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Our government and opposition are not working for the public.
Tusk and weyand talking 1-2 year extension , possible allowing of trade talks, for technological border to be developed. I am guessing the price will be extortionate. I think after euro elections EU will become increasingly ungovernable, financial collapses will start and increasing civil unrest. Our MPs always believed they knew better.Quote:
Originally Posted by Stagger
I said at the last General Election that it was like trying to pick the least bad shit-show out of a bunch of shit-shows.Quote:
Originally Posted by noel
In my opinion the last decent Labour leader was John Smith and I wasn't alive when they had a good one before him.
The last decent Conservative leader was Margaret Thatcher and I wasn't alive when they had a good one before her.
In almost 54 years that's a pretty sad state of affairs.
It's not just the two main parties either. The ever virtuous Liberals/LibDems have had Thorpe, good old David Steele, Paddy Pantsdown….. and Clegg who sold out on a main pledge to get a cabinet position.
One of my hopes of Brexit was to have a clean out here in the UK and I think that is what will happen as a result of this mess.
In the Tories, the only people keeping May in position are the ones that know they are toast if she goes. Self-preservation and ministerial cars and trimmings ahead of national and party interest.
Not necessarily: There are good times and bad times to oust a leader and I suspect many viewed it as poisoned chalice at present so are biding their time. And whichever way: exit, her deal, or long delay. She may stand down in the summer leading to conference. Who would blame her? All behaving like a bunch of big kids.Quote:
Originally Posted by Witton Park
Almost certainly.Quote:
Originally Posted by Oracle
Soubry, Wollaston and Allen all voted confidence in her and in the Govt in the 2 votes and then resigned the party having helped prevent a leadership contest for a year which would have almost certainly led to a Leave leader.
You can add to that all the others that trooped through the opposite lobby to May this week such as Gaulke, Rudd and a number of MPs.
They all lacked confidence in her, but voted to keep her as she was better in their mind than the alternative.
In a year's time if May is still there, they can do so again. They aren't just taking the piss out of the electorate, but their own members.
Suppose the Tories have a problem in that their own members are very unrepresentative of the type of people, that they need to woo to win an overall majority. The members would certainly put a hard-brexitieer in place, which would alienate a lot of remain leaning voters.
Why do you think the Tories are ahead in the polls? It puzzles me as they are so lousy.Quote:
Originally Posted by DrPatrickBarry
The only reasons I can think are that the rest are so bad and clearly intent on overturning the referendum result, or watering down Brexit so much it is not Leaving.
At least the public can see that a core of say 150 Tory MPs are interested in delivering on the referendum result + a further rump that until now have been tied in to the Govt.
Those definitions are unnecessarily inflammatory.Quote:
Originally Posted by DrPatrickBarry
Hard brexiteer means someone with a sense of reality, and life experience, that means when EU will not negotiate or try to screw you ( as they have done for two years), you walk away until they see sense. None of the (falsely called) hard brexiteers actually want no deal. Johnston doesnt. Mogg doesnt. Davies doesnt. They want a comprehensive deal. Just one that allows us to deal elsewhere.
But that is reality forced by EU intransigence.
But "customs union" or norway is not brexit at all which is about jurisdiction and ability to do own deals. So They are just worse forms of remain, labelled by remainers falsely as Brexit .Indeed, the ERG are the only ones actually following manifestos! Hard brexieers will tell you that it is better to revoke A50 and keep the veto, than do a worse form of remain.
Then you have complete loony land. Many of whom are called soft brexiteers who are soft in the head ie Those who vote not to no deal. ie sign blank cheque to EU , and THEY alone: not the reality people (you call hard brexiteers) are the reason we had no leverage so were offered a bad deal. In fact it is no deal at all. It is demand for money and imposition of annexation, and very little else. I prefer reality to the loony soft brexiteers, who either dont accept the referendum so are hoping to stay, or want to capitulate and sign the blank cheque. Grieve the worst but many others.
Imagine the fun to be had, sending a load of anti-EU MEPs to Brussels and using our veto to block up the EU. That's quite likely what you would end up with eventually as a consequence of undermining the referendum result.Quote:
Originally Posted by Oracle
Mind you, I'd rather just leave cleanly.
