When I used the terms cost and benefit I wasn't talking about just monetary, in fact monetary is hardly a part of it at all.
However, in terms of economists, our independent OBR have forecasted poorly since they came in to place and everyone is expecting their forecasts tomorrow to be wrong.
But go back to the treasury forecast before the referendum. They actually gt part way there, but unfortunately the model they put forward was politically skewed.
The Remain model had an EU thriving, signing new trade deals, what you would call a dynamic forecast.
The comparable Leave model didn't even credit the UK with signing any bi-lateral deals between leaving and 2030.
A few examples:
If we take as a central assumption that the UK would seek a negotiated bilateral agreement, like Canada has, the costs to Britain are clear. Based on the Treasury’s estimates, our GDP would be 6.2% lower; families would be £4,300 worse off.
Direct quote from George Osborne taken from the Treasury Report opening comments.
When using the worst case scenario, the WTO model it comes out even worse at 7.5% / £5200
This makes it look like we will be poorer than we are now. What it really should say if it was being accurate and honest is:
“Based on our questionable economic model, if the UK votes to leave the EU, the UK will still continue to grow, it will still be economically successful, but just not quite as successful as if we stay in.”
The Treasury figures for this Canada style Brexit package, if accepted, show that the UK will have 31% higher GDP by 2030.
The Treasury assumed that with both Remain and Brexit, net migration would be 3 million by 2030. Yet with Brexit, even if the net migration does remain at 3 million, it is likely to be more selective and that should lead to a different demographic and should have a more positive effect on the UK economy than under EU freedom of movement.
The Treasury did not allow for any benefit from the removal of any EU regs on business following Brexit. Open Europe has done a report suggesting that Brexit could remove EU regs worth 1.3% GDP.
So on balance, when I examined the Treasury report which showed us to be less than 0.5% well off per annum by 2030 but still having had 31% GDP growth, I felt that cutting through the political crap, financially it would be broadly neutral or positive.
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