a new word on my Graham. Thanks for that one :)Quote:
Originally Posted by Graham Breeze
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a new word on my Graham. Thanks for that one :)Quote:
Originally Posted by Graham Breeze
Me too. I still can’t work out whether Graham was agreeing with me or travs although, given my general experiences when I dip in on this thread, I’m not holding my breath
That’s true Stolly but despite that I still think you should be allowed to vote.Quote:
Originally Posted by Stolly
Haha 😊
Particularly the ignorant with Gina millers money.
I completely dispute the idea of soft Brexit which is a remainer fallacy
Being in customs union is all of the EU control with none of the trade advantages,
I’m a Brexiteer but also pragmatic.
If not out completely ( ignore the idiot scare stories) then stay in and make EUs life a misery. If we are even partly in we must keep the veto.
Soft Brexit is a remain mp illusion, of those who do not want to be seen to revoke A50, but neither do they want to Brexit , so they offer the worst of both worlds, and stall it forever. They have no guts.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Stolly
:DQuote:
Originally Posted by Stolly
I’d argue that there’s a difference between being ignorant and being uninterested...!
As for my one vote, for what it’s worth, I didn’t vote in the referendum (I believe it will make little difference in or out) and my constituency is a safe seat with a large majority, so my election vote isn’t really worth a jot either...
you're really not.Quote:
but also pragmatic
Don't try and reinvent yourself as some sort of "oh, I don't know" type. You used the term Fourth Reich to describe the EU and have endlessly poured out anti-EU bile on this forum.
no, it's a device which highlights the "hardness" of a "hard" Brexit (ie "crashing out"/WTO terms/"no deal").Quote:
Soft Brexit is a remain mp illusion
whereas crashing out means having no say over the terms of trade yet still having to comply with them.....Quote:
Being in customs union is all of the EU control with none of the trade advantages,
The EU is an underperforming , despotic , fundamentally flawed, power grabbing failure that has made misery for millions, and is destined to fail, with a one way traffic of money and people that makes the poor even poorer. Like previous empires, It is more obsessed with its own power Than it is with wellbeing.That will remain true however much illinformed remainers with rose tinted glasses try to pretend it is otherwise. I care about the victims because I meet them, you seemingly don’t.
From day 1 I have said we are either in or out. An independent nation with trading agreement or in at the heart stopping these EU despots from making it worse.
In my view it is time to bail from the titanic. You seemingly would rather sink. Remainers see the EU as stable, it is not , it is disintegrating. Those who think customs union is brexit, like most remainers seemingly, clearly do not understand the union. But then I have traded round the world , you have not.
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Originally Posted by Dave_Mole
Mmmh. There is something refreshing about a non-obfuscated point of view.:)Quote:
Originally Posted by Oracle
having your own personal troll is quite a forum achievement :DQuote:
Originally Posted by Oracle
but then, you're a pompous idiot.....Quote:
But then I have traded round the world , you have not.
You forgot boringQuote:
Originally Posted by Dave_Mole
I think the election playbook is quite simple.
We know that the Brexit question cuts across party lines and that both Labour and Con will loose votes to parties offering a clear leave/remain manifesto, probably in similar proportions.
So the question then is, who will hold the balance of power in terms of seats to offer an alliance? Brexit Party or Lib Dem/SNP/Green group?
My money is on Brexit who will then naturally align with Con. The devil in the detail would be then for BJ to get a Brexit "deal" that satisfies Farage. Or will Farage just lend his weight to simply get UK out and sort out the deal afterwards (surely the better option?).
Aye, that's was Donalds advice.
Boris and Nige join together to be an unstoppable force.
Good bloke is Donald. 😂🤣
This is the super-successful "do or die", "dead in a ditch" Boris who has had pretty much everything he's put through Parliment defeated? And Furridge, who has "left politics" so many times he himself has lost count. Kippers have had two whole MPs and now have none. The Brexit "Party" are at 7% in the polls.Quote:
Boris and Nige join together to be an unstoppable force.
Sounds like a Recipe for Success!
With 5 million leave voters in the Labour heartlands up for grabs, I see Nige doing fair to middling.
The southerners will back Boris.
A couple of Scots will back Nige.
And only a fool would back Corbyn.
Greens, snp, dup and the rest will fight over scraps and Swinson will fade away.