We may yet get the chance: they are discussing 2 year extension. My view is if we get the extension we veto the budget until they discuss trade.Quote:
Originally Posted by Witton Park
The EU is still not admitting the problem is 100 percent of its own making, by deliberately refusing to talk about trade, so the deal is not a deal. It is a demand for money with menaces rightly refused. Had there been a proper trade agreement even in outline, NI would not have been such a problem.
Come on Stoll there's no need for cursing like Pat Barry . I don't remember ALL your posts just the significant ones. Like when you had a sulk because forumites were more interested in reading the political threads rather than your wildlife adventures.;)Quote:
Originally Posted by Stolly
:D SimplesQuote:
Originally Posted by anthonykay
But if you are right Graham and the EU aren't our friends why would you want to remain? You said it above, just wondering? Simples!Quote:
Originally Posted by Graham Breeze
When we were in the EU the others had to be respectful (if not overly chummy) because of our intellectual contribution, financial muscle, economic clout, etc.Quote:
Originally Posted by CL
Whilst the EU is a different animal from the Common Market days (and not necessarily for the better) it will have to change because of problems like Italy, Greece etc - and we could have made those changes happen because of our clout etc.
So given we were long-standing members then remaining was the only intelligent position to hold because whilst no-one could accurately forecast how calamitous the outcome of the negotiation to leave would be, a child of 5 with an IQ above 50 and a few months of playground experience would have already had enough life-experience to know that leaving would be a disaster because of spite and revenge prompted by rejection etc.
And so it has come to pass.
But hey! I have just been out for a ride in the sun on my new Italian Bianchi/Campagnolo 22 speed, after going shopping in my German car and I am now sipping a lovely French White Burgundy and planning my next holiday in Finland (EU Member since 1995)...and life will go on.
It is common for remainers to assess the acceptability of the EU on the assumption of a sustainable present. That is not the reality. It is not sustainable. The euro will hit the buffer and there are only choices on how to disintegrate,the currency union is no longer reparable. Nor do I think our so called clout made a jot of difference to the programme of the unelected ideologues. Ultimately it is the refusal of such fanatics to negotiate before the referendum led to the vote, and also the failure to negotiate agree terms since. Britain must not yield to bullies.
"Im allright Jack" with the german car italian bike or holiday is indeed a popular emotion used as (my view false) justification of remain, which largely disgregards the fact that after brexit, all can still buy italian bikes or german cars and holiday in europe unless the EU self harm with tarriffs. What I dislike most with "im alright jack" mentality, is how it turns a blind eye to the huge wave of suffering the euro and EU imposes. What have such people to say to the 30-40 percent permanent youth unemployed becoming young adults in all of the countries that Germany hurts? They are the reason for the populist unrest that will be the undoing of italy, italian banks, the euro, and ultimately the EU
It is a calculated gamble, nothing is certain, but I think the EU elections will result in populist outcome that will spook the money markets. There are a massive amount of italian bonds due for rollover this year at what I suspect will be impossible rates: that will create the crisis. It is not new debt that will cause the crisis, it is rolling over old debt at spiralling rates.
In anticipation of the crisis following elections, money that can leave italy will and bond holders will want to sell to avoid haircuts, and the sell and so increasing rate spiral will explode the crisis. Zombie italian banks hold too many italian bonds already in what will become a doom loop for country and banks. I doubt if the numbers mean much to average Joe. But present rates hint at italian default likelihood of over 20 percent. All banks are exposed directly or indirectly to the bank collapse that could follow the crisis of confidence in italian bond markets and banks. At 2 trillion debt, ttaly is too big to save and too big to fail. Greece was only containable from contagion because it was tiny
Quote:
Originally Posted by Graham Breeze
Oracle, your beef seems to be with the Euro, which the UK is not part of.
