I think, quite understandably, no-one wants to draw any conclusions too quickly. Or give a positive message too early. Like we've discussed before during the peak virus months of March, April and early May, when deaths were very high, the testing being done then was (proportionate to now) very minimal. We were identifying c 5,500 new cases each day on average, with most testing only happening on hospital admission, and were getting 1,000 plus death each day. See here https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/Originally Posted by Witton Park
They've since done a reverse crunching of the numbers based on anti-body testing and what not (yeah I know itself not completely reliable) and deduced that the real number of new cases back then was actually likely to be c 100,000 new cases each day, some 20 times higher than identified at the time. Against that backdrop, the then daily death rate of 1,000 doesn't look quite so grim.
Jump to now though and we're identifying 3,000 odd cases each day. Yeah the actual number will be higher and yeah our testing system is not the greatest, but we are doing a far far higher amount of testing so will be identifying proportionately far more cases. Ergo, deaths being recorded now should be much lower than in March/April/May. But might not stay that way if the 3,000 odd new cases each day figures starts to grow - some have hypothesised that it might be doubling every ten days!
But they can't be sure one way or the other....
If you jump to Spain's numbers, where a similar pattern exists but they are a few weeks ahead of us, their deaths are starting to tick up a bit. Not radically yet but again time will tell https://www.worldometers.info/corona...country/spain/
