Quote Originally Posted by Witton Park View Post
Winter Scenarios 2.jpg

If you check out the chart Mike the 4 "scenarios" set out have mid range peaks of 1800 to 4000 a day.

The 4000 one is the one that had us being at over a 1000 a day now which has apparently been revised on 28/10 to about a 1000 a day peak.

Absolutely that is still high - if you think there is any mileage in it.

But why present the chart showing the highest and most outlandish scenario when it had already shown itself to be out by a huge margin, and been revised?

What little credibility they have left is being lost every time they do something like this.

Based on the 4 scenarios, Richard on Twitter has started tracking against them.

https://www3.royalmail.com/track-your-item#/

The reality is already tracking below the 3 worst of the 4 scenarios and with cases now flattening or dropping in England, Northern Ireland and Scotland based on 7 day average, we should not be seeing rising deaths and pressure should reduce regardless of the measures coming in on Thursday.
I suspect the lower of the 4 scenarios will also start to diverge from the actual figures in the next 1-2 weeks.

Liverpool dropping, Manchester dropping, Rossendale's figures dropping dramatically and even Blackburn is.
The peaks are clearly higher than what each curve predicted for the 1st of November. I would hope all turn out to be be overestimates as of course we are acting to change the outcome. The projection that people mocked last time turned out to be pretty accurate. People under estimate exponential growth, and many think an R of 1.1, because it is lower than it was, is "good".