Coronavirus

[Travs]

Just done a search for Penrith on bookings.com for next weekend 3 nights. Got a few options came up.

Contrasting info seems to coming out of the Lake District...

Keswick appears to be opening up... the market is back on, plenty of shops appear to be open or opening. My regular b&b in Keswick have allowed me to make a booking in mid-July (although not taken a deposit as they can't 100% guarantee being open yet).

However i had a booking at a b&b "Back O' Skiddaw" for same weekend which i sadly had to cancel, as they couldn't give me any indication of their likely opening date, and also stated they might not be comfortable opening anyway (the owners were both over 70 so understandable). They were giving the line about "outsiders" passing the virus on via stiles, footpaths, etc... but the cancellation was on friendly terms and i hope to stay there another time when they are happier to accept guests.

[Mike T]

My post was about surveys, not testing.

I have been taking part in an ongoing non testing survey - once a week I get sent an email asking about symptoms and behaviour. It is reasonably detailed, takes about 6-8 minutes to do - you are just starting to flag when it comes to an end.
Lots think they have had it - the random testing surveys show that the actual number is far fewer.

[Oracle]

I have been taking part in an ongoing non testing survey - once a week I get sent an email asking about symptoms and behaviour. It is reasonably detailed, takes about 6-8 minutes to do - you are just starting to flag when it comes to an end.
Lots think they have had it - the random testing surveys show that the actual number is far fewer.

Or - more likely - the tests don’t work, because they were never validated properly.
Roche’s test is a lot worse than Abbott’s, but even Abbott’s has plenty of false negatives. The 99 is utter B/S
It’s what happens when validation is rushed.

Lasting T cell immunity is also a competing theory - also for why antibodies are not developed - which may also have given cross immunity to previous SARS and related conditions.

I would wager that WHO claiming that some are able to get a second dose of COVID is the result of false positives first time round, then they got the real thing.

[Graham Breeze]

Or - more likely - the tests don’t work, because they were never validated properly.
Roche’s test is a lot worse than Abbott’s, but even Abbott’s has plenty of false negatives. The 99 is utter B/S
It’s what happens when validation is rushed.

Lasting T cell immunity is also a competing theory - also for why antibodies are not developed - which may also have given cross immunity to previous SARS and related conditions.

I would wager that WHO claiming that some are able to get a second dose of COVID is the result of false positives first time round, then they got the real thing.

Mmmh anyway Oracle... I had the impression that your sojourn in Portugal meant we would be denied your incisive and forensic examination of such matters and yet and yet...

Can it be that you really miss us all back home in dear old blighty?

[CL]

I don't totally agree with the above. Although i have contributed to this thread, it's p**sing in the wind really, people have formed their views over a lifetime, and arguing the toss on here (or jumping on the bandwagon of agreement) is hardly likely to make a difference to anybody's opinion.

I heartily disagree with elements of this thread, from both sides of the political spectrum. But i frankly can't be arsed to get into a prolonged argument. That does not mean i agree/disagree with the points made.

Without wanting to have a pop at you either... you have signed up and made 10 posts, of which a huge majority have been politically related. I know there's not a lot happening in the fellrunning world but surely you can find something else to talk about...!!

But Travs I don't want Fellbeast to talk about anything else.

[CL]

As you were Fellbeast.

[CL]

But my dear CL, the greatest of men often have feet of clay - it is integral to what makes them great.

If you wish to be led by the pure and holy then I suggest you join a convent.

Which one are you in Graham?

P.S Can you re-start the film review page please?

[CL]

It seems you create a fiction Boris to suit your opinion, like the press,
The real one is a social liberal, economically conservative free marketer, left of David Cameron, and a staunch opponent of what the EU has become. Indeed he was an (anti) EU correspondent for years.
So No doubt about his opinions. Other than fiction in a hostile press.


He is also deep thinker. IÂ’ve spent time taking to him,
He is a good at choosing able managers and let them get on with it, which is how he became the most popular London mayor. Also a good leader who radiates enthusiasm.


As for your criticism of perceived indecision: dobbins law applies to you.
Everything is easy for him that does not have to do it

He is being given polar opposite advice by medics who are more interested in showboating in press than helping with covid, and unions intent on settling old score. Some countries shut down earlier , some shut down later. Some shut down not at all, like Sweden, so your comparison with Italy is one in Many. Portugal was far more lax than U.K. so theories on what matters are guesswork.

Boris is in uncharted waters.
Give him a break.

He has three problems. 1/ managing a health crisis 2/ avoiding a greater cost of life in economic destruction 3/ surviving an army of critics , none of whom have ever had to manage such a crisis, so all of their criticisms are cheapshots.

In short :If you believe you could have done better it is based on hindsight or arrogance.

Fair point Oracle I would not want to be in his shoes at the moment. But recently he has shown a lack of leadership and decisiveness. It is his job not the scientist's job to make political decisions but recently he has been in his bunker paralysed by doubt.

Then the Cummings affair. He should have been sacked by Boris. Unfortunately the damage has been done by that decision but we'll have to wait and see whether he can recover.

[Mike T]

Or - more likely - the tests don’t work, because they were never validated properly.
Roche’s test is a lot worse than Abbott’s, but even Abbott’s has plenty of false negatives. The 99 is utter B/S
It’s what happens when validation is rushed.

Lasting T cell immunity is also a competing theory - also for why antibodies are not developed - which may also have given cross immunity to previous SARS and related conditions.

I would wager that WHO claiming that some are able to get a second dose of COVID is the result of false positives first time round, then they got the real thing.

Even if the false negative rate is 50%, rather than up to 30%, we are still only looking at around 10% having had it.
A study I saw found only one person in a group with positive PCR who did not test positive for antibodies - I cannot remember the actual numbers. Not all antibodies, even though present, will be picked up by the test. We make a spectrum of antibodies against the same antigen, partly dependent on our HLA type.

[Graham Breeze]

P.S Can you re-start the film review page please?

Alas and alack... I have not been allowed in a cinema for aeons - not since The Lighthouse which I thought was a film to be pleased you had seen, but not one one would rush back to review.

Anyway currently working through The Byrds Complete Columbia Albums Collection (11 albums - expanded to include alternate takes**) to pass the time.

**(The Byrds originally recorded their Fifth Dimension album, including their masterpiece Eight Miles High, at RCA studios but Columbia refused to issue the tracks because they had an agreement with the unions that Columbia would not release music not recorded with Columbia musicians so the Byrds had to re-record the entire album at Columbia. The Byrds, in particular (the obnoxious) David Crosby, always maintained that the RCA tracks were better and the expanded album, belatedly, includes both versions of Eight Miles High.)