Quote Originally Posted by Mike T View Post
From my reading, if you allow for the age of those currently being infected, there is not a lot left to explain. Risk of infection/death at 65 is 10 times that at 45, which is 10 times that at 25. And the risk at 85 is 10 times that at 65. So a very steep increase with age. Those at high risk of exposure and of dying died early; we still have plenty who are at high risk of dying, but they are mainly able to socially distance/isolate/quarantine, so the new cases are much younger than before. There has also been some improvement in treatment - delaying ventilation, steroids, avoiding hydroxychlororquine. There is a mutation that some think is more infectious but less lethal, but it has been around for months, and it is not taking over from the other variant. The different age profile seems to be the main thing.
So when the virus first hit UK do you think it almost exclusively targeted the elderly and ill?

It must have been circulating in all of the population. Young and old.

That the younger ones in my home town who have been testing positive have avoided contact with older relatives is hard to believe. You only need to see some of the local press reports on large gatherings to realise that some think there is little to no risk AND act accordingly.
I think there is little to no risk, but still play ball with the regulations.

So if these spikes are genuine spikes, there should be a knock on effect by now.

We have been waiting and seeing for over 3 months since the first easing of lockdown measures and we are still waiting and seeing diddly-squat.