post brexit

[Witton Park]

A few points in answer to this.

- What Hammond actually said was this was what the OBR's forecast. He never said that this is what he believed. A small point maybe.
- The OBR was forecasting that the Government would have to borrow £122 billion in total by 2020. Of this £59 billion was attributable to the effects of Brexit.
- The most important point is that this is a forecast - not fact. This concept seems to be quite a difficult one for some of you to grasp. Any forecast is only as good as the assumptions that are put into it and can and often is blown away by unforeseen events. The OBR's forecast are almost always wrong. It's forecast for this year is now actually higher than what it was forecasting in March, when all the expectations were that we would stay in the EU.

Just before the referendum the Treasury forecast that growth would be -0.1% in the quarter to September if we voted to leave, such would be the shock to the economy in terms of uncertainty etc. In the event growth was 0.5%. That's a pretty spectacular difference for one quarter wouldn't you say? Perhaps some of the Remain supporters on here would like to explain why they got it so wrong.

Personally I'd like to wait and see what happens rather than assume that forecasts that are almost always wrong will be correct this time. And even if they do come true, we will still be doing better than our counterparts in the eurozone.

Spot on MR and a further point. The OBR makes these forecasts. They are more like to be correct, if the executive make this a dog's breakfast of a transition.

[Hobbsy]

I'd probably have more time if I worked in the the state sector

Is there one left....?!!

[Witton Park]

Is there one left....?!!

Unfortunately yes, and I have to work within it on a daily basis. If I operated with my customers, how they do, I wouldn't be in business for long.
Can't even make a phone call to advise a meeting is cancelled.

[noel]

Retired - what gave you that impression?

Erm, how can I side-step this...

Your historical knowledge.

[Stolly]

Yet again, with the flick of the wrist and a spoonful of pro-brexit tunnel vision, WP and MR are both stating their firm belief that they know better than the Bank of England, the Institute for Fiscal Studies and the Office for Budget Responsibilty

[Witton Park]

Yet again, with the flick of the wrist and a spoonful of pro-brexit tunnel vision, WP and MR are both stating their firm belief that they know better than the Bank of England, the Institute for Fiscal Studies and the Office for Budget Responsibilty

Let's just say over the last 6 months we've had a better record

[Muddy Retriever]

Yet again, with the flick of the wrist and a spoonful of pro-brexit tunnel vision, WP and MR are both stating their firm belief that they know better than the Bank of England, the Institute for Fiscal Studies and the Office for Budget Responsibilty

Just judging them by their records - we're not making our own GDP predictions.

All forecasts have to be treated with a pinch of salt because they are wrong so often. Before the OBR was founded Government forecast were done by the Treasury. In June 2007 it's central forecast for the middle of 2009 was for growth of 2.5%. It estimated that there was a 90% probability that growth would be between 0.8% and 4.2%. That's a pretty wide range for them to be right but they still weren't. Actual growth.......minus 6%!

As I keep saying (and you keep ignoring) the forecast for the quarter to September was wildly out. We were supposed to be suffering an "immediate and profound economic shock". Well so far it hasn't happened. So given that the only forecast that we have had that can be tested was total b***ocks why do you think we should automatically accept any others as being factual?

That's why I say I will wait and see. I do think it is likely that there will be some uncertainty during the Brexit negotiation period but businesses do tend to adapt to circumstances. But even if the OBR is correct or nearly correct it will be far too soon to say whether Brexit is an economic success or not. It will probably be more valid to look back in 10 or 15 years when the UK has had chance to negotiate its own trade deals and make its own laws. I suspect by then the eruozone will still be experiencing sluggish growth if it even exists.

[RaceTheSweeper]

If anyone is interested, watch out for thee Exiting the European Unions Select Committee that was on this morning on Parliament TV. They usually replay them a few times over the next week and it was really interesting.


You can see both Remain and Leave MPs learning things they didn't know.

.

Good call WP - a regular watch from me is Today in Parliament if there is something I wish to understand without the bias and personal beliefs. My morning coffee is often accompanied with "(day) in parliament" highlights from the day before. Sometimes though as its the BBC it can be very bias so it is better if you are really interested to watch the whole debate on i-player without any cuts.
Here is the "Exiting the European Unions Select Committee" that you mentioned. I hope everyone watches it with an open mind and does not get up and make a cup of tea when the positive/negative bit whichever they disagree with comes on ;-) http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode...e-eu-committee

[anthonykay]

All forecasts have to be treated with a pinch of salt because they are wrong so often. Before the OBR was founded Government forecast were done by the Treasury. In June 2007 it's central forecast for the middle of 2009 was for growth of 2.5%. It estimated that there was a 90% probability that growth would be between 0.8% and 4.2%. That's a pretty wide range for them to be right but they still weren't. Actual growth.......minus 6%!

As I keep saying (and you keep ignoring) the forecast for the quarter to September was wildly out. We were supposed to be suffering an "immediate and profound economic shock". Well so far it hasn't happened. So given that the only forecast that we have had that can be tested was total b***ocks why do you think we should automatically accept any others as being factual?

An economist is someone who will explain tomorrow why the forecast he made yesterday turned out wrong today.
[Source unknown.]

[Mike T]

"All forecasts have to be treated with a pinch of salt because they are wrong so often. Before the OBR was founded Government forecast were done by the Treasury. In June 2007 it's central forecast for the middle of 2009 was for growth of 2.5%. It estimated that there was a 90% probability that growth would be between 0.8% and 4.2%. That's a pretty wide range for them to be right but they still weren't. Actual growth.......minus 6%!"

Er - didn't something fairly massive happen in 2008 - surely most people's predictions were wrong for this period?