Coronavirus

[Fellbeast]

But it's not just the over 60s, is it?
What about lecturers and staff in the universities? What about staff in public venues? All of whom can either suffer from or spread the virus and have no was of isolating?
What happens when students go home at Christmas, taking infection with them?

Yeah and also the high chance that they will infect crucial services, the most obvious being the NHS. We've been round this house before

[Dave_Mole]

We've been round this house before

sorry: I'm being tiresome and boring

[Muddy Retriever]

I doubt that this will fly to be honest. Pub and alcohol and students back at uni are now the big covid fire starters and that's where the next changes are likely to fall. So a similar limited period pub/restaurant closure in hot spots, like Scotland, and maybe some sort of students kept on campus (but all campus facilities and student's unions left open) segregation period?

The students thing is really difficult to get right but I bet the track and trace data is pointing massively in the direction of pubs and drinking as being one of the main causes of covid spreading. Thats what Nicola Sturgeon implied in Scotland and that could easily be the Manchester, Liverpool and Newcastle etc

In September, hospitality, which obviously includes pub was supposed to be responsible for only 5% of new covid infections. I haven't seen any more recent figures however.

I would agree that students back at university is the main driver behind the surge in a number of cities. You only have to look at the areas with the highest infections at the moment to see that. I suspect closing the pubs will just mean students will have house/halls of residence parties instead.

[Fellbeast]

In September, hospitality, which obviously includes pub was supposed to be responsible for only 5% of new covid infections. I haven't seen any more recent figures however.

Hot off the press, it looks like they're saying its 30% now


https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/stat...258051072?s=20

[Muddy Retriever]

Hot off the press, it looks like they're saying its 30% now


https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/stat...258051072?s=20

If that's correct then fair enough.

But there are still a few things the don't add up for me.

1. Why has it suddenly increased so much? Apparently in the week before the 10pm curfew was announced pubs and restaurants were only contributing 3% of new cases, down from 5% the week before. Perhaps it's the daft curfew rule itself, which has led to lots of people being chucked out at the same time!
2. Why is the increase in infections not more uniform across the country? Pubs are everywhere after all.
3. Why did Sheffield's new cases triple in a week? They've had their pubs open for a few months so why such an impact now?

[Fellbeast]

If that's correct then fair enough.

But there are still a few things the don't add up for me.

1. Why has it suddenly increased so much? Apparently in the week before the 10pm curfew was announced pubs and restaurants were only contributing 3% of new cases, down from 5% the week before. Perhaps it's the daft curfew rule itself, which has led to lots of people being chucked out at the same time!
2. Why is the increase in infections not more uniform across the country? Pubs are everywhere after all.
3. Why did Sheffield's new cases triple in a week? They've had their pubs open for a few months so why such an impact now?

Simple answer, I haven't a clue

Maybe part of the answer is that the national lockdown, both going in and coming out, was too London centric? There were perhaps relatively few real cases in the north in February/March but, by the time lockdown was ending, covid was still knocking around, albeit in small pockets. For sure by then there were a lot of the public really thirsty for the pub, with a fair few of them I'm guessing (up north) never really experiencing much in the way of friends and family getting covid in the first place. So you then have a bunch of drinkers, many a bit too relaxed and/or sceptical about covid, with not much of the wider population (up north) having had exposure to covid, all starting to socialise and lose social distancing after a few. And then the fast accelerating compound interest of covid takes over?

[Dave_Mole]

Simple answer, I haven't a clue

Maybe part of the answer is that the national lockdown, both going in and coming out, was too London centric? There were perhaps relatively few real cases in the north in February/March but, by the time lockdown was ending, covid was still knocking around, albeit in small pockets. For sure by then there were a lot of the public really thirsty for the pub, with a fair few of them I'm guessing (up north) never really experiencing much in the way of friends and family getting covid in the first place. So you then have a bunch of drinkers, many a bit too relaxed and/or sceptical about covid, with not much of the wider population (up north) having had exposure to covid, all starting to socialise and lose social distancing after a few. And then the fast accelerating compound interest of covid takes over?

I think it's at least partially to do with people not self-isolating or taking precautions like social distancing etc. But it is weirdly patchy. Lack of a decent track and trace system doesn't help, but even if fully working, would still rely on the honesty and intergrity of those asked to self isolate doing so. Certainly not helped by Trump's latest shenanigans.

Apparently we're 10 days away from ICUs reaching a critical stage.....

[Muddy Retriever]

Apparently we're 10 days away from ICUs reaching a critical stage.....

10 days surprises me.

I'm not saying the current figures and increase aren't a cause for concern but:

- Number of people in hospital in England is currently 2,944. The peak was 17,172 on 12th April.
- Number of people on ventilators in England is currently 376. The peak was 2,881 also on 12th April.

Even if those figures were to double in 10 days, (which would be faster than at the moment) they would still be much less than earlier in the year.

[anthonykay]

I was out running in the Outwoods today, and encountered a group of at least 50 primary school children with about 6 adults. No social distancing . . . but I was really pleased to see young children being taken out for healthy activities, recognising that they present very low Covid-related risks.

[noel]

If that's correct then fair enough.

But there are still a few things the don't add up for me...

You're right. It seems very strange that rates in London are so low. They have lots of the things that people have previously said were driving the rates in other places: students, areas with lots of large extended families, deprived high-density areas...

Maybe you're right FB: people in Northern cities weren't affected much before, and too many people are blasé about it now.