Brexit

[shaunaneto]

Is anyone posting an actual socialist?

[Oracle]

Again with the opinions as facts. Many people (including many in Southern Europe) see the long-term economic benefits the EU and the Euro has brought, and that this has disproportionately benefited those in the poorest areas.

First separate facts and mood music. The inexorable progression of Target 2, the approach of ECB to issuer limits and the inability of Italy ever to pay its debts, the doom loop of zombie banks and government bonds and the massive and incurable youth unemployment are all facts. As is the fact all unions have failed for all the same reasons. Which is why I call it certainty. I just cannot say when.

Now to mood. I doubt any in Greece say what you have. Southern italy certainly does not. The problem is the growing underclass of 40 percent youth unemployment becoming unemployable young adults. They have nothing, they have nothing to lose, and no hope. The EU refused a budget that could have helped them. All fact.. And they are the reason for such as five star. I travel in some of these countries spain, portugal. The young people have no current voice but are in despair. Those that can leave will. Ultimately they will be the catalyst for "enough is enough" and the ultimate falling out of Italy and EU. If the bond markets and EU punishment beating have not done it first that is. Italy is already in recession.

[Stolly]

This FT article nails Brexit and the need for a second referendum -> https://www.ft.com/content/ebaeebcc-...e-efab61506f44

Edit: Whoops, I just realised you will need to subscribe to the FT to read it 🙄

[Graham Breeze]

Edit: Whoops, I just realised you will need to subscribe to the FT to read it ��

Whoops? Is that a professional financial term you often need to use with your clients, Stolly?

[Witton Park]

I liked this in the Telegraph by an Estonian MEP and Law Professor

"Let me offer you a recollection of when I was sent with colleagues to the Supreme Soviet to regain Estonian independence. First of all, they sent people to do that job, who believed in independence. They did not send some Party apparatchiks who believed in the USSR. We Estonians were not so stupid."

[Oracle]

This FT article nails Brexit and the need for a second referendum -> https://www.ft.com/content/ebaeebcc-...e-efab61506f44

Edit: Whoops, I just realised you will need to subscribe to the FT to read it ��

This argument is the one that nails brexit:

If remainers didnt realise how intransigent and unreasonable the EU is ,and has always been, in preferring ideology to the wellbeing of the people of the EU, they most certainly do by now. It is demonstrated beyond doubt by both the stream of insulting statements of the unelected eurocratsand and their refusal to negotiate trade in over 2 years, or indeed negotiate at all despite the inevitable harm it is causing and also the attempt to annexe northern ireland with shades of austria 1938. So now remainers know that, they will not vote for an organisation that is intent on doing us harm.

I would also hope by now , Remainers have studied the destitution their precious EU is causing by austerity forced by the impossible euro ( although remainers in my experience are very badly informed) and they will not want to belong to an organisation that treats its people so badly. The reality is EU has cherrypicked money and keeping us as a market for their goods whilst resisting all of our reasonable demands and trying to lock us democratic states in ever tighter strait jacket So hopefully remainsers will now take the rose tinted glasses off.

[Stolly]

The essence of the FT article by the way was that the outlook and motivations of leave vs remain voters was leave voted for cultural and anti immigration reasons whilst remain voted for economic reasons. So arguments since from either side never really have any traction with the opposing view. And hence why never the Twain shall meet.

Also a lot of the leave voters being retired were not, in their minds, directly effected by the economy in any event. That too with the referendum taking place right at the height of a massive refugee crisis, heightening peoples concerns right at the wrong time over immigration

All the same the article goes on to say that a second referendum is absolutely the best next step before any Brexit gets finalised due to the growing stats and polls that say that remain would comfortably win this time. In other words the “will of the people” might well be different now and, in pushing through Brexit based on the will of the people nearly three years ago, the government would quite probably be going against “the will of the people” 😊

[Graham Breeze]

The essence of the FT article by the way was that the outlook and motivations of leave vs remain voters was leave voted for cultural and anti immigration reasons whilst remain voted for economic reasons. So arguments since from either side never really have any traction with the opposing view. And hence why never the Twain shall meet.

Also a lot of the leave voters being retired were not, in their minds, directly effected by the economy in any event. That too with the referendum taking place right at the height of a massive refugee crisis, heightening peoples concerns right at the wrong time over immigration

All the same the article goes on to say that a second referendum is absolutely the best next step before any Brexit gets finalised due to the growing stats and polls that say that remain would comfortably win this time. In other words the “will of the people” might well be different now and, in pushing through Brexit based on the will of the people nearly three years ago, the government would quite probably be going against “the will of the people” ��

Indeed.

Throughout this sorry saga I have been reminded of a book I knew in a previous existence called The Abilene Paradox(Professor Jerry Harvey, George Washington University) which informed some of my organization development work.

In essence the book is a parable about a group of people who agree to do something (drive a hundred miles on dusty roads to Abilene, Texas in a non-air-conditioned car in the heat of the summer sun) that no individual actually wishes to do but complies because they all think the others wish to make the trip. Ie managers often agree to act in a way contradictory to what they actually want to do or believe is right based on what they think others want to do.

The book was published in 1988. I still have it.

In the lemming myth I wonder if the odd lemming rushing towards the cliff edge ever said "are we sure this is the right way, fellas?"

[Oracle]

Which is clearly written by a remainer: I voted brexit for economic reasons. Any vote for EU can only be cultural. It is causing devastation to many countries in economic terms. Soros is saying today what has been said by all serious economists for many years. Greece can never recover in the euro. Ditto italy. Ditto portugal.Only emotive arguments exist for remain ( or being German so being the beneficiary helps). The economics says the euro and therefore EU is screwed, and that is giving rise to populist movements and immigration.

That points at one of the big problems with the debate, which is false comment or presumption on motivations of others. I have yet to meet a brexiter that paid any heed to 350 million on a bus. Many brexiters take heed of the opportunity to be the new singapore. The real value of independence in trade deals is way bigger than that. The problem is you have to be an entrepreneur to throw in the safe day job and take the risk , and then the whole world attacks you for doing so much better. The nay sayers and remainers only look at the salary in the twilight industry you may have lost to state it is too much risk. But if it is failing anyway what is the risk? EU is in its twilight years.Our MPs are social security minded.

The essence of the FT article by the way was that the outlook and motivations of leave vs remain voters was leave voted for cultural and anti immigration reasons whilst remain voted for economic reasons. So arguments since from either side never really have any traction with the opposing view. And hence why never the Twain shall meet.

Also a lot of the leave voters being retired were not, in their minds, directly effected by the economy in any event. That too with the referendum taking place right at the height of a massive refugee crisis, heightening peoples concerns right at the wrong time over immigration

All the same the article goes on to say that a second referendum is absolutely the best next step before any Brexit gets finalised due to the growing stats and polls that say that remain would comfortably win this time. In other words the “will of the people” might well be different now and, in pushing through Brexit based on the will of the people nearly three years ago, the government would quite probably be going against “the will of the people” ��

[Witton Park]

whilst remain voted for economic reasons. ��

I voted leave for economic reasons. The EU has hardly been an economic success. Not just my opinion but some experts such as Mr Stiglitz as we've mentioned earlier on the thread.