Stagger just leaving the ‘democracy’ what are you hoping to get out of Brexit? What are you and the country going to gain?
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Stagger just leaving the ‘democracy’ what are you hoping to get out of Brexit? What are you and the country going to gain?
Bloody experts, we have had too much from experts during the referendum. The don't know what they are on about and it is impossible to predict what will happen in the future.Quote:
Originally Posted by Muddy Retriever
Unless, I suppose, they are saying what you want to hear.
But ignoring all that.
I read Irish newspapers and listen to the RTE News programs all the time. Why am I never hearing anything on them that the Euro has been a complete disaster and has in fact failed?
Moved it back to the correct thread:rolleyes:
Have you actually read the article? It is an analysis of what has actually happened not an attempt to make GDP forecasts. The former tend generally to be rather more reliable than the latter I find.Quote:
Originally Posted by DrPatrickBarry
I don't know Doctor P, everybody else seems to have heard of the euro crisis. Well ok maybe not Stolly. Maybe you should broaden the outlets you get your news from.Quote:
But ignoring all that.
I read Irish newspapers and listen to the RTE News programs all the time. Why am I never hearing anything on them that the Euro has been a complete disaster and has in fact failed?
Maybe that’s a question for the Barclay Brothers and Murdoch not Dr P.
Stunning answer, I love it.Quote:
Originally Posted by shaunaneto
I have to admit I am a bit of a hypocrite. I have no sympathy for some of these jihadist who claim they were brainwashed and now regret their ways and want to come home. But decades of hostile coverage of Europe, by some sections of the media from bendy bananas to whatever, has poisoned the EU in the minds of a large percentage of the UK population.
They, however, do have some justification to their views.
Just for you Dr P and shaunaneto, here's one from the Guardian.
https://www.theguardian.com/business...oseph-stiglitz
Note the comparison of US growth to eurozone as well.
That's the problem isn't it; Brexiteers just don't know what will really happen; they have their ideals none of which are set in stone. In my humble opinion I see this Country easily degenerating into a complete mess both morally, socially and environmentally if it crashes out.Quote:
Originally Posted by Derby Tup
I did actually Google Joseph Stiglitz yesterday, when you first mentioned his article. He has had it in for the EU/Euro project for a long time.Quote:
Originally Posted by Muddy Retriever
What he says is undoubtedly true for the measures he is choosing, but as I said in another post it is a much more comlex picture that those pure numbers.
I am no expert, so some of these figures, I just can't be bothered to get to understand. But the one sentence answer is: "the EU is a better place to live for a much bigger percentage of the population". I would guess that this a more important statistics for most people.
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2015/...orming-the-us/
Not only is Europe producing an admirable and competitive growth model, it is, by design and conviction, deploying the wealth generated in economic solidarity with its broader population, not just for the top 1%. That is Europe’s greatest economic accomplishment, its greatest competitive advantage and the key to its outperformance.
Kalin Anev Janse Secretary General, European Stability Mechanism (ESM)
With that title it will be a bias article, but it is a counter argument to Joseph Stiglitz
Just been reading the comments below that article, yet another US based economist getting the knife into Europe, you would almost think they were getting scared.Quote:
Originally Posted by Muddy Retriever
You are right Andy. We don't know what will happen. Even if we have a sound plan for what could happen (which I appreciate some don't buy in to) we can always rely on our politicians to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory and mess it up.Quote:
Originally Posted by wharfeego
You need to look no further than Mrs May's Withdrawal Agreement, which has managed to unite Leavers and Remainers against it.
But is that any different to having been in? We had the ERM debacle, we handed back half the rebate (and other countries have similar mechanisms so it wasn't unique)for reform of CAP and CFP and got nothing.
Our Governments are capable of creative cock-ups and even misconduct in office whether we are in or out.
Morally, socially and environmentally I'd say we are in a mess anyway - and we are in. I don't think in or out makes any difference to that.