You could argue that’s what makes UK membership of the EU unsustainable in the long-term. The EU needs to integrate more closely to save the euro. But I would imagine even many who voted remain don’t want to be part of a European super state and don’t want to join the euro.Quote:
Originally Posted by noel
If the euro collapses or Italy defaults the financial shockwaves will topple banks and cause us serious, even devastating problems. A domino collapse that ishard to predict. Our banks are indirectly exposed to it. It will also destroy the EU. Being outside the euro is scant comfort.Quote:
Originally Posted by noel
My beef is with the EU morphing from trading zone to superstate. The currency, and so budget approval a symptom of that. I also cannot condone how the EU treats the casualties of its own policies. We did not leave EU . It left us. Had it been run by a pragmatist like Hans Olaf Henkel I would have voted remain. But t would never have become what it is.
My beef is with the EU morphing from trading zone to superstate
Precisely. And that process was pushed forwards by Maastrict which is why we should have had the Referendum then. John Major is answerable for that.
Interesting points Muddy and Oracle. I've seen this argument used as a scare story.
"The EU will turn itself into a federal state. This is the time to get out."
But I don't believe it, because if it were to, we would have a veto. The only time we wouldn't have a veto is if we're outside it.
Time will tell whether the Euro is ultimately doomed. I'm less convinced. I also think mass youth unemployment in some Southern European countries is probably not solely related to the Euro. Devaluation by countries to escape from debt should be a last resort, and is a symptom of previous financial mismanagement.
And who ends up carrying the can for that mismanagement?
Who's paying for it? The young of those countries.
Other countries within the EU are benefiting from the skilled labour that is flowing from these areas of high unemployment. Some would argue that's market forces working well. Freedom of movement is allowing people to move to where the jobs are and preventing people being trapped in poverty.
What would you propose as an alternative?
Noel, I am an example of what you just described. I moved to the UK aged 21, and, as an I.T Professional, I would like to think I have contributed my little bit to the success of the UK economy over the past 30 plus years. I first come over as a student, but being Irish the situation would be no different, after Brexit. But if I was from France, Germany, etc, now that would be a very different story.
Quote:
Originally Posted by noel
Migration is proof of the systemic failure caused by inability to adjust either interest or exchange rate. The first to leave is not unskilled labour but all the young professionals who are welcome everywhere and who can earn several times more if they do. But by hollowing out the destitute countries, they condemn the countries to worse destitution. Because the overhead of ageing population are not and cannot move anywhere, and they have to be fed by ever fewer youngsters remaining. The demographic bomb gets worse. (That bomb is already devastating Japan,and will cause us serious problems in time)
I have said previously, one of the only ways that would have helped the euro malaise is for Germany to leave. When the german taxpayers realise they are on the hook for an italian default, they will want to leave! It is interesting that there is a growing tide of investment analysts are also saying Germany should start distancing itself if it does not want to bail them all out. See holger schmitz in the express today, one of an increasing number of voices.
So if you ask what is the solution, the answer was ditch the euro.( Sadly what might have been options 5-10 years ago are too late to make any difference now.) The alternative of fiscal union would never be accepted now.
CL presumably you had the very long term forum posting opportunities in mind when you were Stolly-stalking me two or three years ago? So that maybe you could be armed with vague facts to misquote me on years later, as and when a topic about something or other that we disagree on came up?? 😊
I kind of live by the generalisation that 5% of any major grouping are twats; so 5% of Yorkshiremen are twats, 5% of English, 5% of Americans, 5% of Christians, Jews, Muslims etc etc are twats. And 5% (at least) of referendum voters are/were twats clearly and there should’ve been a 5% twat factor built in to the result. It doesn’t work for small groupings - 100% of twats are twats obviously and 100% of UKIP voters are twats - but as a general rule it works and does rationalise a lot of the bad things that happen or are caused to happen in the world.
For instance there was a big hoohah in Horton in Ribblesdale where I live about the disruption caused by three peaks walkers to the locals but in reality nothing like 5% of the locals were really bothered by it and nothing like 5% of the walkers were causing it - a very comfortable 95% of everybody else were fine with things but.... the 5% (more like 2%) was able to get all this reported and blown out of proportion on the BBC where they quoted that three peaks walkers were ‘making lives miserable’.
A bit of a long winded way of saying that you are clearly a member of the 5% twat fraternity within the Fell running forum 😉
Stolly, does putting a wink after an insult make it OK?
.Quote:
Originally Posted by noel
Yes 😉
Stolly obviously isn’t being serious.
There’s no way the Yorkshire twat rate is that low....
