Brexit

[Oracle]

You cannot seriously hope a terrorist loving marxist thug intent on total financial destruction gets into power?
I hope the electorate are not so stupid: But just in case I have overestimated their intellect, I like many companies have taken precautions by taking most assets offshore. By the time Mcdonnel says capital controls there will be little left to seize except the savings of pensioners. These marxist idiots always forget that the wealthy are mobile. Ask Hollande who was the last one to be quite that stupid. He ended up reversing his tax increases. Like Callaghan Corbyn would end up cap in hand to the IMF when he runs out of other peoples money. Then there would be real austerity. The inevitable result of authoritarian socialism, just like Venezuela.

Haha to all the Boris Johnston for pm talk. The conservatives urgently need to be looking outwards not in - their own tribe might mostly like Boris (although a few on the left of the party have said they’d leave if he became leader) but any voter at all sitting on the fence in the middle won’t. All the remainers wouldnt go near him with a barge pole. In the mix that’s an awfully big chunk of middle class people, the very sort that have helped the conservatives get into power in the past. From my point of view Boris would be brilliant - the conservatives will be doomed ��

[Daletownrunner]

You cannot seriously hope a terrorist loving marxist thug intent on total financial destruction gets into power?
I hope the electorate are not so stupid: But just in case I have overestimated their intellect, I like many companies have taken precautions by taking most assets offshore. By the time Mcdonnel says capital controls there will be little left to seize except the savings of pensioners. These marxist idiots always forget that the wealthy are mobile. Ask Hollande who was the last one to be quite that stupid. He ended up reversing his tax increases. Like Callaghan Corbyn would end up cap in hand to the IMF when he runs out of other peoples money. Then there would be real austerity. The inevitable result of authoritarian socialism, just like Venezuela.

Are you doing any running at all this weekend Oracle??

[Oracle]

Are you doing any running at all this weekend Oracle??

Struggling with injury on that front at present. It is why I waste time here. Wouldnt see me for dust if I could spend days on the fells.
Nobody picked up on why I thought Davis should be leader. He walked the BG last summer. That must get the fellrunner vote!

[Daletownrunner]

Struggling with injury on that front at present. It is why I waste time here. Wouldnt see me for dust if I could spend days on the fells.
Nobody picked up on why I thought Davis should be leader. He walked the BG last summer. That must get the fellrunner vote!

No worries, I spent a good 10 minutes watching lambs racing each other across the fields on my run last night, takes your mind right off this Brexit lark, hope that injury sorts itself

[Witton Park]

I do not see why May should Go: it isnt her deal, it is the EUs nonsense and she is not obliged to stand down under party rules. Her offer was conditional on the deal accepted.

In any confidence vote I expect the indy group to support her: It is far too early for them to hope they can get reelected at a GE. They will want to bide their time. Since Corbyn is a republican terrorist loving thug, no way will DUP ever vote with him, indeed will vote with May. A general election solves nothing for brexit except in labour office wishful thinking. I can imagine the jewish community will also have their say against corbyn.

It has been under May's direction we started on the wrong track and carried on being on the wrong track from the start.
The only thing she got right was delaying article 50 for 9 months.

The sequencing was wrong. Even today in the debate that has been brought up.

The December protocol, which she signed off at the end of 2017 so she could claim progress.

The White Paper at Chequers.

The "I'm not going to hold a General Election" then to call one, with a manifesto put together by her and her team, without cabinet involvement.

She turned a 10% poll lead, replicated in the May local elections (11%) in to a meagre 2% and a loss of 13 seats, loss of a Commons majority in just a month.

The worst General Election campaign I can recall.

She has been a disaster in more than one way.

This is not now a Commons issue. It is a Tory party issue. She will be obliged to go as party leader. She has promised to go if the WA agreement passes.
It won't.
But how ludicrous would it be to stay on if it fails?

[Stolly]

So a general election could be a strong probability now but some interesting poll predictions if that were to happen from Curtice:

Conservatives 307 seats
Labour 256
SNP/PC 48
Lib Dem 20
Green 1
DUP 10
Independent 1
Sinn Fein 7

Coalition government and conservatives out 🤔

Edit: obviously this excludes the new TIG aka Change U.K. but I doubt they will necessarily do the conservatives any favours in the round

[Stolly]

So a general election could be a strong probability now but some interesting poll predictions if that were to happen from Curtice:

Conservatives 307 seats
Labour 256
SNP/PC 48
Lib Dem 20
Green 1
DUP 10
Independent 1
Sinn Fein 7

Coalition government and conservatives out 🤔

Edit: obviously this excludes the new TIG aka Change U.K. but I doubt they will necessarily do the conservatives any favours in the round

Or referendum version 2?

Or revoke article 50 completely?

[Oracle]

Or referendum version 2?

Or revoke article 50 completely?

Or do what was actually mandated in a referendum and a pledge in a general election winning manifesto. Leave. No deal better than bad deal. The one thing they have not tried, is the thing the electorate asked them to do.

A general election is nothing but opportunism. Corbyns strategy got voted down just as heavily as an indicative vote. He has nothing to offer.

I will agree on only one thing. Revoking A50 and keeping the Veto is far better than other worse forms of remain like "norway" or "customs union" . None of them including corbyns non strategy is brexit. But having repealed it then we should be as awkard as possible voting down all budgets until EU negotiate which they have not done until now.

[Witton Park]

So a general election could be a strong probability now but some interesting poll predictions if that were to happen from Curtice:

Conservatives 307 seats
Labour 256
SNP/PC 48
Lib Dem 20
Green 1
DUP 10
Independent 1
Sinn Fein 7

Coalition government and conservatives out ��

Edit: obviously this excludes the new TIG aka Change U.K. but I doubt they will necessarily do the conservatives any favours in the round

There are a lot of variables to come in to play before this.

If the Tories went now with May, this might be correct, although I suspect the LibDems are a little over-aged.

But I don't think the Tories will go with May. I will be quite surprised if she doesn't announce her departure, staying on until the new leader is in place.

Johnson as leader would in my opinion add 30-50 seats to the above.

Faced with a clean Brexit Tory party, where do Labour go? I think they would implode in many of the Northern towns.

All guesswork I accept that Stolly, but that's how I read it.

A leadership contest could be done in 2-3 weeks.

A General Election by early June.

Ask EU for extension until late June.

[Stolly]

That’s really interesting as I’d put Johnson down as a guaranteed vote loser. A new Farage party could also jump into the mix and plunder votes from the tories (and labour) - they wouldn’t neccessarily win any seats but just upset the vote balance