up importing cleaner coal instead.

  8. #698
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    Quote Originally Posted by DrPatrickBarry View Post
    Concrete example of "project real" becoming project reality last night. A good friend of mine is a senior manager at Arden Dies (http://www.ardendies.com/). Yesterday they summoned our local Tory MP and brexitieer William Wragg into the the company to supervise a CNC milling machine being loaded onto a truck to be sent to Germany. Their business has fell off a cliff because of the uncertainty about trading relationships with the EU, which is their main market. Amazingly some of the workers related to that machine are also moving.

    He was saying the whole sector is in turmoil , effecting both their suppliers and competitors
    It will work both ways Pat.

    Clearly a business that relies mostly on exporting to the EU will be hit harder than average and also businesses importing and distributing EU products such as Renault UK may also be hit.

    But there are also opportunities, as Toyota Uk should find it easier to see in the UK and could take some business off Renault.

    Meanwhile UK only businesses that currently lose contracts to German or Dutch companies will find they pick up more.

    The degree of such a re-balance depends on the type of arrangement we leave under.
    Richard Taylor
    "William Tell could take an apple off your head. Taylor could take out a processed pea."
    Sid Waddell

  9. #699
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    Any thoughts on this that’s doing the rounds today;

    “It (the USA) also wants guarantees on currency, with rules to “ensure that the UK avoids manipulating exchange rates in order to prevent effective balance of payments adjustment or to gain an unfair competitive advantage”.

  10. #700
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    The EU are not our friends: they see us as a source funds and ready made market for their stuff, otherwise an annoyance to be tamed. They have deliberately prolonged the uncertainty in order to destablize our business. They have consistently refused to talk about trade for 2 years.

    The deal is not a "deal" it is a demand for money with menaces, and in Ireland an attempt at annexation with shades of Austria 1938, otherwise a promise of talks about trade on their terms, with the backstop to prevent us leaving unless we agree to their terms. That is why we must leave. They are and have been intent on doing us harm.
    The naieve politicians voting "not to no deal" have played into their hands. The thing the EU is desparately scared about is our succeeding. And because of the massive balace of trade in our favour, EU will lose if they cannot tame us which is why they want customs union.

    There will be losers. More so because of the EU determination to destabilise. We must not yield to threats.
    But the balance of trade proves there will be more winners than losers.It is why we have growth and they do not. Much of the uncertainty is already in the car industry. Nothing to do with brexit, but is already a problem for supply chain like machine tools.
    Remainers should ask why they want to be part of a club intent on humiliation, and second recognise they can never go back. If they did, it would be retribution in spades. The veto will go. There is only one sensible strategy other than no deal leave. Which is rescind article 50 and veto everything to paralyse brussels and then talk about a deal. Our MPs are too chicken to play hard ball. They bring a toy catapult to a gun fight. EU play dirty, always have. So must we.



    Quote Originally Posted by DrPatrickBarry View Post
    Concrete example of "project real" becoming project reality last night. A good friend of mine is a senior manager at Arden Dies (http://www.ardendies.com/). Yesterday they summoned our local Tory MP and brexitieer William Wragg into the the company to supervise a CNC milling machine being loaded onto a truck to be sent to Germany. Their business has fell off a cliff because of the uncertainty about trading relationships with the EU, which is their main market. Amazingly some of the workers related to that machine are also moving.

    He was saying the whole sector is in turmoil , effecting both their suppliers and competitors
    Last edited by Oracle; 01-03-2019 at 03:35 PM.

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