Don't know where the 1.7 comes from Mike. It's been given as 1.1 - 1.3 and I wouldn't mind seeing their maths.Originally Posted by Mike T
Richard Taylor
"William Tell could take an apple off your head. Taylor could take out a processed pea."
Sid Waddell
The evidence, for those who are incapable of reading tweets in full.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EhpY76bX...pg&name=medium
Last edited by Dave_Mole; 11-09-2020 at 08:10 PM.
also:
"Our early data, as we exited lockdown, demonstrate the high level of effectiveness of stringent social distancing in reducing transmission of the virus, with prevalence rates decreasing by 75% over a 3 month period to early August. However, since then prevalence has increased, perhaps reflecting holiday travel, return to work, or a more general increase in the number and transmission potential of social interactions. While in England there has yet to be notable increases in hospitalisations or deaths associated with the resurgence in infection, this is not the case in other European countries, such as France and Spain, where hospitalisations are increasing substantially".
Last edited by Dave_Mole; 11-09-2020 at 08:11 PM. Reason: spacing
Don't worry about a thing, cause every little thing gunner be alright.
I think he's definitely a worrier.
I know it's only MSM but the rate seems to be a little lower than 1.7
https://metro.co.uk/2020/09/11/r-rat...s-uk-13257703/
Hey but probably Imperial is the way to go - they have such a good track record.
How are you doing Trev? A nice little Rioja tonight for me. Out of Single Malt at the moment. I tried some Suntory recently which isn't a malt or single. It hasn't the complexity of Scotch, but it certainly has a magical clarity. I was quite impressed. Reminded me of the Penderyn I had a while back.
Richard Taylor
"William Tell could take an apple off your head. Taylor could take out a processed pea."
Sid Waddell
I've never read any part of a tweet, never mind one in full!
Visibility good except in Hill Fog
You're not the one asking for the maths, when it's right in front of you....then ignoring it. Because, apparemtly, Metro is a better source of information than the "largest, most significant piece of research looking at how the virus is spreading across the country" carried out by a team of scientists, clinicians and researchers at Imperial College London, Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust and Ipsos MORI.
Garbage in Garbage out.
Imperial have form.
There are huge question marks over the accuracy of the PCR tests.
The calculation and use of R is problematic the later in to a pandemic ut is as small pockets distort.
There are other scientific opinions out there such as this that Professor Heneghan as recommended.
Richard Taylor
"William Tell could take an apple off your head. Taylor could take out a processed pea."
Sid Waddell
yet here you are, quibbling about it.The calculation and use of R is problematic the later in to a pandemic ut is as small pockets distort.
If you bother to read the report you'll see this:
". A throat and noseswab is estimated to have 70% to 80% sensitivity, so we are likely to have underestimated true prevalence, although, this would not be expected to have affected trendanalysis or estimation of the R value"
Last edited by Dave_Mole; 12-09-2020 at 08:47 AM.