The Euro is dead. Those interested in why should read Werner Sim and look at the history of currency union failures. Be wary of Stiglitz. Nobel laureate he may be, but he missed the inevitability of 2007 and was only wise after the event.Quote:
Originally Posted by DrPatrickBarry
Study wages , youth unemployment , tax bands ( even on minimum wage) and crippling debt in Portugal ,greece, Italy, which shows they are condemned to eternal misery , and Germany doesn't care which will ultimately be Brussels undoing. Remainers should study just how nasty their EU is.
Catastrophic capital flows out of Italy and ECB issuer limits hitting buffers now show the game is up. It is just a matter of when. All the Italian banks are built on quick sand and will take other banks down with them.
Germany refusing Macrons Eurobonds to spread the pain ( which Stiglitz mentions) is playing King Canute (and anyway is in fundamental breach of the treaties) German taxpayers are on the hook anyway for target default when Italy crashes, but nobody has told them yet. Only Germany leaving could save the Euro. The EU will collapse when the euro does.
What has where he is based got to do with it? Looking into Stiglitz's background he doesn't seem to have any stake in the game. That's of course quite unlike your source who is the Secretary General of a euro institution. I don't really think you're in any position to throw stones.Quote:
Originally Posted by DrPatrickBarry
When you say getting scared, I don't know what you mean. Scared of what? The eurozone is hardly in an enviable position and it's quite revealing that no other trade block around the world is seeking to copy it.
I've referenced a few links now, which explain the fundamental flaws in the euro's design. However rather than engaging with the arguments that have been made you seek only to undermine the source without any justification as far as I can see. Closing your eyes and kidding yourself that there isn't a problem won't make it go away.
Concrete example of "project real" becoming project reality last night. A good friend of mine is a senior manager at Arden Dies (http://www.ardendies.com/). Yesterday they summoned our local Tory MP and brexitieer William Wragg into the the company to supervise a CNC milling machine being loaded onto a truck to be sent to Germany. Their business has fell off a cliff because of the uncertainty about trading relationships with the EU, which is their main market. Amazingly some of the workers related to that machine are also moving.
He was saying the whole sector is in turmoil , effecting both their suppliers and competitors
That's never nice to see Pat.
Think about coal mining and steel making. We lost hundreds of thousands jobs.
They will rise from the ashes.
What are the economic circumstances that would see the coal industry revived to anything like it’s Heyday?
Magical removal of sulphur and other noxious substances to make it clean. Our coal is far dirtier than Colombian. That was the reason British steel imported , and was the death knell.Quote:
Originally Posted by shaunaneto
Yes a former company of mine was involved in calculating the reliability of a proposed desulphurization plant. They ended up coming up with the company needing two desulphurization plants to guarantee the required level of availability. They ended up importing cleaner coal instead.Quote:
Originally Posted by Oracle
It will work both ways Pat.Quote:
Originally Posted by DrPatrickBarry
Clearly a business that relies mostly on exporting to the EU will be hit harder than average and also businesses importing and distributing EU products such as Renault UK may also be hit.
But there are also opportunities, as Toyota Uk should find it easier to see in the UK and could take some business off Renault.
Meanwhile UK only businesses that currently lose contracts to German or Dutch companies will find they pick up more.
The degree of such a re-balance depends on the type of arrangement we leave under.
Any thoughts on this that’s doing the rounds today;
“It (the USA) also wants guarantees on currency, with rules to “ensure that the UK avoids manipulating exchange rates in order to prevent effective balance of payments adjustment or to gain an unfair competitive advantage”.
The EU are not our friends: they see us as a source funds and ready made market for their stuff, otherwise an annoyance to be tamed. They have deliberately prolonged the uncertainty in order to destablize our business. They have consistently refused to talk about trade for 2 years.
The deal is not a "deal" it is a demand for money with menaces, and in Ireland an attempt at annexation with shades of Austria 1938, otherwise a promise of talks about trade on their terms, with the backstop to prevent us leaving unless we agree to their terms. That is why we must leave. They are and have been intent on doing us harm.