(Insert appropriate emoticon here)
Ok ... just snort laughed tea down my noseQuote:
Originally Posted by shaunaneto
The problem is in most politics (take local labour parties) the only people motivated to get involved are the twats. So twats are massively over represented in the decisions.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Stolly
I think you are concatenating two issues here, as is clear from you referring to "destitute countries" and then using Japan as a prime example!Quote:
Originally Posted by Oracle
The flight of skilled professionals from poorer countries to places where they can have a more comfortable life is not just a European problem. There has been a lot of concern recently about many African countries losing such people.
The demographic time bomb in places like Japan is mainly due to the low birth rate, because people who are economically secure don't need to have large families, and maybe also because of the long-hours working culture that leaves people too knackered to reproduce. The latter definitely seems to be the problem in Singapore, which has a very low birth rate; but there the Government is actively encouraging immigration, of all types: skilled professionals, who get to live a very comfortable expatriate lifestyle, and unskilled workers from many other Asian countries, who get poverty wages by Singapore standards but probably more than they would be getting in their home countries. The Singapore population has increased from 3.4m to 5.5m in the last 25 years, despite a fertility rate of 1.2; I'm not sure that people in this country would be happy about immigration on that scale!
Ha ha that really made me laugh Stolly! At least Brexit has animated the forum into life.Quote:
Originally Posted by Stolly
I simply pointed out rightly that migration of working age people in EU caused by the euro, can cause the same demographic timebomb effect that Japan has had for other reasons, when too many young people leave. It is one of the reasons the destitute countries are trapped. For example Poland has made several statements on it over the years,
Quote:
Originally Posted by anthonykay
So let's do a Jon Snow and look at how this would play out on the results.Quote:
Originally Posted by Stolly
17410742 would reduce to 16540205 when the twats votes are voided off.
Funnily enough that still beats 16141241 before we even consider that 5% of Europhile twats.
Moving on, there could be the basis for a new Simon Cowell Saturday night slot here. Twat Factor, with judges/mentors Nigel Farage, Andrew Adonis and Anna Soubry where prospective super-twats come on to gain a place in the grand final and be mentored by the experts.
I'd watch it, but I fear like the London Olympics, it might end up being a Yorkshire walkover :D
Rubbish, Ireland has been exporting its population since the famine of the mid 1840s, I may be wrong but I don't think the Euro is that old.Quote:
Originally Posted by Oracle
In fact Ireland is the exact opposite of your argument. Over the years since joining the EEC/EU/Euro, Ireland's economy has massivly modernized, with the result that Ireland is a large net importer of people, much more so than the UK per head of population.
But is it really caused by the euro? People moving for resources or work is as old as the hills. We've seen (and continue to see this) within the UK, where we have one currency. And we've seen it across borders, such as Ireland to the UK.Quote:
Originally Posted by Oracle
Yes it really really is. The southern economies are trapped, in a low wage, high tax, high unemployment world that is impossible to escape within the rules of the Euro. For an introduction. to why look at such as Werner sim, eurotrap. Or just study why all other previous unions even in Europe failed. And if you vote EU , you vote to poropagate misery.Quote:
Originally Posted by noel
You seem convinced. I will research this some more and get back to you, Oracle.
On the subject of all the previous unions in Europe failing, I'd like to point out one union that has stood reasonably strongly for over 300 years. Or are you not considering Scotland and England part of Europe?
There is more to it than just the Euro. The Euro inevitably plays a part, but there are countries not in the Euro who have played a huge part in the migration across Europe.Quote:
Originally Posted by noel
You really have to look at push and pull factors.
The Euro has created an environment that has enhanced the pull factors for example in Germany and the push factors in Italy but those factors are just the same in non-Euro countries.
Those push and pull factors elsewhere are managed by systems such as the ones operated by Australia.
They are seen within the UK, even within regions of the UK.
Australia as an example of what? Good practice? Their annual and decreasing immigration thresholds are widely detested by businesses in Australia and are seen as shooting their economy in the foot and, as for their policy for dealing with asylum seekers, it’s particularly cruel: https://www.theguardian.com/australi...e_iOSApp_OtherQuote:
Originally Posted by Witton Park