Coronavirus

[Stagger]

Shut all colleges is my suggestion.

[Oracle]

Shut all colleges is my suggestion.

Despite scientific advice given to government?
IMHO It’s time to let the government make what are hard choices.

[JohnK]

EVEREST is closed :- https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-a9399806.html

[molehill]

Ultimately there is a lot of computer modelling and number crunching on how to best tackle this virus and feeding into this must be masses of data, such as what the NHS can handle at any given time, how to keep utilities flowing and the country functioning.
Not every country has the same approach, which is hardly surprising as every country is different in so many ways. I think criticism should come after the event, once we know what works best or doesn't work - though not sure how that will be measured.
Personally I think they are working on most of us catching it and once a certain percentage have been infected the virus will start to slow up due to lack of available hosts, but they want us to catch it at a rate we are not overwhelmed by a peak. But just my guess.
Till it's over I put my faith in the experts and hope for the best.

[Stagger]

I put my faith in no one, because I don't trust any of them.

One life, live it to the max.

[PeteS]

Herd immunity needs at least 60% of the population to be immune either through vaccination or have developed immunity through being infected. The first option is obviously out so if this is the government's preferred option, we are looking at a seriously large fatality rate unless other measures or brought in soon. BTW Successful HI is usually measured at 80-90%....

[Mike T]

Three possibilities: we wipe it out - too late; it wipes us out - no; or herd immunity. Herd Immunity is inevitable, like the tide, you cannot plan for/against it, but you can plan around it. We will reach a balance between spread and resistance, with close to zero spread once either everyone has had it - and that will happen, more or less - or when we get a vaccine. I think that like flu it will circulate in the community from now on, and we will all be offered an annual vaccination against it once one becomes available. Despite the fact that we are all going to get it, it is worth slowing it down, to flatten the NHS demand curve, and to give people - and you and me - a better chance of getting into ITU if need be. Talk of rationing care is a bit naive - care has been rationed in health systems for decades. Having said that it may be rather more overt, and the age cut off may end up being lower than we would like.

[Oracle]

What do people make of the infection figures?

Seems to me there is no mechanism for officially noticing other than cases serious enough to need medical attention which may only be small minority:

Also rightly or wrongly self employed and small businesses simply cannot shutdown and still afford to eat. It’s a hard world.

I’m hearing lots of people coughing, saying it’s not CV, but with clear chest problems, but no obvious signs of fever.

I’ve also read that only very low grade fever necessarily accompanies it, which is annoying rather than debilitating.

So as conjecture I’d say that the current infection rate might be far higher than anyone is claiming and therefore the death rate may be far lower than is assumed.

[Witton Park]

Herd immunity needs at least 60% of the population to be immune either through vaccination or have developed immunity through being infected. The first option is obviously out so if this is the government's preferred option, we are looking at a seriously large fatality rate unless other measures or brought in soon. BTW Successful HI is usually measured at 80-90%....

I've seen some interesting stuff on this. It seems to depend on the nature of the beast with measles needing 94% because it is highly contagious.
This one looks more in the 50-60% bracket, but even at lower levels there will be a blocking effect and if we can get through this first wave, there is a chance that vaccination will be available for a second wave and smother it out.

[Witton Park]

What do people make of the infection figures?

Seems to me there is no mechanism for officially noticing other than cases serious enough to need medical attention which may only be small minority:

Also rightly or wrongly self employed and small businesses simply cannot shutdown and still afford to eat. It’s a hard world.

I’m hearing lots of people coughing, saying it’s not CV, but with clear chest problems, but no obvious signs of fever.

I’ve also read that only very low grade fever necessarily accompanies it, which is annoying rather than debilitating.

So as conjecture I’d say that the current infection rate might be far higher than anyone is claiming and therefore the death rate may be far lower than is assumed.

Yes I agree it will be under reported now. Most people will sit tight if they feel symptoms and we'll never know if they've had it or not.

Interesting yesterday.

English Schools XC at Sefton Park - must have been 10,000 from all over England.

Local parkruns had more than normal numbers and I nipped in to town and it was busy on the car parks.

Uttoxeter and Kempton races went ahead covered on ITV4.

So we may take care of this ourselves just by behaving normally with a little care, and keeping the vulnerable out of the way.