Brexit

[Oracle]

Generally true.
But she could have played a wily game using indicative votes.

Ask the commons "do you want to oppose the negotiating order, do you demand that trade is talked first" The house would never have voted to spend 40 billion before talking trade. So by asking the right leading questions, she could have quelled dissenters without the power to force decisions through.

Which ever way they vote, she can then blame the house. And it would have been the UK stating it as a whole.

By keeping it to herself, she has unfairly been blamed for Barniers intransigence.

I think the General Election fiasco has played a bit part in why we are where we are today. May correctly identified that the majority she inherited from Cameron was not big enough given that there would be a large body of MP's who would try and frustrate Brexit and undermine the Government's position. On the face of it, it made absolute sense to try and get a bigger majority given the opinion polls were showing 20+ percentage point leads. But what followed was probably the worst general election campaign ever with May exposed as a wooden performer. It resulted in her losing even the small majority she previously had.

After that May was severely weakened and the Government was undermined at every turn with remainers like Blair and Clegg rushing to Brussels urging the EU to offer harsh terms so that we might decide to have a second referendum and overturn the first one. Even part of the Cabinet joined in the act, repeatedly saying how bad no-deal would be. Phillip Hammond even refused to release the money required by Government departments to prepare for it. It was reported at the time of the General Election that May was about to sack Hammond. Now she was too weak to do so. The result has been a shambles. The EU (rightly) concluded that we wouldn't leave without a deal and had therefore no incentive to offer a good one. Rather they could offer a bad deal in the hope the decision could be reversed or at the very worst let us leave but on vassal nation terms.

[Oracle]

I thought you were right, but no.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_C...rship_election

I think he tried to get MPs to support his application, maybe he didnt manage to get enough votes to enter the first round? may be wrong. He certainly talked of past leadership aspirations in interviews after he resigned. Maybe he stood against cameron?

EDIT

That is what I, perhaps we, are remembering. He stood against Cameron.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2005_C...rship_election

[Muddy Retriever]

After that May was severely weakened and the Government was undermined at every turn

I should also add that after the election May lost her two trusted advisers Nick Timothy and Fiona Hilton. They were partly blamed for the poor campaign and Nick Timothy in particular for his part in writing the disastrous manifesto. But Timothy was also a brexiteer and now he was no longer around May relied increasingly on the advice of the remain inclined civil service, particularly Olly Robbins. So I think this is also a reason for the change in her direction and the subsequent sidelining of first Davis and then Raab.

[Witton Park]

As far as I am aware, Davis put his name in the hat at the last leader election. He did not get into the final two. I don't recollect him campaigning for it.

As for "bottling it". I cannot agree with Witton. May sidelined him, refused to listen to his advice, even on the most fundamental issue of negotiating order. What was the point in his remaining as a nominal brexit secretary with no responsibility or authority?

I said we had a Remain PM..... ie Cameron. He bottled it.

Davis wasn't in the leadership contest in 2015. He last stood in 2005 when he came 1st in the first round, but eventually came 2nd to Cameron.

a bit more attention to detail Mr Oracle

[Oracle]

Where was he in 2016? He is still interested according to this.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/850686...p-theresa-may/

I said we had a Remain PM..... ie Cameron. He bottled it.

Davis wasn't in the leadership contest in 2015. He last stood in 2005 when he came 1st in the first round, but eventually came 2nd to Cameron.

a bit more attention to detail Mr Oracle

[Oracle]

So I wonder what this case is about.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/11...lish-democrats
The statutory instruments are visible on the schedule in both houses in Hansard on Mar 27. Was it the form of them?

[noel]

So taking the polling, there is a majority for No Deal among the public.

I'm interested to know why you think this is the case. My interpretation - as I've already stated, is the exact opposite.

PS. Did you see the article a few days ago saying Brexit has cost £66bn already.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/b...-a8854726.html

I always take these analyses with a pinch of salt. It's clearly had some effect on the economy in terms of less investment and a few business decisions to move work elsewhere. But £66bn is such a staggeringly large amount, I don't believe it.

[anthonykay]

We had a Remain PM who said he would stay on, invoke article 50 immediately and see the process through if the UK voted to leave.

He bottled it and ran off.

I don't think Brexiteers should complain about Cameron leaving the stage. If he had stayed on to oversee Brexit, I'm sure he would have ensured that it was a true BINO, staying in the Single Market, Customs Union, etc.. Putting Cameron in charge of Brexit would be like asking Jeremy Corbyn to privatise the nationalised industries.

On the subject of the next Tory leader, if you want a committed Brexiteer, Iain Duncan Smith seems to be a really sensible bloke. Oh wait, that's why no-one wants him.

[Witton Park]

I'm interested to know why you think this is the case.

Because 3 polls in the last week said so.

If a poll gives 44% No Deal, 42% Remain, 14% Don't Know, that is not majority, but if that were to go to the polling booth it would be 51.1% No Deal against 48.9% Remain as the don't knows don't count.

I added

I obviously accept that polling is unreliable, but no one can say with confidence whether there is or isn't a majority for No Deal at the moment among the public. I think it's too close to call with all recent polls being within such a small band that a 2% swing could turn it the other way.

[Witton Park]

PS. Did you see the article a few days ago saying Brexit has cost £66bn already.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/b...-a8854726.html

I always take these analyses with a pinch of salt. It's clearly had some effect on the economy in terms of less investment and a few business decisions to move work elsewhere. But £66bn is such a staggeringly large amount, I don't believe it.

Like you I don't believe it.

Mostly because we have still managed to stay slightly above the EU trend growth.

I have seen a constant stream of forecasts since before the referendum, all relating to Brexit, and the forecasts have been wrong, all too pessimistic.

I do not doubt that some investment decisions have been held back. These decisions will still have to be made and as I worked for a relatively large German owned international company for a number of years I'm pretty sure they would just sit on their hands until they have clarity, unless there is a real pressing need for them to make an urgent decision.