Farage has proposed a so called "Leave Alliance" this morning and given Boris two weeks to respond before putting in his nominations. I think there is no chance of Boris going for that. It would require him to scrap the recent deal he negotiated with the EU, which he isn't going to do. If he did it would likely split open the Conservative Party all over again. It would also probably drive some potential Tory voters into the embrace of the Liberal Democrats.
So the Brexit Party is likely to field candidates in all constituencies in England, Scotland and Wales. This may split the Leave vote in marginal constituencies but on the other hand may take plenty of votes off Labour in the north. It is anybody's guess as to which factor will end up being the more decisive.
I so hope that is true, then they will split the brexit vote and we end up with a 100% remain paramilent leading to revoking article 50, happy days.:pQuote:
Originally Posted by Muddy Retriever
I definitely agree with you there. The other big potential problem of going into cahoots with the Brexit party is that the conservatives would definitely kiss good bye to the ‘remain corner’ of their voters. I know lots of long term conservative voters who are or were remainers that would still vote for Boris, even if a bit begrudgingly, but not for a Boris ~ Farage allianceQuote:
Originally Posted by Muddy Retriever
But then again just as likely is the Remain vote being split between Labour and LibDems:DQuote:
Originally Posted by DrPatrickBarry
That's why it is so hard to call how this election is going to go.
Yeah I agree that that’s another unknown too but that split will be effected by tactical voting as much as anything. I’d be happy to vote Lib Dem or labour depending on what is gauged to be the best anti-Brexit vote and there’s a huge number of remainers now that put remain well ahead of any party loyalty. I’d vote green if I lived in Brighton.
Ya, I was just taking the piss. I have seen numberous people from polling companies asked how it will turn out and they all threw their hands in the air and said impossible to predict.Quote:
Originally Posted by Muddy Retriever
Interesting times ahead.
Labour/LibDems/Greens/NATs in Wales and Scotland.Quote:
Originally Posted by Muddy Retriever
Boris hasn't actually attempted to put much through the Commons. But his main priority was to persuade the EU to revise the Withdrawal Agreement and remove the backstop.
I still don't like his agreement, but it is better, and he has achieved something no one thought he could.
As for the current polling.
Ipsos MORI: CON: 41% (+8) LAB: 24% (-) LDEM: 20% (-3) BREX: 7% (-3)
YouGov: CON: 36% (-) LAB: 21% (-2) LDEM: 18% (-) BREX: 13% (+1)
Survation: CON: 34% (+2) LAB: 26% (+2) LDEM: 19% (-2) BREX: 12% (-1)
Average
Tory 37, Labour 24, LDEM 19, Brex 11 is I suspect about where we are at the moment.
So the 7% is one poll and a bit of a rogue one which has the Tories at 41%, so if you want to take that as a guide, Boris is home and dry with a 50+ seat majority.
The BP have typically been 12/13% for a few weeks now.
Their national polling level isn't actually that relevant. It is how they do in the specific places.
Burnley near me, 66% leave, Labour MP.
Wigan - 63% leave, Labour MP.
Stoke-on-Trent North - 72% leave, Labour MP
They can drop to 7% on election night, but still gain some seats in specific areas.
Ipsos Mori had the 2017 snap election as a shoe in for the conservatives when it was called WP so it’s still all to play for. I still have no idea how they get reliable polling especially on their telephone polls. I mean how many people actually use their land lines anymore or are in to take calls.... apart from elderly Tory voters of course 😉Quote:
Originally Posted by Witton Park
nah, just the Brexit thing, wasn't it? How did that go?Quote:
Boris hasn't actually attempted to put much through the Commons.
Come Nige and Boris please apply our democratic views.
Obviously not well because we had a Remain dominated parliament determined to either stop Brexit or at the very least dilute it to the point of it being meaningless. Many of them of course doing so in contravention of their manifesto commitments. We know all this, so what's your point? It's hardly Boris' fault that this parliament was so disreputable.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave_Mole
Oh dear Boris are you making a big mistake???
