Brexit

[Witton Park]

Ipsos Mori had the 2017 snap election as a shoe in for the conservatives when it was called WP so it’s still all to play for. I still have no idea how they get reliable polling especially on their telephone polls. I mean how many people actually use their land lines anymore or are in to take calls.... apart from elderly Tory voters of course ��

yes, when it was called May hadn't launched the Dementia Tax, and refused to get involved in the TV debates.

In the local elections only 4 weeks prior, Tories 38% and labour 27%.

But as I mentioned in an earlier post, I can't see Johnson having anything like as bad a campaign as May and I can't see Corbyn getting away with promising the earth to everyone unchallenged, and his Brexit policy is nuts.

So yes, I accept a campaign can change things, and pollsters have a track record to live down to, but if the current polling average above is anything like election night, we'll see a swing to Tories from Labour.

The LibDens could be in real trouble. The polls are definitely going the wrong way for them. They seem to have become as much a single issue party as the Brexit Party with left and right coming together under the banner of bollocks.

Consider that around half their MPs are defectors. Can you really see Sandbach winning in Eddisbury, Angela Smith (who's moved constituency) unseating Graham Brady? Luciana Berger in a Liverpool seat? Philip Lee the ex Tory in Bracknell.

Even Swinson is vulnerable. She lost her seat in 2015.

[Witton Park]

https://www.theatlantic.com/internat...radkar/600925/

an interesting article. Quite along one.

[anthonykay]

Consider that around half their MPs are defectors. Can you really see Sandbach winning in Eddisbury, Angela Smith (who's moved constituency) unseating Graham Brady? Luciana Berger in a Liverpool seat? Philip Lee the ex Tory in Bracknell.

It all depends on how many Tory voters defect to the LibDems with their MP's.

I had an interesting conversation with my sister a couple of weeks ago. Unlike me, she knows a bit about business and trade: she started her own electronics manufacturing company in her late 20's, and has run three other medium-sized manufacturing businesses since then. She has not only voted Tory, but has been very active in her constituency Conservative party. But she announced that she is going to vote LibDem this time: not only does she think Brexit is a disaster, she doesn't like the arrogance of Boris.

I have just heard Matthew Parris on the radio saying that he will vote LibDem this time. And Stephen Dorrell, former Tory MP here in Loughborough, has actually joined the LibDem party.

[noel]

A gentleman speaking on the wireless today made a good point: Lib Dems tend to do well in the South West. But then the South West was very pro-brexit, so that might be problematic for them, in (if anywhere is) there "heartland".

On the other hand, the centre party typically gets squeezed in very close elections. This one isn't looking close at all.

[mr brightside]

Come Nige and Boris please apply our democratic views.

Doesn't matter, it's a remain House.

[Stagger]

Doesn't matter, it's a remain House.

It WAS a remain house, I don't think it will be at Christmas. Santa Boris will deliver the goods.

[Dave_Mole]

Santa Boris will deliver the goods.

I want a Garden Bridge in London.
Also Brexit by Oct 31st.

[CL]

Before Boris was chosen as PM he was accused of being dishonest and lax I.e. wasn't good at grasping the details of an issue. Firstly he was torn between Remain and Leave. Secondly he said May's deal wasn't a proper Brexit then voted for it. Then he said he'd never put a border in the Irish sea and he's about to. Then he told us we'd be leaving on the 31st of October when he knew the Remain losers were in control of parliament. And only yesterday Farage on Andrew Marr's show said Boris didn't understand what his EU treaty meant. Watch here.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episod...-show-03112019

All in all not very confidence inspiring for true Leavers.

[Witton Park]

Before Boris was chosen as PM he was accused of being dishonest and lax I.e. wasn't good at grasping the details of an issue. Firstly he was torn between Remain and Leave. Secondly he said May's deal wasn't a proper Brexit then voted for it. Then he said he'd never put a border in the Irish sea and he's about to. Then he told us we'd be leaving on the 31st of October when he knew the Remain losers were in control of parliament. And only yesterday Farage on Andrew Marr's show said Boris didn't understand what his EU treaty meant. Watch here.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episod...-show-03112019

All in all not very confidence inspiring for true Leavers.

I've been voting since 1983.

I have never voted for something that was 100% what I supported and I suspect that is the case for most and it has increasingly been about voting for the best of a bad bunch.

Back in 2017 at the General Election, the best option I could only give a 2/10. That election really was a piss-poor choice.

So from my perspective the same is the case with the EU and that applies to those that supported Remaining.

No Remainer supports the EU as it is. So they are all pro EU with buts. Those buts vary from person to person.

The same with Leavers.

I didn't like May's deal for a number of reasons. The main one being it seemed to box us in to a corner and tie the hands of future Governments.
I'd have given it a 2/10 and I would have actually preferred to Remain than take that arrangement.

But BJ has removed that trap of the backstop and he has managed to change the direction of travel to FTA rather than such close alignment that we would essentially be remaining without a say.

So I see this as a way of getting us out cleanly, not ideally, but in a way which leaves future prospective parties of Govt to put forward manifestos with policies that wouldn't be allowed whilst in.

[noel]

All in all not very confidence inspiring for true Leavers.

Yes, I think Boris is driven by the desire to be Prime Minister. Other things like Brexit, Northern Ireland and the trivialities of details seem a lot less important to him.