Quote Originally Posted by Mark G View Post
I recall someone being interviewed at an early stage in all this who said one of two things would probably happen. 1) The virus would mutate and become even more serious,or 2) It would mutate and become less serious.
I wonder if in light of much reduced hospital admissions and deaths the 2nd is happening? I appreciate that many of the new cases involve younger people but that could be down to easing in lockdown or a change in the virus?

From my reading, if you allow for the age of those currently being infected, there is not a lot left to explain. Risk of infection/death at 65 is 10 times that at 45, which is 10 times that at 25. And the risk at 85 is 10 times that at 65. So a very steep increase with age. Those at high risk of exposure and of dying died early; we still have plenty who are at high risk of dying, but they are mainly able to socially distance/isolate/quarantine, so the new cases are much younger than before. There has also been some improvement in treatment - delaying ventilation, steroids, avoiding hydroxychlororquine. There is a mutation that some think is more infectious but less lethal, but it has been around for months, and it is not taking over from the other variant. The different age profile seems to be the main thing.