Yes I think so if that option is available to me. I've enjoyed listening to his show on LBC over the past year. And through it he has created a following that cannot be underestimated. I expect his influence to be great.Quote:
Originally Posted by Muddy Retriever
As for Boris' treaty I'm with Nigel and 'The Oracle' on that one. It'll lead to years of acrimony. Just getting it done so we can all have a bit of peace and quiet now will be one of those "it seemed like a good idea at the time."
yes, when it was called May hadn't launched the Dementia Tax, and refused to get involved in the TV debates.Quote:
Originally Posted by Stolly
In the local elections only 4 weeks prior, Tories 38% and labour 27%.
But as I mentioned in an earlier post, I can't see Johnson having anything like as bad a campaign as May and I can't see Corbyn getting away with promising the earth to everyone unchallenged, and his Brexit policy is nuts.
So yes, I accept a campaign can change things, and pollsters have a track record to live down to, but if the current polling average above is anything like election night, we'll see a swing to Tories from Labour.
The LibDens could be in real trouble. The polls are definitely going the wrong way for them. They seem to have become as much a single issue party as the Brexit Party with left and right coming together under the banner of bollocks.
Consider that around half their MPs are defectors. Can you really see Sandbach winning in Eddisbury, Angela Smith (who's moved constituency) unseating Graham Brady? Luciana Berger in a Liverpool seat? Philip Lee the ex Tory in Bracknell.
Even Swinson is vulnerable. She lost her seat in 2015.
https://www.theatlantic.com/internat...radkar/600925/
an interesting article. Quite along one.
It all depends on how many Tory voters defect to the LibDems with their MP's.Quote:
Originally Posted by Witton Park
I had an interesting conversation with my sister a couple of weeks ago. Unlike me, she knows a bit about business and trade: she started her own electronics manufacturing company in her late 20's, and has run three other medium-sized manufacturing businesses since then. She has not only voted Tory, but has been very active in her constituency Conservative party. But she announced that she is going to vote LibDem this time: not only does she think Brexit is a disaster, she doesn't like the arrogance of Boris.
I have just heard Matthew Parris on the radio saying that he will vote LibDem this time. And Stephen Dorrell, former Tory MP here in Loughborough, has actually joined the LibDem party.
A gentleman speaking on the wireless today made a good point: Lib Dems tend to do well in the South West. But then the South West was very pro-brexit, so that might be problematic for them, in (if anywhere is) there "heartland".
On the other hand, the centre party typically gets squeezed in very close elections. This one isn't looking close at all.
Doesn't matter, it's a remain House.Quote:
Originally Posted by Stagger
It WAS a remain house, I don't think it will be at Christmas. Santa Boris will deliver the goods.Quote:
Originally Posted by mr brightside
I want a Garden Bridge in London.Quote:
Santa Boris will deliver the goods.
Also Brexit by Oct 31st.
Before Boris was chosen as PM he was accused of being dishonest and lax I.e. wasn't good at grasping the details of an issue. Firstly he was torn between Remain and Leave. Secondly he said May's deal wasn't a proper Brexit then voted for it. Then he said he'd never put a border in the Irish sea and he's about to. Then he told us we'd be leaving on the 31st of October when he knew the Remain losers were in control of parliament. And only yesterday Farage on Andrew Marr's show said Boris didn't understand what his EU treaty meant. Watch here.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episod...-show-03112019
All in all not very confidence inspiring for true Leavers.
I've been voting since 1983.Quote:
Originally Posted by CL
I have never voted for something that was 100% what I supported and I suspect that is the case for most and it has increasingly been about voting for the best of a bad bunch.
Back in 2017 at the General Election, the best option I could only give a 2/10. That election really was a piss-poor choice.
So from my perspective the same is the case with the EU and that applies to those that supported Remaining.
No Remainer supports the EU as it is. So they are all pro EU with buts. Those buts vary from person to person.
The same with Leavers.
I didn't like May's deal for a number of reasons. The main one being it seemed to box us in to a corner and tie the hands of future Governments.
I'd have given it a 2/10 and I would have actually preferred to Remain than take that arrangement.
But BJ has removed that trap of the backstop and he has managed to change the direction of travel to FTA rather than such close alignment that we would essentially be remaining without a say.
So I see this as a way of getting us out cleanly, not ideally, but in a way which leaves future prospective parties of Govt to put forward manifestos with policies that wouldn't be allowed whilst in.
Yes, I think Boris is driven by the desire to be Prime Minister. Other things like Brexit, Northern Ireland and the trivialities of details seem a lot less important to him.Quote:
Originally Posted by CL