Off all the responses PHE is the one shown not fit for purpose. As those of us connected to private sector biotech have discovered.
It doesn’t altar the fact that a lot of what is said about testing betrays woeful ignorance of how testing evolves , even by medic commentators.
.Originally Posted by Witton Park
PPE has a shelf life.
Usage is unprecedented.
We agree on some: like greater manufacturing self reliance.
But then: I’ve spent my life in tech manufacturing.
A place which is relied upon , shafted by taxation, and vilified in equal measure.
It really irritates me how pharma is demonised when it takes all the risks , provides all the finance but gets none of the credit.
Last edited by Oracle; 19-04-2020 at 09:02 PM.
When I was a bright young engineer I was involved in the manufacture of the supply of gas (later "British Gas") and also the control of supplies ("National Grid"). At that time the gas industry had to provide gas for a peak demand based on a week that would occur once in 20 years. So for 1039 weeks of the 1040 weeks in the 20 years the industry had excess unused capacity that the customer was paying for. (And in fact were there to be a shortfall the gas would be shut off to industrial users and not households).
I suggest if the taxpayer had been told the NHS was providing PPE for a rainy day that on average might occur once in twenty years (1 in a 1000), rather than buying the latest MRI kit, questions would be asked and very loudly if the justification was for an as-yet-unknown pandemic.
Last edited by Graham Breeze; 19-04-2020 at 09:33 PM.
South Korea spends about 8% of its GDP on health while we spend just under 10%. Who has performed better?
It’s s not just how much you spend but how you spend it. South Korea got it right from an early stage by testing and tracing. We didn’t. Look closer to home and the poster boy for Western Europe is Germany, who have tested many times the number in the UK. Their health system is decentralised unlike ours and unlike us they have utilised private sector labs.
Public Health England has rebuffed numerous offers of help from private sector labs. Why is this Mike? Is it ideology? I really hope not.
Last edited by Muddy Retriever; 19-04-2020 at 09:46 PM.
The role and accuracy of testing is hotly disputed.
As indeed the reason for Germany or South Korea’s death rates.
Has South Korea delayed the inevitable, or is it a population difference?
By way of comparison asthma percentage in UK and such as Spain are double that in Germany and South Korea.
Belgium does similar testing to Germany but is the worst performer.
Medics simply don’t know the answers for certain, it’s all new. Which is why I find the rhetoric from many of them so jarring.:If they all agreed we would go that way. They don’t. But they all want to criticise whatever is done with 2020 hindsight as does miket. Journalists are not helping by ignoring the problem of test validation. Numbers matter nothing, if the test is only 75 percent. Which with 20 percent assymptomatic is highly likely.
What is less in dispute is how PHE has not only rebuffed help , but has also sequestered the PCR machines from the labs ( including OHs,) that could have helped to Develop tests, so is actually hindering response.
Considering that big biotech lab has developed vaccines , monoclonals, Biologics, and routinely uses and manipulates virus genetics: and unlike most university labs, it knows how to control process and validate for regulatory approval.
PHE want sacking by leaving their star players on the touch line, The public health service needs a major restructure.
Like most public sector it is expensive, ineffective and inefficient. But I will wager it has a world class “diversity” manager, pension and holiday days per year.
But no doubt it will get a clap from the public , just as the pharma sector is given another kicking.
Last edited by Oracle; 19-04-2020 at 10:18 PM.
Yes I think I agree with a lot of what you are saying. People are quick to pass judgements when nobody really knows what is the best thing to do.
Belgium has the worst death rate in Europe but yet has one of the most stringent lockdowns. Sweden has adopted a much less strict approach. While having a higher death rate than its Nordic neighbours, it has suffered a lower rate than Britain and much less than Belgium. Population density then must be a factor.
You’ve probably read that in Sweden they believe that Stockholm is three weeks away from achieving herd immunity. If that’s true, it has been achieved with a relatively modest number of deaths and without wrecking their economy.
I guess in a year or two’s time we will know who was wrong and who was right.
Here is the first time I have ever seen a government department being forced to rebut every Single statement in a newspaper “passing judgement”
The times article shredded as a piece of mendacity.
https://healthmedia.blog.gov.uk/2020...sight-article/
It is not as if the NHS does not go through a huge amount of this kit at the "best" of times - theatres, minor operations, catheters, central lines, suturing, attending patients with MRSA/Clostridium Difficile - so each trust would be working through the stock, it would not be wasted. And manufacturing it locally would have all sorts of advantages - jobs, skills, ability to "ramp up" production (why not just increase?). We were warned by SARS/MERS/Swine flu/Ebola - it was going to happen.
There is of course no such thing as fewer deaths, all deaths are just postponed - but give me and others a flatter curve and therefore delayed death please, if possible. The problem is the economic impact this will have. We have seen that many parts of the economy are in fact unnecessary, and bad for the planet as well - a simple example being the fast fashion trade. But this is a huge can of worms.
Not quite Mike. If you insist on having, say 2 years of stock ("just in case we have a pandemic") rather than 2 days (all you really need is enough for today and tomorrow, any more is a comfort blanket) the NHS would be tying up a vast amount of capital that would be better spent on more pressing kit - but I am not ranting my point.
I once toured the Ford production line at River Rouge plant in Detroit observing the assembly of pick-up trucks - the discipline behind a "Just In Time" philosophy has much merit
