Brexit

[Dave_Mole]

...meanwhile the Brexit Party are at 10% in the polls, plummeting from 25% in June.
No matter what you think of Furridge, the party is an irrelevance and any "alliance" with the Tories would only be to help out the failing Brexit Party.....

[Oracle]

...meanwhile the Brexit Party are at 10% in the polls, plummeting from 25% in June.
No matter what you think of Furridge, the party is an irrelevance and any "alliance" with the Tories would only be to help out the failing Brexit Party.....

Not an Irrelevance in strong leave voting northern labour held seats that have been shafted and ignored by corbyns Islington sophistry, who also find Corbyns anti Semitic and IRA supporting overtones Repulsive, also his Marxist underpinnings are abhorrent to Attlee true labour. Even his own MPs don’t want him in power.

Those seats are fertile ground for BXP (used to vote UKIP) that would never vote Tory.

[Muddy Retriever]

I wonder how long it'll be before Muddy tells us a vote for The Brexit party will put the Labour party in power? Actually the other way around works just as well: a vote for the Conservative party - instead of the Brexit party - is potentially a vote for Labour.

You'll be pleased to know that I'm not going to disappoint you. A vote for the Brexit party could indeed put the Labour party in power if the polls narrow from where they are at the moment. This is entirely down to our electoral system, which means the Leave vote will be split in some constituencies. This could deny the Conservative candidate victory with a LibDem or Labour candidate coming through the middle to win instead. In fact this is exactly what did happen at the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election in August.

And no it doesn't work the other way around just as well. At the moment the average poll ranking has the Tories on 39% with the Brexit party on only 10%. In 2015 UKIP won 12.6% of the vote but picked up only one seat. I doubt the Brexit party will win any but they'll surely deny the Tories a fair number.

The Conservatives have no moral superiority over the The Brexit Party to be deserving of government. If anything The Brexit Party is the only party now standing up for Brexiteers. And this new treaty is just the Conservative party sticking together whilst they hoodwink the Leave voters. Think about it. The Conservatives are a mixture of leave and remain. How is Boris going to get the support of Tory Remainers? By Graham's analogy of course: compromise. Which can mean only one thing...... Remain.

I didn't vote leave to compromise. And the Remainers certainly didn't vote Remain to compromise. It was an in out referendum. Boris is selling us out to satisfy his party and reach out to Remainers. But the Remainers were never going to reach out to us.

What is it about the deal Boris agreed that makes you think it is like remaining? The vast majority of people who have been euro-sceptics for many years would disagree with you. And that includes people in the Brexit party like the MEP John Longworth. I think there has already been a couple of Brexit party candidates who have stood down because they disagree with Farage. Even Arron Banks, his old chum and campaign donor has said he supports Boris' deal.

Let's be honest there could have been nothing that Boris had agreed that Farage would accept. He would prefer Brexit not to happen at all than lose the limelight. Dare I say it perhaps he enjoys the trappings of the Brussels gravy train a bit too much.

[noel]

Of course it all depends on whether the Brexit party would take Tory votes or Labour ones. It might be a bit of both.

As always the Daily Mash has an amusing take on this: https://www.thedailymash.co.uk/polit...20191105190454

[Witton Park]

And no it doesn't work the other way around just as well.

It did in Peterborough.

Hard to judge of the information we have as BP haven't stood in a GE, in 2015 UKIP was affected by the Tory promise of a referendum, 2017 UKIP was gone.

I suspect that is they go full bore that BP can pick up 20-30 seats.

[Muddy Retriever]

It did in Peterborough.

Hard to judge of the information we have as BP haven't stood in a GE, in 2015 UKIP was affected by the Tory promise of a referendum, 2017 UKIP was gone.

I suspect that is they go full bore that BP can pick up 20-30 seats.

The Peterborough by-election was held on 6th June. At the time the Brexit Party was at 25% in the polls and the Tories were on 18%. Leavers wanted to give the Tories a good kicking so voted for the Brexit party instead. I know, I was one of them - I voted for the Brexit party at the European elections. It worked, the Tories ditched May, elected Boris and he went on to negotiate a deal head and shoulders better than the one May got. As I said before the Conservatives are at an average of 39% in the polls while the BP is on 10%. How do you think a by-election in Peterborough would go now?

I think the performance of UKIP is a good guide because they went on to get 12.6% of the vote share, which is higher than the BP is polling now. A lot of the voters who supported UKIP then will be tempted towards the Brexit Party now. I would be amazed if they got the number of seats you're suggesting.

[Dave_Mole]

I suspect that is they go full bore

"full bore" like this?

https://metro.co.uk/2019/11/05/brexi...tead-11045172/

or this?
https://www.thenational.scot/news/17...ces-candidate/

or perhaps this?
https://www.edp24.co.uk/news/politic...weet-1-6194317

[Muddy Retriever]

"full bore" like this?

https://metro.co.uk/2019/11/05/brexi...tead-11045172/

or this?
https://www.thenational.scot/news/17...ces-candidate/

or perhaps this?
https://www.edp24.co.uk/news/politic...weet-1-6194317

Mind you they’ll have to go some to have as many racist candidates as Labour won’t they?

[Graham Breeze]

I suppose, given that everyone on here is a fell runner (of sorts), all the Brexit protagonists could accidently come together one day at, say, the urinals of some big fell race and then continue this Forum debate face to face, so to speak.

Although, given the reluctance of some posters to reveal their true selves - would they even know?

[Witton Park]

The Peterborough by-election was held on 6th June. At the time the Brexit Party was at 25% in the polls and the Tories were on 18%. Leavers wanted to give the Tories a good kicking so voted for the Brexit party instead. I know, I was one of them - I voted for the Brexit party at the European elections. It worked, the Tories ditched May, elected Boris and he went on to negotiate a deal head and shoulders better than the one May got. As I said before the Conservatives are at an average of 39% in the polls while the BP is on 10%. How do you think a by-election in Peterborough would go now?

I think the performance of UKIP is a good guide because they went on to get 12.6% of the vote share, which is higher than the BP is polling now. A lot of the voters who supported UKIP then will be tempted towards the Brexit Party now. I would be amazed if they got the number of seats you're suggesting.

The BP might be at 10 - 12 % in the polls, but in perhaps 30-50 seats they would be the challenger rather than the Tories.

Here in Blackburn, I doubt anyone can beat Labour as they would win with a dustbin if it had the red rosette on it, but certainly the Tories have no chance if they were at 50% in the polls.
The BP would have a better chance even if only at 10% nationally.