Barnier is doing a very good job
Barnier is doing a very good job
Last edited by Derby Tup; 10-04-2019 at 06:33 AM.
That is how he presents himself, but he is both architect and agent.Originally Posted by Graham Breeze
He juncker, selmayr, weyand and such as verhofstadt will have convinced the 27 " trust us, they will be forced to capitulate". Barnier has his own credibility irrevocably attached to this.
I think now they are doubting their own prediction. We were supposed to have caved in by now. The voices are growing in Germany as well as elsewhere that the approach taken is crazy, even Merkel is going off message, and such as Gabriel, the AFD indeed their own Europe commissioner are breaking ranks.
If May had not overruled Davis on kicking back the EU negotiating order we would be in a wholly different place now. For that May also deserves the condemnation of history.
Last edited by Oracle; 10-04-2019 at 08:02 AM.
Good job for whom?
A good negotiator aims for win win, knows just how far to push. Barnier aimed at win lose. And since there is no agreement just acrimony, Barnier has lost this big time. He has already alienated The EUs biggest potential partner in the process.
His hubris has paralysed Europe, at a time it is already headed into a recession, from which it will not survive intact. German manufacturing is down 10 percent in a few months. Worst figures for many years, Barnier is partly to thank for that. If Germany catches a cold, Italy will catch fatal pneumonia. Yet Even now barnier refuses to discuss trade. People don't seem to realise just how serious the economics are in Italy. It is not just a local problem because of the interconnectedness of banks. Italy can easily take down the entire EU. It's banks are already insolvent. A large proportion of the bank loans are non performing already. It is teetering on a knife edge.
Barnier is now proposing a year extension in which neither the withdrawal agreement nor trade arrangements can be discussed!. The kamikaze idiot is actively trying to frustrate a deal, not to enable one. Barnier is prolonging and increasing the damage. When they write the history in ten years time , he will rightly get much of the blame
The ideology trumping common sense of tusk, Juncker , selmayr, Barnier and others have sowed the seeds of division in Europe which will manifest in populist votes. The centre will be wiped out in upcoming elections, and I predict disastrous consequences for financial confidence in the markets if populist parties take over. 200 basis points on Italian bonds will herald the beginning of the end, and the ECB are not legally allowed to help.
Seriously. I am buying gold. They used to laught at the Old timers in Greece who kept money under their beds and didn't trust banks. But when capital controls started the older generation had the last laugh. It was their money kept entire families alive. If Italian banks crash, expect bail ins here: savings replaced by worthless bank shares.
Last edited by Oracle; 10-04-2019 at 08:58 AM.
There’s a long way to go. We’re barely on the pops and pics. The drinks haven’t even been ordered yet. In war the winners get to write the story
This isn't quite right. In recent polling, 3 in the last week or so, no deal has been the most popular option and I appreciate sometimes the answer can fluctuate depending on the way the question has been framed.
Whilst not a majority, the question allowed "don't know" and of course in a 2nd referendum or a Commons Vote abstentions do not count. It is the votes of those that participate that count.
So taking the polling, there is a majority for No Deal among the public.
I obviously accept that polling is unreliable, but no one can say with confidence whether there is or isn't a majority for No Deal at the moment among the public. I think it's too close to call with all recent polls being within such a small band that a 2% swing could turn it the other way.
There was an interesting poll out yesterday. I've been waiting for this to happen and this was the first to show it.
A Comres poll showed support for Labour and Tory both on 32% and I think we might see them both drop below 30% before long.
Richard Taylor
"William Tell could take an apple off your head. Taylor could take out a processed pea."
Sid Waddell
A scenario for the 'experts' to discuss.
From day 1, May knew there was no point in negotiating with the EU, who were intent on frustrating the process. Hence preparations for no deal with the EU started in earnest over 2 years ago, and are significantly advanced. Unfortunately too many MPs failed to understand the situation, had their own agendas, and have attempted to prevent no deal. Whether their votes are legally binding is unclear.
Maybe no deal always was meant to be the outcome.
Well yes...but a good negotiator also knows that things are flexible or it isn't a "negotiation" and, whilst I don't know what your day-job is, you do seem to see matters in "black or white" as distinct from life's infinite shades of grey!
Well the fewer people who know what one's real objective is in a negotiation the better because other people will only foul things up.
First agree the deal and then persuade your own side why the deal is a good one.
The premise of your point is flawed and so what flows from it is.
I don't think she realised how pointless it was. Hence she allowed preparation for no deal to be half-hearted.
I think MPs understood the situation better than her and the Remain weighted Parliament has played to that extremely well.
The Remain Tories kept her in position in December by supporting her in a no confidence vote, when clearly they didn't have confidence in her.
The longer the keep her in position, the more likely they wil thwart Brexit or make it so bias towards the EU that the UK would (they hope) opt to return, and by sufficiently aligned to facilitate it quickly.
MPs have their own agendas - that I agree with you on wholeheartedly.
But the agenda is quite different whether remain or leave,
The Leavers are often tagged as intransigent, wanting a pure leave, even wanting a no deal at times which is untrue. but the accusation sticks if it is repeated often enough.
But the leave MPs have given ground.
The Remainers not so. They have taken ground.
There are ample clips of Heidi Allen, Anna Soubry... giving it the "we're all leavers now", "a 2nd referendum would undermine democracy", "I support Brexit now, I voted for article 50".
It is clear to me that these people were never pro any sort of Brexit, they were just trying to drag Brexit far enough in their direction until they were comfortable in trying to revoke it.
I think had Davis been in charge of the process and negotiation, we would have left already. He would have planned for a FTA and worked it out with the EU, or left had they been unable to agree but with intent to carry on discussions after leaving.
He wouldn't have gone for a General Election. He would have stuck with the small but manageable majority and got his legislation through.
Richard Taylor
"William Tell could take an apple off your head. Taylor could take out a processed pea."
Sid Waddell
Davis???
If you want to be sure of reaching your destination then make sure you are in the driving seat.
If you just want to be a back seat comedian - join Equity.
Last edited by Graham Breeze; 10-04-2019 at 11:48 AM.
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