I echo thanks to all who made it happen so smoothly. I even made it back in time for the hot food and all the presentations this time (unlike the Trigger!)
I usually have a target beforehand (even the first time I run a particular race) but rarely have split predictions. I am more of a post-race analysis type.
On that note, just taking random 10 other folk (spread right across the field) who ran both the Kinder Trog (June 2011) and the ES (Mar 2012) and ratioing their times in minutes. Gives a range of ES:KT ratios between 1.46 (Compo) and 1.62 (Zephr and Dynamo Dan) with a mean of 1.56 and median of 1.57. My own ratio is a high outlier 1.64 despite me being equally fit for both. To equal the mean ratio I would have had to have been 15 mins quicker in the ES, which would have been 5 mins inside my target. I wasn't pushing too hard on ES but I do think I lost most of the 15 mins on Kinder edge, mainly due to not having trained for the distance beyond 16 mikes. My weekend long runs tend to be KT distances (3 hr runs) rather than 4hr+. Even so I gained a few places after Brown Knoll and lost fewer on Kinder Edge, so I think I paced myself OK compared to most of those around me at that point. I descended the last 1 km from Kinder edge quicker than the folk I was with by then, being 3 mins quicker than one of them. Of all the sections the climb up Lose hill was the one where I seemed to lose ground / places, but regaining most if not all by Brown Knoll.
So, I think my ES target will probably stay the same for next time, and I'll try and rest (not Parkrun!) the day before, and up my long training runs to 4hr+
It was folk like Rob Taylor who astounded me Sunday, starting slowly and seemingly overtaking half of the field after Win Hill. We were together on the Roman Road and he was only 2 minutes ahead at Win hill, but 50 mins ahead by the finish! Talk about steady acceleration.