The naieve politicians voting "not to no deal" have played into their hands. The thing the EU is desparately scared about is our succeeding. And because of the massive balace of trade in our favour, EU will lose if they cannot tame us which is why they want customs union.
There will be losers. More so because of the EU determination to destabilise. We must not yield to threats.
But the balance of trade proves there will be more winners than losers.It is why we have growth and they do not. Much of the uncertainty is already in the car industry. Nothing to do with brexit, but is already a problem for supply chain like machine tools.
Remainers should ask why they want to be part of a club intent on humiliation, and second recognise they can never go back. If they did, it would be retribution in spades. The veto will go. There is only one sensible strategy other than no deal leave. Which is rescind article 50 and veto everything to paralyse brussels and then talk about a deal. Our MPs are too chicken to play hard ball. They bring a toy catapult to a gun fight. EU play dirty, always have. So must we.
Quote:
Originally Posted by DrPatrickBarry
Brexiteers, just ignore this post!
This is a nice article, it's a pity that a lot of pro-EU politicians had not being doing, for the last twenty years, what Schams El Ghoneimi suggests. Maybe many of the misunderstandings and false impressions of the EU, would not have gained the traction that they did.
Alas too late now.
https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...itizen-debates
To me, the article is a thinly designed advert that fails to even examine the reality, peferring a list of objectives on which the EU has provably failed on most.
We knew exactly why we voted leave: for example the impossibility of the euro that beggars most southern states. It is remainers in my experience who have little concept of the reality of the institutional and anti democratic dysfunctionality of far too big a group of countries that cannot agree to save their lives, except on the answer no.
In return I would ask of remainers : Can you even list the previous currency union failures? ( which is all of them) do you even know the meaning of target 2 or ecb issuer limits? The silliness of ECB collateral rules and how they will collapse Italian banks? If not - remainers certainly have no basis to claim beexiteers don't know!
It is because we have a true understanding and impression we voted to leave.
Quote:
Originally Posted by DrPatrickBarry
I’m not sure you can pin all the blame on the far right. Plenty on the left want it too.
I’m not sure anyone is going to bother to answer you but if you define what definition you’re working from. It help if someone feels like responding.Quote:
In return I would ask of remainers : Can you even list the previous currency union failures?
I am not answering but this is quite a good rant about currency unions, espically the comments at the bottom.Quote:
Originally Posted by shaunaneto
It is amazing how differently people can read history. Basically you can get it to say whatever you want.
https://gefira.org/en/2018/01/17/eur...t-and-present/
aint that the truth!
With currency unions that is simply not true. History is entirely consistent, and not spinnable on this. All failed. Which is why it is remarkable anyone tried the impossible yet again. In my view the euro destroyed the EUQuote:
Originally Posted by DrPatrickBarry
Every currency union has failed in europe for the same reasons. From the 1860s union of france, italy etc, to the currency snake, to the ERM - the earlier austrian union even, they all failed. Or try the remarkably similar roublezone. You simply cannot combine differing economies trade imbalances and levels of debt under one exchange rate and interest rate, it cannot work. The interest rate that is killing italy is creating a property bubble in germany. Only if countries are fiscally united first can it work. Too late for that. Target 2/ italian bond yields says it is now in the death throws.
The result no socialist can support. 40 percent youth unemployment in the southern states. With literally no hope of recovery, all to feed the German status quo. The "safety" valve is exchange rate movements, and they simply cannot do that. The ever more destitute pupulations or german taxpayer fear of picking up the tab, the zombie banks and capital outflows will kill it. just a matter of when. Some politics are spinnable. Not this.Try pointing at a successful union! Like successful autocratic socialist states, they dont exist.
I've mentioned this before but one of my main concerns was the imbalance caused by widely differing economies of the countries under the one umbrella which was exacerbated by the rapid expansion of member states in the last two decades. If the EU planners had been a bit more canny and created, say 3 Euro zones (North, South and East)reflecting the differing economies with a project to achieve convergence over 25 years, I might have been a bit more optimistic about the project.
As it is, asking Bulgaria and France to share the same table is unfair to both parties and totally unrealistic.
I watched an interesting video on youtube about Italy and the Lira. I had not realized that devaluation had been such a key strategy for keeping themselves competitive for decades. Italy had the double whammy, in a couple of years, of joining the Euro (January 1, 1999) and China joining the WTO (11 December 2001).
They lost the ability to devalue and even if they could they just could not keep themselves competitive, against china, in manufacturing simple goods. The whole basis of their economic policies were undermined.
What I appreciate most about this thread is how we can all have a mainly sensible, calm, sometimes robust and sometimes a bit histrionic discussion without anyone causing too much offence. In open social discussions, one sometimes feels afraid to state which 50% you are in for fear of a vitriolic response!
Just noted that the Norwegians are heavily investing in the UK as they think we are a good bet in the longterm, irrespective of Brexit. I like Norway!
Yes, I guess buying UK assets while we're gripped by uncertainty seems a sensible approach. I would expect a rebound effect whatever the outcome (that is discounting the now very low potential for a no-deal Brexit).Quote:
Originally Posted by Wheeze
Norway's sovereign wealth fund is an interesting example of what countries can do if they plan properly. I wonder if our government will ever have the foresight and the financial wiggle room to set up something similar. It's probably hard to justify while at the same time cutting money in real terms to education (for example).
I have a had a little insight in to the Pupil Premium in the last few years through the fostering.Quote:
Originally Posted by noel
It's a complete bureaucratic mess, meeting and review heavy, making schools jump through hoops to access funding which at times isn't required.
The meetings are each term, and with looked after children usually attended by 2 social workers, foster carers, sometimes parents, head teacher, class teacher, the school SENCO.
There is money floating around in the system, but it is too often funding bull-shit meetings and decisions that need to be seen to be made by committee.
If a school has 15 kids designated special needs, just give the school the money direct and let them get on with it.
The time freed up would be unbelievable, not just for school staff, but the Children's service department as well.
Anyway, Brexit thread, so I'll not deflect any more :)
I tend to agree with you, and I know teachers that would too. The contrasting argument is made quite strongly by the various reports in the media that inevitably include that "opportunities for intervention were missed". In response to these cases, it seems natural to put in place frameworks for multidisciplinary team working. And like it or not that means meetings and getting more people involved.Quote:
Originally Posted by Witton Park
But yes, back to Brexit. I see Toyota and BMW are continuing to make the case: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47457219
Companies really actually doing a “project fear”:
Sony, Ford, Honda, Panasonic, Unilever, Barclays, Diageo, HSBC, Bank of America, Nissan, Schaeffler, Airbus, Dyson, Philips, UBS, Hitachi, Jaguar Land Rover, BMW and Toyota....
And I’m sure more to come 🤔
http://www.brugesgroup.com/blog/duplicitous-leaders
This could have ramifications
It might be if they’d gone to the trouble of showing any proof. Think tank makes up story shocker
Only 2 dozen days to go before adihos amigo.
The articles opening lines said there was no doubt as documents had been seen.Quote:
Originally Posted by Derby Tup
It certainly fits in with what we actually know.
1. The DEXU Department under Davis had a white paper prepared for 2-3 months and were frustrated that No10 were holding fire on discussing it at Cabinet and presenting it to the Commons.
2. No10 sprung it's own White Paper on Cabinet a few days prior to the Chequers meeting that was to review the DEXU White Paper.
3. The Chequers White Paper was a hand-brake turn in Government policy such that all legislation was passed previously under Davis, but Chequers has practically united the Commons against legislation since with more or less the only was voting for Government policy at the moment are those on the Government's payroll.
Interestingly the article has been taken down, but it's still out there.
https://twitter.com/mollygiles2015/s...42819424051201
It seems hard to believe
If you're getting your "news" from sources that openly state they have a political agenda, it's reasonable to assume they will be promoting one side of the argument.
The fact that this claim (whatever it was) has now been removed doesn't add to its credibility.